ARE WE ALONE?

NASA’s Mars plans remain elusive decades after worries about Red Planet aliens

Before the U.S. put the first man on the moon, before the Soviet Union launched the first satellite, people thought aliens lived on Earth’s nearest planetary neighbor.

The belief sparked fear in some — and outright panic when Orson Welles broadcast reports in 1938 of a Martian invasion drawn from the novel, “The War of the Worlds.”

But it inspired others to question: Are we alone in the universe?

“Perhaps the single, most consuming scientific question of the space program is: ‘Does extraterrestrial life exist in our solar system?’ ” rocket pioneer Wernher von Braun wrote in a 1969 proposal to send humans to Mars.

In the decades since, even after scientists concluded the aliens of science-fiction fame do not live on Mars, the Red Planet has captivated the world’s imagination unlike any other.

It’s been the subject of myriad movies, books and TV shows. It’s been an inspiration for folklore. And it’s been a desired destination for dreamers — a barren, dusty terrain that could offer scientists a look at what may lie ahead for Earth.

But a human mission to the Red Planet was out of reach in the 1960s. And it remains elusive today.

“I don’t know. It’s a function of how much (progress) the program can make. The technology

and the hardware is reasonable, but can we get the budget? That I don’t know.” Bill Gerstenmaier, NASA’s associate administrator for human exploration and operations

Top NASA officials have tentatively aimed for a human mission to Mars in 2033, but even they admit that timeline is aggressive. NASA still needs to develop a spacecraft capable of transporting humans to Mars; a method of propulsion to cover the distance more quickly; and a surface-landing vehicle that can handle the Martian climate.

Can NASA get it done in 14 years?

“I don’t know,” replied Bill Gerstenmaier, NASA’s associate administrator for human exploration and operations.

“It’s a function of how much (progress) the program can make,” he told the Houston Chronicle recently. “The technology and the hardware is reasonable, but can we get the budget? That I don’t know.”

Some question going at all. The U.S. already has successfully landed eight robotic missions on the Red Planet.

“It’s kind of questionable about what there is to be gained,” Apollo 7 astronaut Walt Cunningham told the Chronicle. “You have to find some rationalization and justification in order to spend what it costs to go to Mars.

“I think that’s a long shot right now.”

Five-decade goals still unmet

With a miniature astronaut doll clutched tightly between his fingers, President Donald Trump grinned triumphantly after signing a directive in December 2017 to focus NASA’s efforts on lunar exploration.

And just like that, NASA’s mission shifted — with six years of charging toward a crewed trip to the Red Planet under President Barack Obama grinding to a halt.

Instead, the Trump administration views the moon as a steppingstone for Mars, a base of operations that would allow testing of new technologies close to home, and a potential source of fuel and life support for longer, deepspace missions.

The directive “marks an important step in returning American astronauts to the moon,” Trump said during the signing event. “We will establish a foundation for an eventual mission to Mars and perhaps, someday, to many worlds beyond.”

Since 1960, the United States has had 16 successful missions to Mars. The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter found evidence of water in 2011 after circling the Red Planet for six years. The Curiosity Rover began its search for life on the surface in 2012. And the InSight lander earlier this year found evidence of a Martian version of earthquakes.

But experts say the nation can learn much more about Mars by sending humans.

“People can look all around them in minutes or seconds and can flip over a rock in front of them and break off a chunk and see what’s inside,” said Kirsten Siebach, a Martian geologist and assistant professor in Rice University’s Department of Earth, Environmental and Planetary Science. “The scale of operations with rovers is remarkable, but people, by standing in one place, do more investigating than a rover ever could.”

A human mission to the Red Planet has been on NASA’s to-do list since Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin stepped foot on the moon in 1969.

The Apollo 11 trio, which also included Michael Collins, triumphantly splashed down in the Pacific Ocean on July 24, 1969, and von Braun — a German scientist recruited to the U.S. space program — presented a Mars plan to President Richard Nixon’s Space Task Group on Aug. 4.

“With the recent accomplishment of the manned lunar landing, the next frontier is manned exploration of the planets,” von Braun wrote in his “Manned Mars Landing” presentation.

This wasn’t von Braun’s first foray into developing plans for Mars travel. In the 1950s, he proposed a NASA trip to the Red Planet that involved 10 spaceships and 70 crew members.

But the 51-page plan presented in 1969 laid out a scaled-back version of his dreams for the ninemonth trek to Mars: how the U.S. would get there, how long it would take and how a vehicle would land on the surface. It also explained what life would look like for astronauts during their 30- to 60-day stay on the surface.

On the surface, astronauts would examine the planet’s composition, make note of any major events preserved in the rock and drill for water.

But the primary objective was searching for life.

“Man’s first step on Mars will be no less exciting than Neil Armstrong’s first step on the moon,” he wrote.

The plan never came to fruition. Nixon instead moved forward with the space shuttle program, which would eventually fly more than 100 missions from 1981 to 2011. That decision was made, in large part, because of money.

“By no means should we allow our space program to stagnate,” Nixon said at the time. “But — with the entire future and the entire universe before us — we should not try to do everything at once. Our approach to space must continue to be bold — but it must also be balanced.”

Mars pitfalls

Though thorough, von Braun’s plans for a human trip to Mars failed to consider how the body might be impacted by prolonged weightlessness, for example, or radiation.

These are challenges NASA still is working on today, with a significant amount of research in this field being conducted on the International Space Station. Using crew members who live on the space station for the usual sixmonth stints and those who stay for almost a full year, such as astronaut Scott Kelly, NASA is examining the effects of zero gravity on bone density, eyesight and DNA composition.

They’re also examining the impact of radiation exposure. During the nine-month trek to Mars, astronauts would be exposed to enough radiation to increase their

And just like that, NASA’s mission shifted — with six years of charging toward a crewed trip to the Red Planet under President Barack Obama grinding to a halt.

cancer risk 10 to 15 percent, said Pascal Lee, co-founder and chairman of the Mars Institute, a nonprofit headquartered at NASA’s Ames Research Center in California.

But NASA is working on shielding for the spacecraft to address that.

“Radiation … is one of those risks that should not be viewed as a showstopper to going to Mars,” Lee said. “On a journey to Mars, you’re exposing yourself to many more risks that have a higher probability of killing you, like the launch.”

The biggest stumbling block, according to Gerstenmaier and Lee, is the technology and hardware needed to get there.

Landing on Mars is much different than landing on the moon because the Martian surface has unpredictable dust storms, wind and atmospheric density.

Historically, space agencies across the world have struggled to land small, uncrewed probes on the surface: Fewer than 50 percent of the 45 probes sent to Mars since 1960 have been successful, according to a 2018 Forbes article.

So just imagine how hard it will be to land a spacecraft carrying humans.

Also needed for a trip is a new propulsion system. Currently, space agencies use chemical propulsion to blast humans out of Earth’s atmosphere. But nuclear thermal propulsion could cut down the nine-month journey to Mars significantly, making the trip better for both human and machine.

NASA is in only the preliminary phases of examining this issue: The current budget funds feasibility studies and engine-environment performance but little else.

“It’s not at a very high level, but we’ve definitely started doing work,” Gerstenmaier said.

$1 trillion needed

It’s still not clear how much money would be needed to put humans on the Red Planet by 2033. And the apparent lack of planning for such a mission has drawn criticism from congressional leaders.

“If the moon is a useful and necessary waypoint on the way to Mars, then I believe Congress will support a sustainable exploration program that includes the moon,” U.S. Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson, D-Dallas, said during an April meeting of the House Committee on Science, Space and Technology, which she chairs. “But NASA has to date provided no meaningful road map to Mars despite congressional direction to do so.”

Lee, with the Mars Institute, estimates it would cost $1 trillion to build a habitable base on Mars by the 2040s, which could be split among NASA and its international and commercial partners. But increasing NASA’s budget to accommodate that plan likely will be tricky.

During the Apollo days, NASA at its peak received 5 percent of the federal budget, but the space agency today receives less than a half percent. A significant increase is unlikely given the political climate.

But Gerstenmaier remains hopeful that plans to return to the moon will pan out, providing concrete steps toward the Red Planet. Technology being developed for lunar landers and the mini-space station NASA plans to build orbiting the moon could have applications on Mars.

“Big picture, you see a lot of things we’re doing toward the moon that have application on Mars, and we have a chance to practice and demonstrate before committing them to much more demanding tasks,” he said.

Lee thinks it will take another space race to get enough money for such an ambitious mission. Right now, no one has the capacity to get to Mars, so there is no political push — or the money to back it up — for a full-blown sprint to the Martian surface.

But in the end, Lee says, it would be worth the cost. A human trip to the Martian surface would do more than help the country learn about its closest planet — it would inspire future generations of science enthusiasts.

“The Apollo program was such an exciting thing that (people) embraced science and technology boldly,” Lee said. “Going to Mars … will create a tide of enthusiasm like going to the moon did in the ’60s.”

Radiation … is one of those risks that should not be viewed as a showstopper to going to Mars. On a journey to Mars, you’re

exposing yourself to many more risks that have a higher probability of killing you, like the launch.” Pascal Lee, co-founder and chairman of the Mars Institute, a nonprofit headquartered at NASA’s Ames Research Center in California

NASA NASA tentatively aims for a human mission to Mars in 2033, but officials say that timeline is aggressive.

NASA A self-portrait taken by NASA’s Opportunity rover in March 2014 shows that wind had blown off much of the Martian dust that had covered its solar panels.

Al Seib / Los Angeles Times NASA engineers at the Space Flight Operations Facility in Pasadena, Calif., rejoice as the first image is beamed back after the InSight spacecraft landed successfull on Mars last November.

NASA The Opportunity rover was designed for only 90 days of exploration but remained functional for more than 14 years.

NASA NASA scientists have found that the Canadian Arctic’s Haughton Crater, formed by an asteroid strike 24 million years ago, has many geological features similar to Mars.

Associated Press The Mars Opportunity rover’s rear cameras have allowed NASA to study Martian soil.

Steve Gonzales / Staff file photo NASA’s Johnson Space Center is the home to a Mars meteorite — one of about 220 on Earth.