BIG DECISIONS AHEAD
Texans owner Bob McNair must decide whether his GM and coach are capable of reversing club’s course in 2018
JACKSONVILLE, victory during his Fla. four — years When coaching this broken the Texans. season is • finally When over, this backward Bill O’Brien season will have is finished, recorded general one playoff manager Rick Smith will have engineered six above .500 campaigns since he arrived on Kirby Drive back in June 2006 and still only have three postseason wins to his name. • The owner of it all? • Bob McNair’s Texans enter a meaningless Sunday against the AFC South-leading Jaguars losers of seven of their last nine and at 4-9 overall, which is the third-worst record in the AFC and tied for 28th out of 32 teams in the league in 2017.
Is it piling on to point out that Houston’s football team is 110-143 all-time and still hasn’t been past the divisional round of the playoffs since its 2002 inception?
Nope. Those are just indisputable facts.
And the above numbers should be at the core of McNair’s upcoming offseason decisions. Why accept the status quo? Why reward annual mediocrity — or much worse?
How badly does McNair really want to win, 16 years into owning the Texans?
His football team went an NFLworst 2-14 five years ago — suddenly ending the Gary Kubiak era and bringing O’Brien to Houston — and feels like it’s staring at a 5-11 or 6-10 season right now.
At Jacksonville, hosting AFCleading Pittsburgh (11-2) on Christmas Day, then at Indianapolis to close out 2017.
I’m feeling generous — happy holidays, everyone — so let’s say the Texans somehow win two of their next three (and don’t just lose out, as many of you are now predicting).
Find me another owner in the cutthroat, constantly changing world of professional football who would reward a highly disappointing 6-10 season during the fourth year with a multi-year contract extension.
Name another billionaire who would respond to 2-14 and 6-10 seasons during a five-year span with a “go get ’em next year!” pat on the back for his overprotected GM.
As I was saying: McNair again has some serious decisions to make. One-year extension for O’Brien?
Some of you love to overanalyze every decision A.J. Hinch makes and go after Mike D’Antoni as soon as the Rockets drop a couple games. Some of those same people have been mumbling “injuries, injuries, injuries” since J.J. Watt and Whitney Mercilus went down in Week 5.
Nevermind that Watt played even fewer games (three) last season, and the Texans still won their division (and, gasp, a playoff game) with the increasingly loathed Brock Osweiler at quarterback.
What were the Texans supposed to be this year?
If memory serves, I had them somewhere between 7-9 and 9-7. Which means no one believed entering 2017 that this was going to be a great (or even very good) team.
First-round pick Deshaun Watson peeled back our collective eyelids and wowed us for five games. The Texans also were 3-4 overall during his often brilliant time on the field and still struggled with the same issues — finishing off close games, beating better opponents, time management and mastery of all four quarters — that have plagued the team since the 2014 debut of the uneven O’Brien-Smith partnership.
I’m waiting a couple more games before I officially weigh in on O’Brien’s future. Right now, I’m leaning toward a short one-year extension and one more shot with Watson, which would set up 2018 as a true prove-it season for a gritty coach who has often been his own worst enemy.
As always, Smith’s tenure is more complex.
He traded up for Watson. His name is ultimately attached to the best current Texans (DeAndre Hopkins, Jadeveon Clowney) wearing red and blue. And for all of the criticism the GM has received since 2013, many of the names Texans apologists keep playing the wait-untilnext-year card for aren’t in uniform without Smith’s direction.
But then there’s the embarrassing, paper-thin offensive line. And a defensive secondary that has only gotten worse. And the Duane Brown situation. And not franchising A.J. Bouye, who’s now a critical piece of a Jacksonville defense that leads the NFL in average points allowed (15.5) and ranks second in total yards (291.6).
You can say “injuries” all you want. I know this roster wasn’t good enough to compete for anything serious when the season began and always lacked the athletic depth required to overcome the problems that good NFL teams face annually. Weighing stability vs. overhaul
These Texans slept through free agency, despite having cash to spend, and entered training camp knowing their offensive line was a Week 1 mess in waiting.
All that — and sending a 2018 second-round pick to Cleveland just to get rid of Osweiler — equals job security?
The Jaguars were an abysmal 3-13 last year. Jacksonville fired its coach (after losing to the Texans), gave the full-time job to O’Brien’s longtime friend, Doug Marrone, and added Tom Coughlin as executive vice president of football operations.
The Jaguars are 9-4 a year later because of their NFL-best defense, built piece by piece for years, and an improved Blake Bortles. And because Jacksonville finally got tired of the same old disappointing show.
Firing and hiring can be overrated in a league prone to overreaction. Annual stability sometimes really is a strength.
Can the Texans again be a 12-4 team in a couple years? Host their first conference championship?
Are they truly on the right path as an organization toward taking the next elusive step — you know, winning a second-round playoff game — or is just going to be another series of annual excuses and disappointments?
McNair has some decisions to make.
He should remember that his acceptance of the status quo has his Texans at 4-9 in 2017 and 110-143 all-time. brian.smith@chron.com twitter.com/chronbriansmith