Another ‘all of the above’ future to fuel cars

Electricity generation has moved in dramatic fashion toward an “all of the above” strategy, especially in Texas, where wind and solar are responsible for an increasing amount of power.

Transportation, on the other hand, is still largely dependent on gasoline and diesel. Recent announcements from Volvo and Tesla, however, signal a sea change. Volvo has pledged to become the first major car manufacturer to go allelectric. Tesla has delivered the first of its Model 3 all-electric cars.

Transportation’s future has begun to shift. Today, it makes up roughly onethird of U.S. energy demand and depends almost entirely on oil.

Efforts to incorporate ethanol, biodiesel, hydrogen and natural gas have hit problems — corn-based ethanol has driven up food prices, for example — and penetration remains low.

The lower power density of these alternatives, coupled with an underdeveloped network of fueling stations, has stymied their use. They have done little to reduce carbon emissions. Clean diesel, a highly efficient technology, isn’t an oxymoron, but the Volkswagen scandal soured those prospects.

So something else is required to shrink transportation’s carbon footprint.

That doesn’t mean a quick end for the internal combustion engine. Electric vehicles will be a niche market for the foreseeable future. But the coming decades give us time to prepare for challenges ahead:

• Without big jumps in efficiency and conservation, an all-electric fleet would require doubling existing base load electricity generation.

• Grid-scale storage would enable more solar and wind power, but that would require investment and research.

• Until the costs of replacements can match gasoline and diesel, fossil fuels will retain a price advantage.

But these challenges won’t undermine the push for electric vehicles. Change is coming, and it won’t be stopped.