How they match up
Guards
As much as all playoff teams can cause opposing coaches headaches and sleepless nights, the prospect of defending James Harden and Chris Paul seems particularly vexing. For most teams, that is a reaction to how devastating they have been one-on-one and how relentless the Rockets have been at getting them in isolation situations to go to work.
Against the Timberwolves, it has been about defending them in pick-androll. Both also had their familiar moments finishing off wins. The Timberwolves’ backcourt also has been outstanding. Jimmy Butler was an All-Star with the Timberwolves in the race for third in the West before he was injured. Jeff Teague played against the Rockets like the All-Star he was in 2016, averaging 18 points on 54.2 percent shooting in those four games.
Edge: Rockets. The Timberwolves backcourt is far better than many appreciate with Butler’s impact on both ends of the floor helping to make the T-Wolves a much better team than a typical eighth seed. The Rockets combination of Paul and Harden, however, has controlled games and has been outstanding in closing out close games, a key in the postseason.
Forwards
P.J. Tucker does not post up often, if ever, and Taj Gibson does not work one-on-one inside often, but it would be fun to see the hand-to-hand combat against another if those occasions do occur. Tucker’s impact defensively is so great in part because of his ability to switch on everyone from Jeff Teague to Karl-Anthony Towns. He has made 55.6 percent of his 3s against the Timberwolves, but will take on an even greater role if Ryan Anderson does not play with the T-Wolves often giving up pickand-pop 3-pointers to protect the lane. Trevor Ariza’s play also becomes more crucial because of an injury with Luc Mbah a Moute out.
The T-Wolves’ Andrew Wiggins can be an X-factor. Wiggins struggled badly in the first two meetings with the Rockets, but was more effective in the latter two games. Gibson’s stellar interior defense is less of a factor against a team that takes him out to the 3-point line.
Edge: Even. The T-Wolves should have the edge with Wiggins, but the 3-point shooting of Tucker and Ariza tend to negate that. Gibson is an outstanding finisher in the lane, averaging 8.5 points against the Rockets, one fewer than Tucker has against the TWolves.
Center
Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the NBA’s top young centers, an outstanding scorer inside and in the midrange with 3-point touch if he is left open. Towns averages 21.3 points on 54.5 percent shooting this season, along with 12.3 rebounds, surpassing all those numbers in the matchups with the Rockets.
Clint Capela, however, has held his own in the matchup. His 18.8 points were second only to Harden in games against the Timberwolves, with Capela making 78.9 percent of his shots against the Timberwolves. He has seemed especially determined to make Towns run with him, getting his share of possessions in which he has beaten Towns down the floor. He has averaged about 29 minutes against the Timberwolves with Towns on the floor for 35. Capela will have to play with that same energy for greater minutes to match up with the Timberwolves’ young star.
Edge: Timberwolves. Towns does not have to dominate, but the T-Wolves do need Towns to be sensational. He’s capable, but the Rockets will try to make him work defensively, either defending pick-and-roll, switching or getting back as Capela runs the floor, likely a mix of all three. Capela is an underappreciated key to what the Rockets do, a point Minnesota coach Tom Thibodeau has been making for two seasons. This will be one of the more interesting matchups.
Bench
With Luc Mbah a Moute out, the Rockets’ bench could be limited to start the series if Ryan Anderson is also not ready to go. Anderson has excelled against the Timberwolves and the Rockets would like to be able to go to him with the second unit again and to have the option of playing their small lineups with either Anderson or P.J. Tucker playing as a backup center. The lateDecember addition of Gerald Green seems even more important now that Mbah a Moute is out.
Eric Gordon has in many ways had a better season than when he was Sixth Man of the Year, with his defense on the ball and in switches vastly underrated. The T-Wolves have one of the great
instant offense sixth men in Jamal Crawford and looked to fortify their bench with the addition of Derrick Rose, whose top game in Minnesota was against the Rockets. Gorgui Dieng, Tyrus Jones and Nemanja Bjelica all can have moments, but are not as reliable as scorers as Crawford or the Rockets reserves.
Edge: Rockets. Even shorthanded, the Rockets should have a significant advantage off the bench with Green and Gordon. That is a bit misleading because the point guard for the Rockets’ second unit is Chris Paul, giving the Rockets an advantage at the position against most teams. If Anderson is out, the Rockets likely will need good play from Nene.
X-Factor
While the Rockets spent April trying to mix in rest with the pursuit of rhythm, the T-Wolves chased every win they could get, culminating in a scintillating overtime win on the season’s final night to get into the playoffs.
The T-Wolves could be playoff-ready having had to play with that kind of pressure and intensity for weeks, or they could exhale and feel just happy to be there, at least to start the series, having accomplished so much just to make it. The Rockets will have to regain their intensity and focus. The T-Wolves are among the NBA’s top teams in points off turnovers and second-chance points. They make teams pay for sloppiness. The Rockets will have to be ready to start the series, rather than lose homecourt advantage while working their way back to top form.
They also have the confidence that comes with 65 wins and a series sweep of the Timberwolves. That should carry them through the customary rough spots in a playoff series.
Edge: Rockets.
Prediction
Rockets in 5 games. The series should be much more difficult that many seem to expect. The Timberwolves finished eighth, but they are not a typical eighth seed. They were in the race for the third seed when Jimmy Butler went down. He looked ready for the postseason in the final games of the regular season and with him, the Timberwolves are a much better team than the top seed normally faces in the first round. The Rockets do have the advantage of styles.
The Timberwolves’ defense has been shaky all season. The Rockets tend to put up big numbers against teams with defensive shortcomings and their own defense has improved to sixth in the NBA, third since P.J. Tucker moved into the starting lineup Feb. 7. The Rockets have excelled in close games and should expect a few games to come down to the final minutes, when the Rockets have been their best.