Growth of electric cars may exceed forecasts

Electric cars will become a regular feature of global roadways within the next two decades, increasing far faster than many government forecasts predict, according to a study by the research firm Wood Mackenzie.

The study predicts that by 2035 there will be 350 million electric cars on the road — representing 21 percent of the total vehicles — as world governments seek to reduce carbon dioxide emissions to combat climate change.

That is a far more bullish outlook than held by the U.S. government, which predicts that by 2040, electric vehicles will only represent 10 percent of total U.S. vehicle sales — sales, mind you, not vehicles on the road.

Electric vehicles represent an existential threat to the oil industry, which provides close to 90 percent of the energy used by the transportation sector.

A report by Bloomberg Energy Finance last month predicted that by 2040, electric vehicle sales would displace 8 million barrels a day of oil production — nearly the output of Saudi Arabia. Some portion of those losses would likely be made up by increased demand for natural gas, which is used primarily for electricity generation and burns cleaner than coal.

But the outlook for natural gas is also uncertain, as solar panels and wind turbines continue to fall in cost, the Wood Mackenzie report said.

“On a per-watt basis, the scenario forecasts a drop in solar costs by about 60 percent between 2015 and 2025, and by a further 20 percent by 2035,” said Paul McConnell, research director of global trends for Wood Mackenzie. “Wind costs will come down by about half in that 20-year period, and energy storage technologies, needed to underpin intermittent generation, will fall by about 80 percent.” james.osborne@chron.com twitter.com/osborneja