Democrats expected to sweep Harris County judicial seats
As Harris County goes, so go most of its judicial races.
That truism appears to be good news for Democrats seeking to scoop up more district court benches in November, when two dozen criminal, civil and family court positions are up for grabs.
Three of the benches are open, while 10 Democrats and 11 Republicans are defending their seats.
“The Republicans are looking at a real uphill battle,” Rice University political scientist Mark Jones said, pointing to disaffection for Trump among some Republicans, which could impact voting patterns down the ballot. “I think the most likely scenario is we’re looking at a repeat of 2008, where we see a near or complete Democratic sweep of the judicial races.”
More so than other candidates, judicial hopefuls typically have trouble breaking out from the pack, due to low name recognition, their position on the ballot and limitations on what they can say on the campaign trail.
Therefore, they campaign en masse by pooling funds through their local political party and often are elected in waves.
Harris County Democrats have fared better in recent presidential election years, and Republicans have found success during mid-term elections.
“The judicial candidates are, basically, at the mercy of the ticket,” said Robert Jara, who is consulting for two Democratic judges. “Whatever the presidential candidate gets, they’re going to be pretty close to that.”
A recent University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs poll showed Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton with a 10-point lead in Harris County over Republican nominee Donald Trump.
If Clinton maintains that gap, she would walk away with the largest margin of victory a Democratic presidential candidate has enjoyed inthe county since 1964.
When President Barack Obama won Harris County by less than two percentage points in 2008, Democrats swept all but four of 26 Harris County district benches on the ballot.
Looking for a repeat, Harris County Democratic Party Chair Lane Lewis said the party is focused on encouraging voters to cast a straight-ticket ballot in November.
“I think you are going to see much more straight Democratic ticket voting. One, because we have the better candidates, and two, because their candidates are just so bad,” Lewis said. “The Republicans are going to lose votes because of Trump.”
Harris County Republican Party Chair Paul Simpson fired back, saying enthusiasm about Clinton does not compare to support for Obama eight years ago. “This is not a wave, and I’ve been saying for months Hillary Clinton is not Barack Obama. She’s the status quo,” Simpson said, adding that traditional Democratic voters may cast their ballots for Trump.
Even so, Texas Southern University political scientist Jay Aiyer said Trump’s controversial candidacy provides a structural advantage for Democratic judges.
“Traditional Democratic voters are inclined to vote straight-ticket, and the same is not necessarily the case on the Republican side because you have a percentage of Republicans that are likely to not vote for (Trump) for president,” Aiyer said.
Where there is variance, Jones said details as small as a candidate’s name could tip the scales. The most common theory to explain why some Republican judges held on in 2008was that voters shied away from Democrats with uncommon names.
“Partisanship drives almost all of it, and then a little bit will be driven by either a real or imagined familiarity or affinity with their name,” he said. rebecca.elliott@chron.com twitter.com/rfelliott
›› See the list of judicial candidates on the ballot at HoustonChronicle.com/judicialraces