Season reboot will be hard
Decisions on fans, how many games, arena availability among long list of issues
The NBA moved slowly at first, mostly by keeping media a safe distance from players and coaches and scheduling meetings to determine what to do next.
That seemed insufficient from the start because it in no way addressed fans sitting next to fans, using the same escalators and handrails. But those few game nights that have become unthinkable since were just a few days ago, before social distancing and self-quarantines became ways of life in the coronavirus new normal.
The league went from plans for limited games to be played with no fans, consideration of playing all games in mostly empty arenas to suspending the season entirely. When it did, nearly all sports of spring and summer were halted as the nation grappled with the realities of the global coronavirus pandemic.
After the NBA had to make rapid decisions following Jazz center Rudy Gobert’s positive test in Oklahoma City on Wednesday, the league finds itself weighing the ramifications of the new reality and what to do next.
NBA commissioner Adam Silver, in a letter to NBA fans, said “This hiatus will last at least 30 days and we intend to resume the season, if and when it becomes safe for all concerned.”
Resuming the season was the goal shared through the Board of Governors conference call meeting, according to multiple individuals familiar with the conversations. There was inescapable uncertainty, however.
The NCAA had canceled, rather than postponed, its remaining winter and all spring championships including the men’s and women’s basketball tournaments.
Time had run out on the NCAA. The NBA can adjust its calendar, but it will not be easy. It likely will not be soon, with National Insitute of Health official Dr. Anthony Fauci saying on Friday that shutdowns and social distancing could last “eight weeks or more.”
That made Silver’s comments the night before in an interview on TNT seem optimistic.
“Even if we’re out for a month or out for six weeks, we could still restart the season,” Silver said. “It might mean that the Finals take place in late-July. It was my feeling that it was way premature (to determine) that we’ve lost the season.”
Silver also acknowledged, however, that was a possibility. When asked on TNT if it were possible that the season, with three quarters of its regular season complete, could be lost, Silver said “of course, it’s possible.”
With a two-month hiatus, followed by four weeks of regular season and potentially a twomonth postseason, the NBA season would extend to mid- to late-August, far later than Silver’s hypothetical on TNT.
The NBA collective bargaining agreement with the players association would allow the coronavirus pandemic to be considered a ‘force majeure event,” giving the league the right to terminate the season with players losing 1/92.6th of their salary for every game that would not be played. It could also terminate the CBA.
The language, however, about whether the current situation would qualify as a force majeure event is not specific and there has been no indication that the NBA is considering that sort of step.
Though the Board of Governors strongly preferred to resume the season in some form, the league is uncertain whether the season could be restarted at the point where it stopped. Determining arena availability cannot be considered until a start date can be forecast, or whether an abbreviated schedule — or even a playoff seeding tournament — could be played before moving on to the postseason.
There was not opposition to having a season extend well into the summer, but any scheduling change would require agreements with the players’ association, particularly for players whose contracts would expire before a revised season’s schedule. The collective bargaining agreement allows for an agreement letter to revise portions of the CBA that would allow a revised schedule.
Silver had mentioned conversations with players association president Chris Paul and executive director Michele Roberts and indicated the union’s willingness to play a radically revised schedule, a far better option than the cessation of the season.
A May 1 start to a season would lead to a mid-August finish. If the league went directly to the playoffs it would finish in late June or early July. But if games had to be played without fans, the league could also consider eliminating much of its travel and shorten the season further and opening the possibility of a made-for-television event, a radical departure from the norm but a way to wait out the time needed before resuming play and still crown a champion.
A traditional, pushed back finish to the season would dramatically alter the rest of NBA schedules, from the draft to free agency, in what has made the NBA virtually a year-round sport. The bulk of player evaluations in games is completed before the NCAA tournament, but predraft events including the Portsmouth Tournament and Chicago combine, as well as individual workouts with teams, are in jeopardy.
The draft and summer league would be postponed with the summer league likely altered dramatically if it can be held at all. Free agency, which has become viewed as a sport onto itself, would be on hold until not only after the revised season, but until after basketball related income, which determines the salary cap, could be determined.
The league could not begin to do that until its season is played. It won’t know if fans will return when the season does until a season is played out. Even then, the salary cap is determined based on a forecast of basketball related income for the next season, based in part on the past season. There are provisions to allow for the sort of anomaly this season has been, but even forecasting the business of basketball next season could be difficult.
On top of all that, a delayed NBA season would impact the Tokyo Olympics, if that is held with its current July 26 to Aug. 8 schedule.
All of that led Silver to describe the current suspension of the season as a chance to evaluate. Considering how rapidly the NBA moved from simply backing media up six feet to shutting down it could be impossible to know now how things will look in 30 days. One thing is clear.
“This remains a complicated and rapidly evolving situation that reminds us that we are all part of a broader society with a responsibility to look out for one another,” Silver said.