Experts: GOP not at risk in 2018

Political scientists say state Republicans will keep control in Texas

AUSTIN — At the five-top table in the corner at Russell’s Bakery, a northwest Austin restaurant and coffee bar, the conversation among the five women, all self-described as “recovering Republicans,” veered from the signature cinnamon rolls and traffic to President Donald Trump and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick.

“I have two questions I’d like to know the answer to: Is there any way for a Democrat to win a state office next year, and what would it take for some Republicans to lose in this state?” Chrys Langer, a 47-year-old tech consultant and mother of three, asked a reporter sitting at a nearby table. “Politics has taken a turn for the worse, in my opinion, in Austin with the bathroom bill and all kinds of other conservative-male nonsense and in the White House with — well, with Trump being Trump.”

Recently, that means trouble as Trump’s approval ratings have continued to drop to new lows, even in redder-than-red Texas to just above 50 percent.

The others at the table quickly nodded in agreement, a reaction similar on a recent morning to what other Texans voiced at other coffee shops in Austin, the place that longtime Republican Gov. Rick Perry famously called the blueberry in a bowl of tomato soup for its Democratic bent.

The same questions came up

over coffee in solidly Republican Georgetown, in Pflugerville — an Austin suburb known for its progressive and libertarian tinges — and even in some places in the Houston area, which took on a blue tinge in a year when voters elected Democrats to county seats.

“I’m conservative and a Republican, but I just wonder why some of these issues they keep fighting over in Austin are so damn important,” said Allen Cullen, 38, a consulting engineer, while sipping his morning joe at a Pecan Street joint. “I think a lot of people are getting tired of it. They want things to move ahead, get out of the ditch.”

No hope for Democrats

Some Texas voters, it appears, seem to be asking the question more and more frequently, as if they are somehow unhappy with the Republican status quo of nearly two decades and may be yearning for a change in the way the GOPled state government does its business. Or, they just want their flavor of Republicanism to win in the 2018 elections.

“There’s almost no way Republicans can lose to Democrats next year, in a state as red as Texas, even if Buffy the Clown was running for governor, but the real fights will probably be between Republicans who are moderates and conservatives,” said Lee Reed, 65, a Georgetown rancher who said he supports both Gov. Greg Abbott and Patrick on most issues and self-identifies as a “stick-in-the-mud” Republican.

In interviews with voters of both parties, from Houston to suburban San Antonio to Dallas to Austin, the question comes up time and time again, as does an underlying frustration with governments in both Washington and Austin.

Despite that, more than a dozen political scientists and consultants interviewed by the Chronicle said they see almost no chance that Republicans will lose hold of their 23year grip on statewide elective offices during next year’s elections, despite the fact that Democrats made notable inroads in Dallas and Houston a year ago when Trump won Texas by just nine percentage points — down from previous double-digit support of Republican presidential candidates.

“There isn’t any way Democrats can win statewide office in Texas, short of some astounding collapse of the Republicans in Washington or Austin,” said Cal Jillson, a political scientist at Southern Methodist University. “Winning is a habit, and so is losing. The Democrats right now have no well-known candidate, no bench, their funding has evaporated, and they have no experience in their volunteer base. The Republicans have all of that.

“And at the end of the day, the Republicans who say they’re not satisfied with things will vote for a Republican because, with the polarization of the political process in recent years, Democrats are now seen as enemies of the state, and they won’t jump across and vote for them.”

Weak competition

Jillson’s sentiments echoed those of all the others, even with the so-called “Trump Factor” that Democrats are touting as a key to some unexpected victories in the November 2018 elections.

“Trump’s approval rating would have to drop into the teens where it might hurt Abbott and Patrick and the other Republicans on the ballot in Texas, and even then I doubt the effect would be significant,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political scientist at the University of Houston. “Even though the Democrats will try to tie Abbott and Patrick as close to Trump as they can, every time they get a chance, they can distance themselves from Trump because Texas voters in a midterm election pay more attention to state issues than Washington.”

According to a recent Real Clear Politics national poll, Trump’s approval rating has dropped steadily since January to an Oct. 10 rating of 55.4 unfavorable and 38.9 favorable. Another poll shows Trump’s approval in Texas has slipped from 54 to just over 50 percent during the same period.

Add to that the slowly improving Texas economy, even with the recovery from Hurricane Harvey, and that creates a significant issue for Democrats, who have not announced the choice of party leaders to challenge Abbott. So far, only two relatively unknown candidates are running: Dallas leather bar owner Jeffrey Payne and San Antonio businessman Tom Wakely.

Both say they believe they have a chance by tapping into voter discontent with Republican incumbents over skyrocketing property taxes, the controversial bathroom bill and the passage of a ban on sanctuary cities among other issues. So does Kathie Glass, a Libertarian Party candidate for governor, who hopes to tap not only into that discontent among Republicans, but especially among small-government tea party activists who are disenchanted with the way Republicans have enlarged government during their years in control. One reason is that she thinks Democrats “are not feeling as disenfranchised in Texas as Republicans are” — especially with Trump in the White House.

“People who are sick of the way Republicans have been governing during their years in power, who are tired of the cronyism (and) who don’t want more government, I am their alternative,” she said over coffee in Austin. “Republicans have owned everything in Texas for 25 years, and they now own everything in Washington, so there can’t be any more excuses.”

Protest votes

Mark Jones, a political scientist at Rice University, said Glass could have the most to gain in the 2018 elections if Republicans cast protest votes for someone other than a GOP candidate, much as Trump caused Republicans to vote for Libertarian Gary Johnson in the 2016 presidential race. In the end, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton only did one percent better than Barack Obama, though Democrats won several local races in Houston and Dallas, he said.

“Donald Trump will definitely drag the Republican ticket down in Texas from where it would normally be, and Republicans should be worried about three congressional races ( John Culberson in Houston, Pete Sessions in Dallas and Will Hurd in areas between San Antonio to El Paso),” Jones said. “Without the negative of Trump, it would be a traditional Republican win. Next year, Abbott will have the coattails that will help the other Republicans on the ballot, even though they won’t be as long as they were in 2014.”

But even if some Democrats think Trump may be their best friend against Republicans in the upcoming election, Jerry Polinard, a political science professor at the University of Texas-Rio Grande Valley, said Republicans continue to have a wide lead over Democrats, who have yet to announce a top-tier, wellknown candidate running for any statewide office in 2018.

Even so, while sipping coffee at a Starbucks in San Marcos, Tyler McAdams, a 27-year-old grad student at Texas State University, wonders aloud about when the GOP’s control over Texas may end — and which party might replace them.

“That’s the big question,” he said.

“Winning is a habit, and so is losing. The Democrats right now have no well-known candidate, no bench, their funding has evaporated, and they have no experience in their volunteer base. The Republicans have all of that.” Cal Jillson, political scientist at Southern Methodist University

“There’s almost no way Republicans can lose to Democrats next year, in a state as red as Texas, even if Buffy the Clown was running for governor, but the real fights will probably be between Republicans who are moderates and conservatives.” Lee Reed, self-identified “stick-in-the-mud” Republican