FIVE THINGS TO WATCH AT SPRING TRAINING.
Though the tenor of discussions surrounding them might suggest otherwise, the Astros will play baseball in 2020. During the first weeks of spring training, few questions will center on the sport itself, a consequence of cheating coupled with a lack of culpability from the players who participated in it. Owner Jim Crane has promised a “strong statement” from his club once it gathers in West Palm Beach, Fla., as a full squad on Feb. 17. Whether that comes via a group address or a more individualized exercise is still unknown. And whether the questions about electronic signstealing abate after it’s delivered might hinge on the message Houston’s players convey. The team must be prepared for one absolute: Sign-stealing speculation and queries won’t totally stop. The first day in any opposing ballpark will be filled with inquiries from other media and insults from fans. New manager Dusty Baker is the sort of skipper who can divert the deluge. What would help? “I want to win,” Baker said. “I want to start out hot and get out of the gate hot.” To accomplish that, here are five non sign-stealing questions the Astros must answer before opening day on March 26.
WHO WILL BE THE FIFTH STARTER?
For the second straight season, the Astros will journey to Florida without a defined fifth starter. If not for the sign-stealing scandal, the competition to determine it would headline Houston’s time in spring training.
Some of the same candidates from last season remain in contention. Josh James and Framber Valdez will join veteran Brad Peacock — the winner of last season’s battle — as the most tested options. Offseason acquisition Austin Pruitt will factor in, as could prospects Bryan Abreu, Cristian Javier and Forrest Whitley.
James’ performance might drive the discussion. The hard-throwing righthander came through the minor leagues and made his major league debut as a starter. If not for a calf injury last spring, he would have been in contention to open the season in the Astros’ rotation. Instead, he endured an inconsistent season in the bullpen, alternating brilliant and brutal performances. Command will be crucial to James’ chances. He walked 35 in 611⁄3 innings last season. The team shipped him to West Palm Beach in
July to shorten his delivery in hopes of creating a linear path to home plate. An entire offseason getting more familiar with the delivery could only aid James.
Peacock is a proven commodity who excelled in a starting role last year before dealing with nerve irritation in his neck. Though it seems Valdez might have run out of chances at the major league level, he is lefthanded and possesses one of the organization’s best curveballs.
Pruitt’s high spin-rate curveball, experience as a bulk pitcher with the Rays, and familiarity with new general manager James Click add up to another intriguing wrinkle. Six of Pruitt’s 14 major league outings last season lasted four or more innings.
CAN KYLE TUCKER CHALLENGE JOSH REDDICK TO BE THE EVERYDAY RIGHT FIELDER?
The addition of a 26th man could free an opening-day roster spot for Tucker, the former uber prospect who finally exceeded his rookie limits last September. The month was monumental for Tucker, who seemed to finally rid himself of the effort-related questions that dogged him for most of his early professional career. That Tucker made all three playoff rosters signals the organization’s faith in him. Former general manager Jeff Luhnow said during the offseason that Tucker is prepared to play every day in the major leagues, hinting at a competition in spring training with veteran Josh Reddick.
Reddick has been a below-average offensive player for two seasons since a standout 2017 season. Last year, just two qualified American League outfielders posted a lower OPS than Reddick’s .728 clip. Heading into the the final year of his $52 million deal, Reddick stands to lose playing time if Tucker has a standout spring.
The onus will still be on Tucker. He was unimpressive during spring training last season and sent to minor league camp earlier than many anticipated. Reddick is superior defensively — he was a 2019 Gold Glove finalist in right field — and a respected member of a clubhouse that will be tested throughout the season.
WHO IN THE BULLPEN GETS LEFTIES OUT?
Will Harris’ departure to the Washington Nationals leaves a bridge that needs revamping.
Harris was former manager A.J. Hinch’s fireman, the reliever to whom he turned when a game was most in peril. Frequently, that was in the sixth or seventh inning, before All-Star setup man Ryan Pressly and closer Roberto Osuna entered to finish the deal.
A third reliable, leverage reliever now must separate himself. In 2018 and during the first half of last season, Pressly was used in a Harris-type role in lieu of the traditional eighth-inning spot he assumed when Harris became unhittable.
A knee injury in July interrupted what was another admirable season from Pressly. He and Osuna form a promising back end of any bullpen, but counting on just those two for success across a six-month season could leave the team vulnerable.
Veteran sidearmer Joe Smith seems the most likely to start the season with more responsibility. In a small sample size, the 35-year-old was excellent last year, and he signed a twoyear deal during the offseason to afford the Astros comfort in case Harris left.
Smith should inherit many of the leverage spots Harris had. But in Harris’ absence, the Astros are without a reliever they can rely upon to neutralize lefthanded hitters early in games. Few remember that Harris faced more lefthanded hitters (125) than righties (104) last year. Lefthanded hitters had a .490 OPS against him.
Smith’s sidearm delivery has historically been more effective against righthanded hitters. When he pitches out of the bullpen, Peacock falls into a similar category. Both are capable of facing lefthanded hitters and will be asked to do so again in 2020. Improvement from Chris Devenski, who historically has held lefties in check, would be welcome. A wild card in this discussion is Bryan Abreu, the uber-talented rookie who starred last September and snuck onto the American League Championship Series roster against the Yankees.
Abreu’s two breaking balls are elite, featuring the sort of swing-and-miss stuff that neither Peacock nor Smith possesses, and are the types of pitches that play in big situations. Under Luhnow, the plan was to stretch Abreu out as a starter in spring — his role throughout the minor league season last year. If it becomes clear Abreu will not win the fifth starter’s job, he could make a case for a bullpen spot.
HOW MANY INNINGS CAN LANCE MCCULLERS JR. CONTRIBUTE?
At the winter meetings, Luhnow estimated McCullers could contribute 120 innings in his first season after Tommy John surgery. McCullers immediately challenged the notion on social media. If it were up to him, he’d attempt a 200-inning season.
A realistic number probably lies somewhere in the middle. The Astros have demonstrated that their “innings limits” are not at all set in stone. Rookie Jose Urquidy exceeded his by more than 40 frames last season — his first full year after Tommy John surgery. Houston was comfortable pushing Urquidy for two reasons: He felt healthy and was pitching well. If McCullers can answer yes to each question as he approaches whatever benchmark the team’s new regime implements, conventional wisdom suggests the Astros will allow him to throw more.
Still, the team will monitor McCullers throughout the season, perhaps skipping an occasional start or implementing a pitch count for others. Though he has never thrown more than 129 major league innings in a season, McCullers did throw 1572⁄3 between Class AA Corpus Christi and the big leagues in 2015. Protecting his long-term health is of Houston’s utmost concern.
The club will sorely need some stabilization behind Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke. Getting it from McCullers — for however many innings — will be a boon.
“We need McCullers back badly and (to) have him a full year,” Baker said last week.
WILL YORDAN ALVAREZ AVOID THE ‘SOPHOMORE SLUMP?’
For the first three months of his major league career, Alvarez annihilated almost anything he saw. In his first 64 games, Alvarez struck 21 home runs and slugged .672.
His start was stunning, almost ensuring he would win American League Rookie of the Year honors before September even arrived. When it did, Alvarez displayed his first signs of failure. He struck out 27 times in 23 games. On more than one occasion, he broke a bat over his leg in frustration. The playoffs offered little solace.
In 65 postseason plate appearances, Alvarez withered. He mustered just a .668 OPS and four extra-base hits while striking out 21 times. If a plan existed to thwart Alvarez, opponents had found it.
Now the onus falls on Alvarez to readjust. In the offseason, he said he wanted to improve his conditioning and agility in hopes of shedding the “DH only” label many have for him. The Astros might not need Alvarez much in the outfield, but they absolutely need his power in the middle of the order.