These arms carry significant load
Staying healthy is good starting point for rotation that must hold its own
The most pertinent question regarding the Astros’ rotation is not whether it’s good enough on April 3 to contend for a World Series.
It’s whether it’s good enough to keep the Astros in contention through the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.
The answer will gradually reveal itself over the next four months, beginning with Dallas Keuchel’s opening-day start Monday night against the Seattle Mariners. The first step for the Astros was to survive spring training with their arms intact, which they did, save for the absence of Collin McHugh for likely only the first turn or two through the rotation.
The more important tests begin this week, though. If their rotation supports perhaps baseball’s deepest lineup to a point the Astros are leading the American League West in July, the onus will be on general manager Jeff Luhnow to put the finishing touch on his roster ahead of the stretch run.
Starting five
But at least to begin the season, the Astros will trot out the lefthanded Keuchel and righthanders Lance McCullers, Charlie Morton, Joe Musgrove and Mike Fiers. Spring training statistics vary in degrees of relevance depending on the pitcher, but the fivesome’s combined 2.91 ERA in 892⁄3 innings eased some of the concern prevalent in the offseason.
McCullers, the Astros’ promising No. 2 starter, was the lone member of the team’s opening-day rotation with a spring ERA worse than 2.70. The 23-year-old righthander was hit hard — he allowed 13 runs on 20 hits in 16 innings for a 7.31 ERA — but also spent the spring throwing his new changeup much more than he will during the regular season.
Although from a pure talent standpoint the Astros appear one front-line starter short, much of their rotation uncertainty also stems from the fact each of their current top three finished last season on the disabled list. Keuchel (shoulder), McCullers (elbow) and Morton (hamstring) each pitched without issue in spring training, but the health narrative trails them coming into the season.
Keuchel and McCullers specifically had a spotlight on them all spring. After his struggle-filled and injury-shortened 2016, Keuchel is the Astros player on whom there is the most pressure to perform coming into the year.
The 2015 Cy Young Award winner looked closer to his old self during his spring training outings. He allowed five earned runs in 162⁄3 innings.
“In terms of health and stuff and attitude and mindset coming into the year, both these guys are ready to go,” Luhnow said. “This is the top outcome that we could’ve hoped for.”
A pleasant surprise
Then there is Morton, the biggest surprise of Astros spring training. The 33-year-old sinkerballing righthander was the team’s best starter in Grapefruit League action and opened eyes with his radar-gun readings in the 94-96 mph range. Manager A.J. Hinch considered Morton to start the second game of the season over McCullers.
If the Astros can keep Morton healthy and the pitcher can maintain the stuff he displayed in Florida, he will signify a marked upgrade over departed free agent Doug Fister. A full season of Musgrove, a breakout candidate in his second major league season, should also make for built-in improvement from the 15th-ranked ERA (4.37) of last year’s rotation.
But even if everything breaks right for the Astros, the pressure will be on Luhnow in July to bolster their rotation for August, September and October.