Predicting the Oscars
Sure things or wild cards? Who might win at the 92nd Academy Awards
After a strong year in film, the 92nd Academy Awards are tonight — with one film set to break barriers.
Whatever else is going on with this year’s Academy Awards, organizers can proudly say, “Well, at least we’re not the Grammys.”
The Recording Academy, the organization that runs the music industry’s big awards show, is mired in charges and counter-charges of employee and sexual misconduct, self-dealing and voting irregularities in the wake of the ouster of its first female CEO, Deborah Dugan.
But the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, the people behind the Oscars, has its own controversies this year, much of it having to do with the glaring lack of recognition for female filmmakers in a year when there were several powerful films made by women. There are no women in the director’s category, even though Lulu Wang’s “The Farewell,” Chinonye Chukwu’s “Clemency” and Greta Gerwig’s “Little Women” — the latter in the running for best picture — could easily qualify.
The films’ storylines are guycentric as well, with women often invisible or on the margins. And there was a specific type of male character that caught the camera’s gaze, a man unmoored from contemporary cultural constraints. With the exception of “Marriage Story,” each of the male-centered English-language contenders is set in the past and loosely based on events real (“Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood,” “JoJo Rabbit,” “1917,” “Ford v Ferrari,” “The Irishman”) or comic-book unreal (“Joker”). Obviously, “Little Women,” too, is set in a world that no longer exists.
Yet, for all the handwringing over resurrecting the past instead of facing the future, #OscarSoMale and few people of color being nominated in major categories, this was a strong year for movies — with one film, in particular, poised to break all sorts of barriers.
South Korean director Bong Joon-ho’s crafty and slyly subversive “Parasite” could become the first fully foreign-language film to win the best-picture honor. (The 2011 French film “The Artist” won, but it was silent.) The South Korean film industry has been on a roll the past few years with such jolts of moviemaking electricity as “Train to Busan” and “Burning” finding appreciative audiences around the world. An Oscar isn’t needed for artistic validation of a country’s filmic output, but recognition is overdue.
With all of this in mind, here are the nominees in the major categories and who we think will and should win.
Picture
The nominees: “1917,” “Ford v Ferrari,” “The Irishman,” “JoJo Rabbit,” “Joker,” “Little Women,” “Marriage Story,” “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood,” “Parasite”
Judging by awards season so far, “1917” is the one to beat. The World War I thriller about two soldiers on a do-or-die mission picked up the equivalent of bestpicture statues from the Golden Globes, the Directors Guild, the
Producers Guild and the BAFTAs (the British version of the Oscar). Plus, it has all the trappings
Oscar voters love: spectacle (enhanced by director Sam Mendes’ tracking-shot intimacy), history and British accents. To be fair, it has more going for it than simply fitting into a mold. As a pure cinematic experience, it’s one of the most thrilling of the year. “Parasite” could sneak in a win as those who love it really love it and, unlike last year’s Spanish-language “Roma,” which also was up for best picture, it’s not encumbered by being associated with Netflix (many in traditional Hollywood don’t want to recognize streaming movies). Under the academy’s preferential voting system, “Parasite” may be the second choice of enough voters to put it over the top. Conversely, voters could figure they’ll just give “Parasite” the international-film award (formerly the foreign-language-film Oscar) and call it a day. And there could be other dark horses, such as “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood,” which snagged the Critics Choice Award for best picture.
Will win: “1917”
Should win: “Parasite” Spoiler alert: “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”
Director
The nominees: Bong Joon-ho (“Parasite”), Sam Mendes (“1917”), Todd Phillips (“Joker”), Martin Scorsese “The Irishman”), Quentin Tarantino (“Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”)
Sam Mendes’ beautifully rendered “1917” (kudos to cinematographer Roger Deakins) is a master class in movement and action. Making the whole thing look as if it’s a single shot only underscores the technical achievement. Besides, Mendes won the DGA award, generally a bellwether for who goes home with the Oscar. But the pleasures of Joon-ho’s unnerving “Parasite,” Tarantino’s playful “Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood” and Scorsese’s epic “The Irishman” run deeper in terms of story and character.
Will win: Sam Mendes Should win: Bong Joon-ho Spoiler alert: Quentin Tarantino
Actress
The nominees: Cynthia Erivo (“Harriet”), Scarlett Johansson (“Marriage Story”), Saiorse Ronan (“Little Women”), Charlize Theron (“Bombshell”); Renée Zellweger (“Judy”)
Renée has got this one on lock. Though “Judy” as a film has been roundly ignored by the cognoscenti, Zellweger’s performance as emotionally troubled singer Judy Garland has been honored by the Golden Globes, the Screen Actors Guild Awards and the BAFTA Awards. Oscar voters love physical transformation and tortured artistic souls (and who doesn’t love Garland?), so it should be a good night for Katy’s favorite daughter. Johannson’s performance might not have been as showy, but it packs an emotional punch while Theron’s makeover into Fox News’ Megyn Kelly is uncanny.
Will win: Renée Zellweger Should win: Scarlett Johansson
Spoiler alert: Saiorse Ronan
Actor
The nominees: Antonio Banderas (“Pain and Glory”); Leondardo DiCaprio (“Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood”); Adam Driver (“Marriage Story”); Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker”); Jonathan Pryce (“The Two Popes”)
Phoenix’s creepy performance in this origin story of the Gotham City villain is the best thing about Todd Phillips’ film, and it has already earned him the Golden Globe, BAFTA and SAG awards. But Banderas’ turn as an aging film director in Pedro Almodóvar’s return to cinematic glory is absolutely transcendent. Too bad it’s probably going to be totally ignored on Oscar night. It has been a big year for Driver — he had four movies in 2019 — who turned in one of his best performances in “Marriage Story,” but they might as well just give Phoenix the award right now.
Will win: Joaquin Phoenix Should win: Antonio Banderas
Spoiler alert: Adam Driver
Supporting actress
The nominees: Kathy Bates (“Richard Jewell”); Laura Dern (“Marriage Story”); Scarlett Johansson (“Jojo Rabbit”); Florence Pugh (“Little Women”); Margot Robbie (“Bombshell”)
As with Phoenix, Dern might as well make space on her mantle right now for her turn as the no-nonsense divorce attorney in “Marriage Story.” Her win at the Globes, BAFTA and SAG awards pretty much assures her of an Oscar. And she deserves it as she dives into the role with delicious gusto. Pugh is wonderfully assured in “Little Women,” but she has many good roles ahead of her. Bates is strong in “Richard Jewell,” but the film was a commercial flop marred by controversy over the portrayal of a female reporter.
Will win: Laura Dern
Should win: Laura Dern Spoiler alert: Florence Pugh
Supporting actor
The nominees: Tom Hanks (“A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”); Anthony Hopkins (“The Two Popes”); Al Pacino (“The Irishman”); Joe Pesci (“The Irishman”); Brad Pitt “Once
Upon a Time … in Hollywood”)
This is a powerhouse category with some of the most respected actors all in one batch. All but
Pitt have already won Oscars. But Pitt seem to be walking away with this one for his role as a down-on-his-luck stuntman as he, too, has received the Golden Globe, BAFTA and SAG awards. One plus if Pitt wins: He gives memorable acceptance speeches.
Will win: Brad Pitt
Should win: Brad Pitt
Spoiler alert: Al Pacino