Where to go from here?
Starting with Cole’s free agency, this winter could make or break dreams of a dynasty
Eight outs separated the 2019 Astros from fulfilling the vision of general manager Jeff Luhnow, who tore down and rebuilt this franchise with more than one championship in mind.
The plan has produced three consecutive 100-win seasons and two of the past three American League pennants. But prosperity has altered expectations for the Astros, a franchise that once would have been thrilled with those accomplishments.
“When you reach 107 wins during the regular season and go to 117 cumulative, you can’t look back and be dissatisfied with that result,” Luhnow said Friday. “We’ll take that result, but obviously it fell short of what we ultimately wanted and what we said we wanted from the very beginning, which is multiple championships. We’re not quite there.”
Forty-eight hours after faltering in Game 7, the angst had not faded. Manager A.J. Hinch defended his decision-making during a Gerrit Cole-less bullpen combustion in Wednesday’s 6-2 loss. Luhnow backed his skipper.
The two men were forced to reconcile a jarring reality that this remarkable, record-setting season will be remembered by many for the miserable way it ended. The 2019 Astros reached heights few other teams in Houston sports history can claim. It still was not enough.
“This is going to sting for a really long time,” Hinch said. “If we think winning 100-plus games three years in a row, if we think that MVP-caliber performances or a historic number of strikeouts or winning streaks or hanging pennants is not OK or not enough, man, sports is hard.
“I will feel better about this season as I get further away from missing out by eight outs, but I will never be upset with players and the staff, the preparation and the (front) office that provided this team.”
If there can be any immediate comfort, it’s in what returns. Before the Astros had a chance to disperse Wednesday night, sportsbooks pegged them as the favorites to win the 2020 World Series. Nothing in the sport ever can be guaranteed, but a fourth straight season of 100 wins seems more than feasible.
Houston will return eight of its nine everyday position players and 253 of its franchise-record 288 home runs. Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke will front the starting rotation. Lance McCullers Jr. will slot behind them after undergoing Tommy John surgery last November. All-Star setup man Ryan Pressly and closer Roberto Osuna form a menacing back end to the bullpen.
How Luhnow complements this already absurd core will dictate whether the club can continue to contend. The middle of Houston’s bullpen will be ravaged by free agency. There is no catcher prepared to play every day on the 40-man roster. Replacing Cole’s production in the rotation is an impossible task — unless Luhnow re-signs the man himself.
Cole’s free agency will be the most captivating of the winter. He is almost guaranteed to garner the largest contract by a pitcher in major league history, one that should dwarf David Price’s seven-year, $217 million deal from 2016.
Cole struck out a major-league high 326 batters, won 20 games, and posted a 2.50 ERA in his age-29 season. He is represented by Scott Boras, who negotiated Bryce Harper’s 13-year, $330 million deal last winter.
“We clearly want the best possible team we can put together, and we’re going to be looking at all free agents, including our own, trying to put together a team next year that can take us as deep, if not deeper, than we went this year,” Luhnow said.
Cole says he enjoyed Houston and would be open to returning, but he also does not hide his affinity for his home state of California. The Los Angeles Angels, Cole’s hometown team, are in desperate need of a front-line starter.
Luhnow’s policy is not to address specific free agents. On Friday, he thanked Cole for his contributions in Houston but did not divulge how seriously he’ll pursue him this winter.
Whether the Astros even have the financial flexibility to do so is uncertain.
High-dollar extensions for Verlander and Jose Altuve kick in next season. The final two years of Greinke’s massive contract — worth $206.5 million when it was signed in 2016 — go on the books, too. Houston will pay $53,666,667 to that trio alone in 2020.
According to Spotrac, the Astros have $145,483,333 already committed to their 2020 payroll. That number does not take into account Houston’s 10 arbitrationeligible players.
MLBTradeRumors’ arbitration projection tool predicts the Astros will pay $62.2 million to those 10 players should they all be offered arbitration. Add that to what’s already committed, and it amounts to $207,683,333.
Before the World Series, owner Jim Crane said he would “prefer not to” exceed the sport’s competitive balance tax. In 2020, that will be triggered at a total payroll of $208 million.
The Astros never have exceeded the threshold. Clubs that exceed it for the first time must pay a 20 percent tax on all overages.
Ways to pare the payroll are apparent. The Astros are unlikely to tender injured pitcher Aaron Sanchez a contract, removing him from the 10 arbitration-eligible players.
Kyle Tucker’s September surge could put him in line for everyday playing time and create an outfield surplus. Josh Reddick, entering the final year of a four-year, $52 million deal, may be shopped to alleviate it. The Athletic reported last winter that Houston was “open” to trading Reddick.
“Every team has limits, and there’s not unlimited spending potential for at least most teams. We’re one that has limits,” Luhnow said. “But we have to spend wisely. That’s part of a front office’s job. We’ve done that in the past. We’ve been reaching alltime payroll highs every year for the last four or five years, and that will probably continue next year.
“How we allocate those resources is something we spend a lot of time thinking about, and how we commit resources for the future as well.”
The reliability and pedigree of Verlander and Greinke will provide solace if Cole signs elsewhere. A healed McCullers and Jose Urquidy, coming off a breakout season, could fill two more spots in the rotation.
For a fifth starter, the Astros could find another free agent on a cheap, short-term deal or even re-sign Wade Miley. Top prospect Forrest Whitley looms at Class AAA, too, after another inconsistent minor league season.
Cole is one of eight Astros free agents. Pitchers Miley, Will Harris, Hector Rondon, Joe Smith and Collin McHugh joined catchers Martin Maldonado and Robinson Chirinos in officially becoming free agents Thursday.
By either coincidence or extenuating circumstances, free agents rarely have been resigned during Luhnow’s Astros tenure. The general manager has re-signed only one — reliever Tony Sipp in 2016. Colby Rasmus accepted the team’s qualifying offer that same offseason, too.
Perhaps that trend will change given the Astros’ needs for 2020.
Middle relievers Harris and Smith, two of four Houston bullpen arms set for free agency, were excellent this season. Harris has expressed interest in returning to the Astros. Hinch said Friday that Harris is among his favorite players he ever managed. The cutter-curveball maestro had the second-lowest ERA among qualified major league relievers in 2019.
Foremost among Luhnow’s offseason priorities is finding a catcher. Both Chirinos and Maldonado are free agents, leaving the little-utilized Garrett Stubbs as the only man with major league catching experience on the 40-man roster.
That the Astros have acquired Maldonado at each of the past two trade deadlines illustrates how valuable they believe he can be. Houston was interested in a reunion last winter, too, when Maldonado switched representation and eventually signed a late, one-year deal with the Kansas City Royals.
A case for re-signing Chirinos is just as compelling. He became Verlander’s first-ever personal catcher and formed quite the rapport with the entire Astros’ pitching staff. His offensive production — a .790 OPS and 40 extra-base hits in a career-high 437 plate appearances — was something sorely missing from the position the year before.
Chirinos is among the sport’s nicest men. He held court after Wednesday’s season-ending loss with a smile on his face and his 12-year-old son David, hugging teammates goodbye. Eventually the question arose of his future. Would he want to return to Houston?
“How can you say no,” Chirinos said with a grin.