Grieder: Trump’s criticism of NAFTA is nerve-wracking
analysts were expecting.
More importantly, I would argue, is the president’s unmistakable enthusiasm for employment gains.
“JOBS, JOBS, JOBS!” Trump tweeted on Friday, after the Department of Labor released the February jobs report.
“Unemployment filings are at their lowest level in over 48 years. Great news for workers and JOBS, JOBS, JOBS!” he tweeted on March 1, in response to another Department of Labor update about initial jobless claims.
It’s hard to quantify the impact of comments like these. But as president, Trump has the largest bully pulpit in the world; that would be true even if he didn’t use Twitter. And because Trump is the head of state, his rhetoric matters.
That being the case, I think we should condemn Trump’s “locker room talk” and gratuitous ad hominems. We also should be concerned about his off-the-cuff commentary about foreign policy. Sends clear message
But we can nonetheless recognize that Trump has been sending a relatively clear message to investors and industry: he wants them to build, spend and expand their operations in America.
The same was true of Rick Perry, the longestserving governor in Texas history. He didn’t create the “Texas model” that he touted while talking up the state’s record of economic growth and job creation. But during his 14 years as governor, Perry took every opportunity to talk about economic growth and job creation. His priorities were quite clear. It’s no wonder so many CEOs found the message intriguing.
Trump’s message is less compelling than Perry’s was, from my perspective, because the president has a less sophisticated view of the economic development than our governor did.
Perry, to his credit, accepted that the world can change and accordingly embraced economic diversification. Trump, by contrast, is oddly determined to bring back coal mining and reverse globalization. Negotiating tactic
That’s why I’ve been more pessimistic than most of the business leaders I’ve spoken with since the election. I never doubted that Trump would be willing to sign tax reform, or that a cut to the corporate tax rate could pass a Republicancontrolled Congress. But the president is a longtime critic of free trade and globalization. He’s been a critic of NAFTA since the agreement was first proposed in the 1980s.
As a Texan, all of that makes me nervous. I’ve been wondering if I should sell the condo I own in Austin, actually. It’s been a great investment thus far, but it’s not the kind of asset one could, if necessary, hide under the mattress.
The tariffs Trump proposed last week might be a negotiating tactic. I think that some business leaders are assuming they must be, because we all know that trade wars are not good and no one wins them, really. But Trump, unfortunately, may be an exception.
“Trade wars are good, and easy to win,” the president tweeted on March 2.
Thus far, the national economy has been more resilient than I was expecting. But I don’t see the good news we’ve been getting, on that front, as a reason to get complacent.