WILD, WILD WEST
As good as the Rockets have been this season, the Warriors and Spurs remain favorites to capture the Western Conference
The Warriors are built to win a championship.
The old faithful Spurs can never be counted out.
The Rockets have exceeded expectations this season and are determined to shock their critics.
The Clippers always have something up their sleeves. The Jazz have steadily improved to become a playoff threat. The Thunder have a superstar capable of carrying the team.
The Grizzlies always cause trouble.
Needless to say, the Western Conference side of the NBA’s postseason bracket has a lot to offer.
After three rounds of what will undoubtedly be entertaining basketball, one team is going to be standing atop the West.
This year, to get there, it’s going to take great defense, perfect timing and a little luck.
It’s easy to pick Golden State to reign supreme as Western Conference champs for the third straight year. They picked up an MVP over the summer and became the team everyone loves to hate when Kevin Durant left Oklahoma City to be a Warrior.
The reigning kings
With the addition of Durant, the Warriors essentially became a year-round All-Star team. They have the league’s best record (65-14 entering play Saturday), are seemingly healthy (Durant is returning from injury this weekend) and have the experience of playing long into the postseason.
Everything goes through the Warriors.
“A lot of being successful in the playoffs is about matchups,” said John Lucas, a longtime NBA player (currently a coach with the Rockets). “The Warriors are a hard matchup because they do a lot of things really well. They are hard to defend, they defend well. They have good individual players but also play really well as a team. You have to look at how you can match up to all off that.”
Like the Warriors, the Rockets are a hard matchup for a lot of teams. That’s a strength for them as they head into the postseason.
The Rockets have an open and free offense.
They aren’t afraid to take 3-pointers, averaging more attempts than any other team at nearly 40 per game. They have MVP candidate James Harden, whom several players in the league call the “toughest guy to guard,” plus they have a supporting cast full of guys who have the ability to step up.
What the Rockets need to have a chance to plow through the West is for those other players to step up in big ways. They also need timing on their side.
When the Rockets are on, when their shots are falling, they are dangerous. That brand of offense — 3 after 3 after 3 — is tough to defend when it’s working. When it’s not, the Rockets have to adjust and rely on other things.
Defense must be constant
“You have to have great defense,” forward Trevor Ariza said. “Any team that is getting through the playoffs has to be able to defend and has to be able to do that all the time because you don’t always have a great offensive night.”
That’s what the Spurs — the team with the best defensive rating in the league — rely on. That’s what makes San Antonio scary in a seven-game series.
Second in defensive rating? Golden State.
The Rockets rank No. 13 in the NBA in that category. Defensive rating isn’t everything, certainly, but the stout defensive teams — the Spurs, Warriors, Jazz, Grizzlies — can use that to their advantage to wear down teams in the long stretches of the postseason.
Role players go a long way in the playoffs, too. Two years ago when the Warriors won it all, Andre Iguodala instead of one of the Golden State stars — Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green — took home NBA Finals MVP honors.
In addition to his stellar defense against LeBron James, Iguodala averaged 16.3 points and 5.8 rebounds per outing in the 2015 Finals.
There’s always a player who rises in the postseason. Guys like Ray Allen in 2012 with the Heat, Derek Fisher with the 2010 Lakers, Robert Horry and Steve Kerr in nearly every playoff series in which they played.
Whose star will ascend?
“Someone always emerges,” Lucas said. “A few will this year just like they always do. Someone will have to for anyone to win the West.”
The Rockets have options there: Ariza, Eric Gordon, Lou Williams, Clint Capela.
“We have the kind of players here who can do that,” Gordon said. “We have multiple guys who can get hot on any given night. That’s important in the playoffs, and we feel good about all the weapons in this locker room.”
Combine the offense, the defense, playing well at the right time and big performances from role players, you almost have your Western Conference champ.
All that’s left is a little luck. Avoiding injuries, not getting stuck with too many bad calls, all the things outside the control of the players and coaches are important, too.
In a week, the postseason journey begins.
Every team is capable, hungry and ready to win.
But only one will emerge from the Western Conference and have the chance to play for the NBA title.
The Rockets can do it if things fall into place, but it will be far from easy.
Winning the West never is.