What’s over the horizon
Two energy executives offer their predictions for what’s on the horizon
Two executives offer their predictions on how the offshore industry will look far in the future.
What does the future hold for offshore drilling? Matt McCarroll, CEO of Fieldwood Energy of Houston, and Carri Lockhart, Statoil’s senior vice president for offshore North America, provide their perspectives.
The key: making money
It is tempting to imagine that OTC conventioneers in 2068 will come to Houston to gawk at robotic drilling rigs capable of operating on the ocean floor along with subsea drones designed to transport and connect pipe, produce and separate product and safely load submarine tankers in ultradeep waters. If that sounds fantastic, it is: the kind of stuff that premieres in Hollywood, not the halls at OTC.
Why not? Simple. Offshore oil and gas development is not a science project. It needs to make money. Exploration and production technology must be in line with the market value of the resources produced.
There is a reason today’s derricks, pipe and drill bits bear a strong resemblance to the basic mechanics of Spindletop 117 years ago: The price of oil can only command so much investment in technology and still make a healthy return. Will we see the $600 oil needed to justify ultra-hightech marvels? Unlikely.
A safer prediction is that by 2068 in the U.S., the rest of the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic and Pacific coasts will be open for exploration and production.
Innovations will be introduced all along the way. We certainly will see technologies that enable production in deeper water, at higher pressures and temperatures. And there will be greater automation.
All of this bodes well for attendance at the 100th anniversary of OTC, save one final prediction: There will be fewer total companies operating offshore. But take heart. The ones that do will be exceptionally skilled at it. — Matt McCarroll
The future is low carbon
The oil and gas sector is facing turbulent times, even as the oil price starts to rebound. Three trends will shape our industry over the next decades:
A. The move toward energy solutions with a lower carbon footprint.
B. Managing our cost structures to be resilient.
C. Redefining how we work using digital solutions.
We believe the future is low carbon, yet we know that oil and gas are necessary to supply energy to a growing global population. We are already producing oil and gas with a lower footprint than ever before. Offshore oil and gas development in complement with offshore wind farms could lower it even further.
We must have resilient cost structures. We believe the future is subsea and that we cross new boundaries with smaller platforms, longer tiebacks, and autonomous/unmanned operations. As leaders we must shape and guide our industry in that direction while ensuring zero harm to people and environment.
Finally, those who will work in our future industry are not yet born. They may not even learn to write with a pen. Their methods of cognition may be entirely different. Artificial intelligence and machine learning would change how we work. The experts may be robots that will have codified years and years of human knowledge and experience in their AI algorithms. The only limit to achieving these paradigm shifts is our own imagination. — Carri Lockhart
“Innovations will be introduced all along the way.” Matt McCarroll, Fieldwood Energy