BEST ACTOR
This one isn’t as easy to deduce because the evidence doesn’t all point in the same direction.
Let’s look at the criteria. The bestactor winner is usually middle-aged (40 to 60). He usually has been nominated previously in this category. He is often nominated for playing someone noble, preferably in the grip of an illness. And he is often nominated for playing someone completely different from himself, perhaps a historical figure. The chameleon rule applies. On the basis of the chameleon rule, you can eliminate Andrew Garfield (“Hacksaw Ridge”), Ryan Gosling (“La La Land”) and Viggo Mortensen (“Captain Fantastic”). Garfield and Gosling also lose points for being young — 33 and 36, respectively.
It’s possible that Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”) is also eliminated by the chameleon rule. He plays a guy from Massachusetts who always looks like he’s in a bad mood.
Will the academy see that as enough of a departure? I’d say maybe not, except that Denzel Washington’s performances in “Fences” could be seen as not unlike previous Denzel performances. The only difference is that this time his character uses the force of his charm to hurt, not elevate, the people around him.
If we argue both Washington and Affleck into the chameleon category — or argue both of them out of it — that leaves us looking at other factors.
Affleck is 41. Washington is 62. Advantage Affleck. On the other hand, Washington has been nominated in this category before and Affleck hasn’t. Advantage Washington. One more thing: They each give astonishing performances. Advantage neither.
In the end, I expect it will come down to the academy’s preference for grandscale acting, as opposed to quiet introspection. In that case, the choice is clear.
Denzel Washington will win best actor.