Ship Channel remains in eye of storm
Plan eyed to protect Houston’s growing, global petrochemical hub from the next Ike
The waters that make the Houston Ship Channel an important global port and hub of petrochemical activity are the same rising tides that — under the most dire scenarios — could one day cause catastrophe.
To the frustration of many, however, that looming threat of the day when, not if, a powerful storm surge descends on one of Texas’ economic engines — ripping above-ground pipes from their fittings, tossing chemical storage tanks like empty soda cans and deluging entire manufacturing plants in brackish salt water — hasn’t led to enough political and economic pressure to build what some consider the region’s only option for keeping a hurricane from sweeping billions of dollars of Houston investment into the sea.
“We are eight years since Hurricane Ike … and we still don’t have that one plan,” said state Sen. Larry Taylor, R-Friendswood, referencing the last hurricane to wreak havoc across the Houston area. “That’s troubling, but we’re making progress. ... We will need it. It is not a matter of thinking it may happen some day, it will happen.”
With the nation focused on Hurricane Matthew as it continues its march up the East Coast this weekend, some observers have noted Houston’s massive role in world energy production and its exposure to storms that are increasing in intensity make it one of the most at-risk spots where devastation could not only claim local lives and structures, but send shockwaves through the economy.
Ike, which federal authorities concluded caused between $27 billion and $30 billion in direct damage in September 2008 mostly in Galveston and southeastern Harris counties, was the thirdcostliest storm in U.S. history. It also occurred just days before Lehman Brothers historic Wall Street collapse, which many say cost the Gulf region dearly when national attention turned from the hurricane to the gathering economic storm.
Experts in hurricane risk and economics said if Ike had hit landfall 30 miles to the southwest of where it did — which would have put it centered on top of the ship channel — damages easily could have exceeded $100 billion.
Since Ike, billions more in petrochemical investment has poured into the Houston region, along with between 500,000 and 600,000 more people. Add all of
that to the previous risk, and some see a recipe for disaster.
“There is a possibility, under the right storm, of killing a devastating number of people, and having a devastating effect on the economy,” said William Merrell, a Texas A&MUniversity at Galveston marine scientist. “The more we look at it, the more appalling it is.”
Taylor, chairman of the Texas legislature’s Joint Interim Committee on Coastal Barrier Systems, said he is at least optimistic state leaders are taking the threat seriously, and starting to discuss options. The committee was formed to address storm risk along the state’s lengthy coast — home to one in four Texans — and work with federal officials to pay for the project. A $6 billion plan
Specifics vary, but all of the proposals, which supporters call the only option for true protection of Houston and Galveston Bay, is a coastal barrier that would keep a massive storm surge from rushing into the developed areas. A leading proposal is the so-called Ike Dike developed by Merrell after the 2008 storm that surged across Galveston. The dike system would essentially create a barrier keeping surges from hitting Galveston, Harris and Chambers counties. Scientists also have suggested gates that would keep waters from rising in Galveston Bay and the Houston Ship Channel.
The $6 billion project, however, remains only a plan, leaving millions of people in Texas to plan for a possible superstorm as best they can. Their protection has major consequences well beyond Houston and surrounding areas, where between 25 percent and 35 percent of the petrofuels consumed in the U.S. are produced. Half of the nation’s jet fuel is produced on the Texas Gulf Coast.
As a result, thousands of storage tanks line Galveston Bay and the shipping routes, holding massive amounts of petroleum and chemicals. The domino effect
Houston also is exporting new products for the first time. Since Congress lifted the crude oil export ban, crude exports began leaving the Houston Ship Channel. Enterprise Products Partners also made Houston a new exporter of ethane after opening a new terminal this summer. In 2018, Texas will begin shipping liquefied natural gas out of Freeport.
“If we shut down, you start having (manufacturing and energy) plants across the United States shut down,” Merrell said.
When storms descend, shutting the faucet to all those fuels and products is a long, costly process.
“You can’t turn off a switch and leave,” said Hector Rivero, president of the Texas Chemical Council, based in Austin. “In some cases it can take several days to shut down a facility and reduce your inventory.”
Companies — most reluctant to discuss their emergency plans in detail — typically move hazardous chemicals away from coastal plants to reduce the risk of a release, such as floodwaters vaulting something into a tank and rupturing it.
Fear of the next great storm has focused many on preparedness and improvements in their own facilities, experts agreed. Many company have meteorologists of their own or as consultants so they can begin taking action early when a threat seems imminent. Built for hurricanes
Newer facilities are built with hurricanes in mind. Central control rooms at Marathon Petroleum’s Texas City and Galveston Bay refineries were outfitted two years ago to withstand Category 5 hurricane winds. New storage tanks are specifically built for impact resistance related to storms and surging seas. Some have braced concrete buildings with kevlar-like reinforced bars, which have held up to hurricane surges.
Reviving operations after a powerful can be just as complicated, Rivero said, even if the plant was not damaged.
“If our employees homes are blown out or blown over, we have to take care of our employees first,” he said.
Houston’s increased population has fueled economic growth, but also puts many more residents in harm’s way. Ike’s devastation knocked out power to more than 2 million CenterPoint Energy customers. More residences means more without power the next time around. Dire scenarios
Experts agree there will be a next time for a hurricane like Matthew or stronger to make landfall in the U.S., even it’s not imminent on the Texas coast or as strong as some fear. Since 1900, only three hurricanes have made landfall in Texas after Sept. 30, none after Oct. 16. The Atlantic hurricane season officially starts each year on June 1 and ends on Nov. 30.
Officials also disagree on the risk of storms strengthened by climate change and other factors in the Gulf of Mexico. While projections of 30-foot storm surges swamping Houston demonstrate the most dire scenarios, Merrell said the greater likelihood is an Ike-sized storm of 110-mph winds which a coastal barrier could handle.
Without it, however, even a 100-year-storm (meaning such a storm has a one in 100, or 1 percent, chance of occurring in any given year) could be severe, he said, shying away from the gloom and doom of superstorms ripping refineries from their foundations.
“We don’t need to exaggerate the risk,” Merrell said. “It is bad enough.”