Stats scream Cy Young Award
Verlander takes a wait-and-see attitude, but veteran’s season full of impressive numbers
BALTIMORE — Consternation consumed the segment of a fan base searching for meaning in a worthless game.
Astros reliever Joe Smith surrendered a three-run homer in the seventh inning of a 4-3 win over the Orioles. It prevented Justin Verlander from securing the 17th win of a stupendous regular season.
As recently as 10 years ago, this meant more. A starting pitcher chasing a Cy Young award at 17-9 instead of a 16-9 would face longer odds.
Baseball and the way it is analyzed is transforming. Appreciating greatness lies in numbers far more scrupulous — and self-created — than a win or loss.
On Saturday, Verlander exuded the dominance that has spanned his marvelous September. Ten of his first 29 pitches were swung upon and missed. He struck out seven of the first nine Orioles he encountered. He finished with 11 punchouts in six scoreless innings.
His offense provided three runs of support. Smith staggered in a bad inning. The lead Verlander worked to create was gone. Through no fault of his own, the righthander’s record would not reflect the way he performed. Everything else does.
Verlander will sleep Saturday night the American League leader in strikeouts, strikeout-to-walk ratio and opposing on-base percentage.
FanGraphs’ calculations award him 6.4 wins above replacement — the most of any qualified American League pitcher. Rays ace Blake Snell leads in WAR according to Baseball-Reference’s calculations. Snell represents Verlander’s most obvious hurdle. His 1.89 ERA is the lowest of any American League starter. The effectively wild Tampa Bay terror is 21-5 in 180⅔ innings. Verlander’s ERA is 2.52.
How much importance the 30 Cy Young voters place on innings pitched will suggest the fate of Verlander, who finished the season with an American League-high 214 innings pitched.
“I think he’s the Cy Young,” Astros manager A.J. Hinch said. “I believe in the innings, and that they matter, and where he ranks in all the top categories. It’s a tough call. You’re talking about elite performers across the league and I’m going to be biased toward my guy. The innings stretch is significant and something we need to value as an industry.”
Whether it actualizes is among the most compelling off-the-field subplots.
“I think it’s an interesting vote,” Verlander said Saturday, “and I think this is a vote that’s going to change possibly the landscape of how Cy Young voting goes.”
Verlander established a career high with 290 strikeouts. Teammate Gerrit Cole has 276. No other qualified starting pitcher has more than 225. Verlander’s 12.2 strikeouts per nine innings were the most in his 14-year major league career. He walked only 1.6 men per nine innings, too. Snell has 3.19 walks per nine.
To qualify for statistical-based titles, a starting pitcher must record one inning pitched per each game played. Two stints on the disabled list leave Red Sox ace Chris Sale — early this season the front-runner for the award — at 158 innings pitched.
Sale is not a qualified starter. Cy Young consideration can be given to any pitcher, regardless of how many innings they’ve thrown.
“I think the ripple effect of those innings throughout the team and what happens and how it can affect the tean positively, without you just being out there, is important,” Verlander said. “The body of work speaks for itself.”
Neither Sale nor Snell eclipsed 181 innings. Only one Cy Youngwinning starter has thrown fewer than 200 innings. Clayton Kershaw threw 198⅓ innings when he won in 2014.
“I think if you’re going to take a bigger look at guys like Sale and Snell, you have to take a look at relievers,” Verlander said. “If you’re going to minimize innings, just go for the spectacular numbers and fewer innings, then it brings in a whole other genre of guys who should be looked at for Cy Young.”
Saturday was Verlander’s 26th quality start, another American League best. He struck out 10 or more for a fourth consecutive start. Never in his 14-year major league career had he accomplished that.
His WHIP — walks and hits per innings pitched — is 0.90. No other major league pitcher has one lower. Often, the 35-year-old veteran proclaims WHIP as the most clear indicator of a pitcher’s success.
In 2011, Verlander’s WHIP was 0.92. He captured the AL Cy Young Award and Most Valuable Player.
“I’m interested to see how this vote is going to go. I have no idea, honestly,” Verlander said. “But I just, maybe, as opposed to a few years ago, I hope that everybody does their homework and that’s all you can ask for in any vote.”