Crunching the numbers
Watson, Tunsil will command big deals after Pro Bowl seasons, but they aren’t the only players angling for new contracts
As the Texans navigate a pivotal and unprecedented offseason in franchise history, they’ve set ambitious contractual and roster-building goals.
The Texans want to negotiate blockbuster contract extensions at or near the top of the marketplace for two of the best offensive players in the league: quarterback Deshaun Watson and offensive tackle Laremy Tunsil.
It will be an extremely expensive undertaking involving the two Pro Bowl selections that could require a total combined financial package of nearly $300 million.
Watson ultimately is expected to command somewhere between $38-40 million annually on a multiyear contract in the range of at least $190 million total.
Tunsil is aiming for $19-20 million annually with the total contract expected to range between $95-100 million.
All that big prospective spending will be balanced by a serious financial reality: managing the salary cap overseen by the NFL Management Council with a current limit of $200 million for 2020 for player salaries.
Following contracts for kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn ($17.65 million), defensive tackle Brandon Dunn ($12 million), tight end Darren Fells ($6.3 million), a $2 million restricted free agent tender for linebacker Dylan Cole and veteran minimum deals for long snapper Jon Weeks, linebacker Tyrell Adams, cornerback Phillip Gaines and wide receiver DeAndre Carter, the Texans have roughly $50 million in available salary-cap space.
They can create more cap room, if needed, by releasing players under contract, including offensive guards Zach Fulton (at a savings of $7 million) and Senio Kelemete ($3.25 million), or by restructuring existing contracts like that of defensive end J.J. Watt, a three-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year. Watt is due nonguaranteed base salaries totaling $33 million over the next two years, including $15.5 million this year and $17.5 million in 2021.
Under coach/general manager Bill O’Brien, the Texans have earmarked a large chunk of their projected budget for Watson and Tunsil. That doesn’t mean the Texans will have to sit out free agency, though.
They’re currently attempting to hammer out a new contract for cornerback Bradley Roby, according to league sources not authorized to speak publicly. Roby is expected to make between $10.5 million and $12 million annually after playing last season under a oneyear, $10 million contract. Keeping running back and special-teams contributor Taiwan Jones also is on the agenda.
The Texans are expected to lose Pro Bowl alternate defensive lineman D.J. Reader in free agency, barring an unforeseen change, with the former Clemson standout seeking $14 million annually, according to league sources.
It’s all a fluid situation.
“There’s a lot of ways to work within that system to be creative,” said O’Brien, who’s assisted by executive vice president of football operations Jack Easterby and other executives. “We feel good about what our plans are. I can’t really get into those plans because they change a lot. I’d love to be able to tell you how it’s all going to play out, but they change.
“There’s different things that take place in the team-building process, but we feel really good about our cap situation and what we’re going to be able to do.”
Although it will be a challenging balancing act for the Texans and football administration coordinator Kevin Kravjovic, the new primary contract negotiator after the team fired senior vice president of football administration Chris Olsen after the season, industry experts say it’s all doable.
“The Texans should be good and in position to do whatever they want to do within reason,” said Joel Corry, a former NFL agent who writes about the business of football for CBS Sports. “You can structure the contracts to do that. If they’re fine with not having a lot of cap space, they can make that work. It’s tricky, but they should be able to do that. They will have to make some difficult decisions.”
If a new collective bargaining agreement proposal is ratified by the players in balloting scheduled to close Saturday night at midnight, the Texans will have even more freedom to operate. The salary cap is expected to rise $3 million to $4 million.
Watson’s contract isn’t expected to happen quickly, as he’ll want to be ranked above Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott, who’s expected to make roughly $35-36 million annually, should his deal get closed. Watson is expected to fall somewhere close to the $40 million annual figure anticipated for Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
Both young stars have completed their third year of their respective rookie contracts and are now eligible under the collective bargaining agreement to command huge deals.
The timing and amount of their huge pending paydays will bear watching, including how much salary-cap space it takes to structure deals with hefty signing bonuses and guaranteed salaries. It will take a lot of creative accounting.
“You can take a blank check and fill it in for Watson,” Corry said. “If I’m him, I’m not doing anything until I see if the Cowboys get something done with Dak and also wait and see if Mahomes gets done. They should wait. The market is going to move.”
Mahomes eventually is expected to become the highest paid player in the league. A Pro Bowl selection who led the Texans to consecutive AFC South division titles behind his strong, accurate arm and ability to audible and improvise, Watson will be aiming for that stratosphere, too, as he enters the fourth year of his $13.868 million rookie contract.
Having a franchise quarterback is a good problem to have, but maintaining good roster to build around him can be problematic.
“It’s very challenging,” O’Brien said. “You have to do as good a job as you can of making sure that you take care of your quarterback. I think that’s important when you have a great young quarterback. But at the same time, you’ve got to have a team around him.
“I think you have to have really good people in your organization that understand and can come up with creative ways to help those issues relative to putting a team together. Everybody knows, and Deshaun Watson will be the first one to tell you, it’s not about one player. It’s about a lot of players. So it’s a process that takes a lot of time.”
Meanwhile, Tunsil could become the highest-paid offensive lineman in the NFL and exceed Philadelphia Eagles offensive tackle Lane Johnson’s $72 million deal that includes $55.845 million guaranteed and averages $18 million per year.
Before trading him to the Texans for a pair of first-round draft picks, the Dolphins exercised Tunsil’s 2020 fifth-year option for $10.35 million, so the Texans have him under contract for next season.
Tunsil recently fired Creative Artists Agency and is pondering his options on new representation.
The preliminary groundwork and range for a new deal for Tunsil already is established, according to sources.
“It was a mistake not getting him done in conjunction with a trade,” Corry said. “The urgency with him is he’s heading into the last year of his deal, and you gave up all those picks. I’m sure it will get done.”
O’Brien indicated that Texans want to be proactive about contract talks with Watson and Tunsil as well as Pro Bowl alternate inside linebacker Zach Cunningham
“Watson, Tunsil, Cunningham, I would say the sooner we can get some of those deals done, the better,” Bill O’Brien said. “We want those guys on the football team for a long time. That’s the way I feel about it. Deshaun Watson, we want him here in Houston for his whole career. I love Deshaun Watson, everything that he’s about.
“I would say Laremy and Zach, all those guys, anytime you can solidify your team earlier in someone’s contract, that can be a good thing for your football team.”
There are scenarios where Cunningham could be the odd man out and have to wait until later in the offseason or next year to get a new contract, depending how things unfold with Watson, Tunsil and other pending roster moves.