Right there in the mix
McClain: Team should be among top five AFC contenders.
Who will rule the AFC next season? Texans figure to rank just behind Chiefs, Ravens, Patriots in Super Bowl potential
One week after Kansas City’s victory over San Francisco in Super Bowl LIV is a good time to examine where the Texans might stand in the AFC hierarchy next season.
What teams do in free agency and the draft will influence how some teams play next season, but in this early part of the offseason, it’s clear that two teams stand at the head of a class that includes the Texans.
The Chiefs, who waited 50 years between Super Bowls, won the Lombardi Trophy for the second time. With coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes, they’ve already been established as the favorite to win Super Bowl LV.
Before trying to find room on the Kansas City bandwagon as it loads for Tampa, Fla., and Raymond James Stadium, keep in mind the last team to repeat was New England in Super Bowl XXXIX. The Patriots won their second and third Super Bowls after the 2003 and 2004 seasons, showing it’s extremely difficult to win back-to-back championships.
Still, the Chiefs are already favored to repeat, but if not the Chiefs, it should be Baltimore, right? In the regular season, the Ravens were the NFL’s best team, compiling a 14-2 record led by quarterback Lamar Jackson, voted the NFL Most Valuable Player.
Despite winning home-field advantage, the Ravens lost at home in the divisional round, getting stomped by Tennessee, which was the biggest surprise of the playoffs with road victories over New England and Baltimore.
Considering how they dominated in regular season and the way they were embarrassed by the Titans, you would think the Ravens would be the hungriest team in the league going into next season, ravenous actually.
Kansas City and Baltimore should be decisive favorites to represent the AFC in the next Super Bowl. Let’s look at where their competition comes from — teams that made the playoffs and teams that could make the playoffs.
Let’s start with New England. If Tom Brady re-signs with the Patriots, they’ll be a Super Bowl contender because they’re always Super Bowl contenders. Brady and Bill Belichick don’t like to lose, and they’ll be determined to not have another flameout at Gillette Stadium — if they’re good enough to host another playoff game.
New England’s problem last season wasn’t Brady. It was the talent around him. Belichick didn’t replace tight end Rob Gronkowski. The offensive line had injury issues. Receivers ran wrong routes and dropped passes. No wonder Brady wants to look around.
If Brady leaves the Patriots, they could be treading playoff water like so many other teams. If Brady signs with a team like Las Vegas — sounds strange, doesn’t it? — Indianapolis or the Los Angeles Chargers, would that make them instant Super Bowl contenders or just enhance their playoff possibilities?
Now, it says here the Texans are no worse than fourth behind
Kansas City, Baltimore and New England — if Brady returns.
At this time last year, Indianapolis was favored to dethrone the Texans as AFC South champions after the Colts beat them in the divisional round at NRG Stadium. Then quarterback Andrew Luck retired, and the Colts finished 7-9.
The Texans finished 10-6, won the AFC South for the fourth time in five years and beat Buffalo in a wild-card game before losing at Kansas City.
As we witnessed last season,
Trader Bill O’Brien, officially the general manager now as well as the head coach heading into his seventh season, isn’t going to sit on his hands in free agency and the draft. Trader Bill the GM will make moves for Bill the coach. Based on most of his moves as the GM without the title,
O’Brien did an impressive job in charge of personnel for the first time.
As long as quarterback Deshaun Watson is healthy, the Texans should be a playoff contender. As long as he’s got the ball, they should always have a chance to win.
Like last year, the Texans will be pegged as the second-best team in their division by many who cover the league. Expect a lot of NFL observers to pick Tennessee to win the AFC
South.
In Mike Vrabel’s second season, the Titans needed a victory in the last game against the Texans to finish 9-7 and earn the last wild-card spot. Then they went on to shock the Patriots and Ravens before losing at Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game.
Buffalo had a 10-6 record, earned a wild-card berth and lost to the Texans. If Brady leaves New England, could the Bills do the unthinkable and win the AFC East?
Of the teams missing the playoffs last season, Pittsburgh (8-8), Las Vegas (7-9) and Denver (7-9) could be playoff contenders. The most likely to compete for a division title is the Steelers.
With quarterback Ben Roethlisberger returning, the Steelers should compete with the Ravens for the AFC North title. That’s the way it usually is other than last season when Roethlisberger was injured.
Unlike last season when many of us were buying into the Cleveland hype, the Browns won’t get much love to make the playoffs even though they replaced the fired Freddie Kitchens with Minnesota offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski, a first-time head coach.
No matter what happens in March and April during free agency and the draft, nothing is going to change Kansas City and Baltimore being the best teams in the AFC, even if Brady resigns with New England.
As for the Texans, they’ll focus on winning the division again and seeing if they can advance beyond the divisional round for the first time in team history.