Draft not all about defense
Texans have holes to fill on that side of ball, but receiver could be target of second pick
It’s no secret the Texans need to fortify their defense in free agency and the draft, but don’t expect
Bill O’Brien to neglect the offense when making personnel decisions.
Quarterback Deshaun Watson is the Texans’ most valuable asset. They have to maximize his strengths by putting talent around him. O’Brien has to make sure Watson has the best possible weapons.
Last year, the Texans finally fixed the offensive line by trading for left tackle Laremy Tunsil and drafting right tackle Tytus Howard and left guard Max Scharping in the first and second round.
Because they have Watson going into his fourth season, the Texans don’t have to be part of the quarterback carousel that involves so many teams still looking to fill needs at the most important position in the NFL.
While O’Brien and his personnel people continue their player evaluations on both sides of the ball, a big problem they have on offense could be solved if one thing happened: receiver Will Fuller staying healthy for 16 games. That’s never happened, of course, so O’Brien can’t count on it as the Texans prepare to improve a 10-6 record, defend their AFC South title and get beyond the divisional round of the playoffs for the first time.
Fuller’s value to the offense is easy to calculate. In the 11 games Fuller played last season, the Texans were 8-3. They averaged 25.5 points, 367.9 yards, 118 yards rushing and 249.9 passing. If they had maintained those averages for the season, they would have been eighth in scoring, 10th in yards, 12th in rushing and eighth in passing.
In the five games Fuller didn’t play, the Texans were 2-3. They averaged 19.6 points, 349 yards, 142.2 rushing and 206.8 passing. If they had played without Fuller for the entire season, they would have finished 24th in scoring, 17th in yards, third in rushing and 25th in passing.
Without Fuller, O’Brien relied heavily on the running game compared to when the receiver was on the field. Imagine where the Texans would have ranked without receiver Kenny Stills, who was part of the Tunsil trade with Miami.
Because of that trade with the Dolphins, the Texans don’t have a first-round pick this year. They won’t have first- or second-round picks next year, either. When O’Brien makes the first pick this year, 57th overall, most of us expect it to be a defensive prospect — cornerback or pass rusher.
But something O’Brien must consider in the second round is another receiver. Fuller and Stills are in the last year of their contracts. In the April draft, there is a talented group of receivers, including some good prospects who’ll be available after the first round.
Last year, only two receivers were taken in the first round, but teams struck it rich in the second and third rounds with productive receivers like San Francisco’s Deebo Samuel, Tennessee’s A.J. Brown, Kansas City’s Mecole Hardman, Seattle’s DK Metcalf and Washington’s Terry McLaurin.
And this year’s draft is even more talented and deeper, so it won’t be surprising if
O’Brien uses one of his toptwo picks on a receiver even though they have bigger needs for the 2020 season. Obviously, that depends on what O’Brien does in free agency, where he’s expected to be aggressive.
When you consider Fuller and Stills are in the last year of their contract and Keke Coutee spent his second season in O’Brien’s doghouse, receiver could be an issue in 2021. We’ll have to see if O’Brien addresses it this year or waits to see how things play out.
Still, knowing what kind of problem receiver could become, Texans fans should keep up with prospects at that position during the combine. Also, it’s not out of the question O’Brien will sign a receiver in free agency.
If there’s one thing we learned about O’Brien since he was put in charge of the personnel department by Cal McNair after general manager Brian Gaine was fired in June and formally named the GM earlier this month, it’s that he’s going to be active in his pursuit of players.
That’s why I won’t be surprised if Trader Bill pursues free agents and tries to make deals before and during the draft. He may not be able to pull it off, but I believe O’Brien will look for ways to move back into the first round if he spots a prospect he can’t live without.
No matter where the Texans end up when making their first pick — whether a receiver, cornerback, pass rusher or a player at another position — it’s going to be fun watching O’Brien in total charge of the Texans’ draft for the first time.
Get your popcorn ready!