Rotation holding its own
Headed by a solid 1-2 punch, the starting pitching is a plus.
NEW YORK — The Astros’ rotation came into the season mired in uncertainty.
Dallas Keuchel was coming off a poor season in which he battled a shoulder injury. Shoulder and arm issues had limited Lance McCullers Jr. to 14 starts last year. Charlie Morton hadn’t pitched in a regular-season game in 12 months.
Among the elite
Yet as the Astros (2511) close in on the quarter mark of the regular season with the best record in baseball, they do so in large part because of their starting pitching. It’s expected general manager Jeff Luhnow will pursue a starter as the July 31 trade deadline nears, but the Astros’ rotation has proved to be in much better shape than many anticipated.
Coming into Sunday’s doubleheader against the New York Yankees (21-12), the Astros ranked fifth in the majors in starting pitching ERA (3.48) and second in walks plus hits per innings pitched (1.20).
Keuchel, 29, is not only back to pitching at an elite level but he’s on a better pace than he was at this point of his 2015 roll to the Cy Young Award.
Keuchel’s 1.69 ERA through eight starts ranks fourth among major league starters. After a season in which his pinpoint command eluded him, the lefthander is back to spotting pitches with precision and has been pounding the bottom third of the strike zone more than ever.
Having logged a major league-leading 582⁄3 innings, Keuchel (6-0) is inducing grounders on 64.4 percent of the balls put in play against him. His ground-ball rate is the best in the AL and second best in the majors, behind Rockies lefthander Kyle Freeland (65.9).
The start to McCullers’ season has been nearly as encouraging for the Astros. Elevated perhaps more than anyone by the team’s offseason acquisition of veteran catcher Brian McCann, McCullers, 23, has developed this season into much more of a pitcher; he no longer depends upon his power curveball.
Armed with improved command, McCullers (31) has cut his walk rate in half — from 5.00 per nine innings last season (81 innings) to 2.42 through 481⁄3 this year.
The changeup with which he has tinkered dating to spring training has emerged as a more-thanviable third pitch, which means hitters can no longer “just sit straight or breaking ball,” as manager A.J. Hinch put it.
“We’ve always impressed upon him that he could be a really good pitcher,” Hinch said of McCullers. “His fastball’s really good, so it started with belief in his fastball and his ability to handle the strike zone. And he does that with his two-seamer a little bit better than his four-seamer. Then as the fastball command started to increase his confidence, the changeup started to come behind that.”
Reinforcements sought
The ceiling of the rotation as a unit will be dictated by health and whether Luhnow parlays a package of top prospects into a frontline starter in July.
Morton (4-2, 3.63 ERA) has been solid as their No. 3 starter but would fit better as No. 4.
The Astros have overcome struggles from their back two starters, Joe Musgrove and Mike Fiers, because of Hinch’s leveraging of his bullpen and a lineup with a knack for comebacks.
Musgrove (2-3) has a 5.02 ERA in 372⁄3 innings while battling through mechanical adjustments in his delivery. Fiers (1-1) enters his start Sunday with a 5.64 ERA in 301⁄3 innings and having allowed 14 home runs, tied with San Diego’s Jered Weaver for most in the majors.
A lack of upper-level pitching depth has kept Musgrove from being in danger of a demotion to Class AAA or Fiers from banishment to the bullpen. Collin McHugh is most likely a non-factor until the second half of the season as he attempts to rehab from an elbow impingement in his pitching (right) arm. Long reliever Brad Peacock is probably next in line to start if needed.
Prospects biding time
Prospects Francis Martes and David Paulino could soon garner consideration, though Martes hasn’t pitched well in his first exposure to Class AAA and Paulino is just back from a bone bruise in his elbow.
Class AAA starter Brady Rodgers is out for the season and at least a good portion of next after recently undergoing Tommy John surgery.
But a rotation that in reality needs to get the Astros to July 31 hasn’t been an issue through 36 games. Another injury would test their lack of depth, but the level of skepticism about the Astros’ rotation coming into the season has proven to be exaggerated.
No lack of confidence
“We knew what we had in house,” McCullers said. “We know what we’re capable of if we’re all out there and we’re healthy and we’re throwing the ball well. I think with the way the defense plays behind us and the way the catching staff … (has) been able to help a lot of the guys and play back there has been huge.
“I think that we’re just doing what we’re supposed to be doing. I think we have a good team here. We can do some pretty cool things. Everyone does their job. It’s our job to go out there and give the team a chance to win, and I think for the most part we’ve done a pretty good job at that.”