2020 could see more hurricanes than normal
ORLANDO, Fla. — While still more than 10 weeks away, hurricane season 2020 is already showing signs of being a year flooded by storms.
El Niño, the large series of climate changes seen in the Pacific Ocean, has a profound effect on deterring and enabling a prolific Atlantic hurricane season.
So far, westerly winds from El Niño have been weak, according to the Climate Prediction Center, and that spells troubling signs for the upcoming hurricane season, said Jayme King, FOX 35 meteorologist here.
“Early indications show El Niño may not be of a sufficient magnitude to keep storms at bay this year,” King said.
The westerly winds produced by El Niño act as a preventive measure from tropical storms forming.
One of the key elements to tropical development is low intensity of upper-level wind shear, or disruptive winds in the atmosphere, King said. When wind levels are low, a moist environment is ripe for pressure buildup that eventually can yield a tropical system.
“If we don’t see the westerlies that El Niño produces, which help rip up storms and keep them away … we could see storms develop,” King said.
“Time will tell. (El Niño) is kind of the savior for hurricane season. We like to see that sheer.”
It’s not all doom and gloom, though. The Atlantic still has another secret weapon that it could depend on more during the incoming season, in the form of the “Saharan Air Layer.”
The SAL is a plume of dry dust whipping off Africa and into the atmosphere, according to the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration. The dust travels thousands of miles over the Atlantic and acts as a protective shield from hurricanes, which require moist air to develop, King said. The SAL chokes off a tropical system’s ability to develop.
The 2019 hurricane season, which closed Nov. 30, was more active than most others, and featured devastating Hurricane Dorian, which matched a record with its 185-mph winds as the strongest-ever recorded for a storm that made landfall.
There were 20 organized storms in 2019, with 18 receiving names. Of all named storms, six developed into hurricanes.
The NOAA predicted last May a likely range of nine to 15 named storms, of which four to eight were predicted to become hurricanes, including two to four major hurricanes.