Game No. 163 looms more likely than usual
Wild-card berths attracting a crowd in both leagues
In an occurrence uncommon but not unparalleled, it’s unlikely Major League Baseball’s six divisional races will hinge on the season’s final weekend.
But what of the four wild cards? Be prepared for mass hysteria for several fan bases, potentially to a level we haven’t seen since the final day of the 2011 season.
Sunday marks the eighth-to-last day of the regular-season calendar, and seemingly endless scenarios are still in play for either league’s wild cards. Six teams are within two games of each other on either side. The American League race is particularly crowded, with five teams clinging to varying degrees of hope.
The Astros, only three days ago well-positioned for a run at Detroit and Baltimore for the second AL wild card, quickly plummeted back to the fringe of the race by virtue of three consecutive debilitating losses to the lowly Los Angeles Angels, a team they had previously beaten in 11 of 12 meetings.
Going into the Astros’ disastrous 10-4 loss Saturday night, FanGraphs pegged their wildcard odds at a mere 5.8 percent, two days after they enjoyed a 28 percent chance. Only a 7-0 finish will get them to the 88 wins they probably need to have even a chance to force a tiebreaker game on Oct. 3. Even then, they would require a lot of help. Three-way tie a possibility
Given the congested nature of the standings, a season-ending game No. 163 — a tiebreaker not needed since the Tampa Bay Rays beat the Texas Rangers in 2013 — is very much in play for the teams still vying for the postseason in either league. But how about a three-way tie? Never in the 48 years since baseball’s playoff format expanded beyond the World Series have three teams tied for a spot for October (although at one point last week, the New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants were deadlocked in the battle for the National League’s wild-card spots, and they remain in close proximity.) Could this be the year?
If so, a team could find itself playing in four cities in four days, finishing its season on the road on Oct. 2 only to travel for both games just to reach the wild-card game. The machinations vary based on whether teams tie for one or both wild cards.
In the AL race, oddly enough, the Toronto Blue Jays, Tigers, Orioles, and Astros finish their regular-season slates on the road. (The Seattle Mariners are the only ones in the group to close their schedule at home.) Don’t forget to pack passports. “I’m hoping that we go to L.A. with a lot of question marks about where we’re headed,” Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow said, referring to the final series in Anaheim, Calif., that begins Friday. “I would love for that to be the outcome.”
Luhnow made those com- ments as he watched the Astros take batting practice Friday afternoon at Minute Maid Park. Five hours later, his team suffered a defeat that may prove the death knell of its 2016 campaign: Ken Giles unraveled during the Angels’ six-run ninth. A night later, the bullpen collapsed again. Astros fight to stay afloat
The manner in which the streaky Astros had been winning has left them a razor-thin margin for error. Without their two best starting pitchers in Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers — not to mention a key cog in their lineup in rookie third baseman Alex Bregman — the Astros piecemealed their rotation just enough to maintain relevancy.
Manager A.J. Hinch has for weeks managed as if it were the postseason, operating with a quick hook of his starting pitchers at the first or second sign of trouble and taking full advantage of the 13-man bullpen September roster expansion affords him.
Astros relievers have logged more innings in September than those of any other AL team, a means of mixing and matching unsustainable in any other month and, ultimately, in this one, too.
Even if the Astros scratch and claw their way to a tiebreaker, a bullpen game that leads off with revelatory rookie Chris Devenski may provide them their best chance.
The Astros needed the chips to fall their way on the final day of last season to qualify for the wild-card game at Yankee Stadium without need of a tiebreaker game. They will need even more help this year.
“It makes me a believer,” Hinch said Friday when asked about last year’s final-day experience. “It makes me a believer in having to play the whole schedule to get to where you want to get. We have a full season of proof, and our players do, too. I think it also gives you that extra boost to not quit until the end. … It’s worth playing until the final out if that’s what it takes to get to the playoffs.”
If not for the implementation of the second wild card in 2012, much of this discussion would be moot. If it didn’t already, Friday’s result would have ended the Astros’ postseason chances. The Mariners would be all but eliminated, too.
“It’s absolutely been the right move for baseball,” Luhnow said of the second wild card. “If you think about the number of teams that are potentially in the wildcard hunt in both the National League and American League, it would be less than half of those if there was only one wild card.
“I don’t think it’s diluted the quality of the postseason. I still wish we had two out of three for the wild-card (round) instead of one. You work to get to the playoffs, and there have been teams that win 90-plus games that are one and done. That seems challenging. But it’s still really hard to get to the playoffs, so you get teams that really deserve it.” Shades of 2011?
In his final run working for the Cardinals before the Astros hired him late in 2011, Luhnow was privy to baseball’s most chaotic finish to a season in recent years.
In games that each decided postseason spots on Sept. 28, 2011, Chris Carpenter and the eventual champion Cardinals shut out the Astros at Minute Maid Park, the Atlanta Braves lost to the Philadelphia Phillies in 13 innings, Jonathan Papelbon in Baltimore blew his final game as the Boston Red Sox closer, and Evan Longoria capped a 12-inning win for the Rays over the New York Yankees with a walkoff home run, his second homer of the game.
If the current trajectory of the 2016 race is any indication, the final days of the season could present similar drama for several teams.