New league of their own?
Contender status doesn’t change a bit in Grapefruit East scenario.
Picture this post-pandemic scenario: the Astros avoid Mike Trout for an entire season, do not battle for the Silver Boot and the pesky, payroll-strapped Oakland Athletics are not a nagging threat to take over their American League West supremacy.
In exchange, the franchise is forced to relive the 2019 World Series far more often than it desires. Reigning National League Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom looms within a new, all-National League division — along with three of the four men who finished behind him in the voting.
What situation best suits the Astros? Assuming there is a 2020 season, the team’s championship window remains wide open. Looming free agency for George Springer, Michael Brantley and Yuli Gurriel creates a convincing argument that 2020 is the team’s final season with World Series-orbust expectations.
They’ve claimed three straight American League West crowns but might find an easier path to prominence if one of Major League Baseball’s contingency ideas is carried through. Nothing is off the table in a pursuit of salvaging a 2020 regular season — even eliminating traditional divisions.
Commissioner Rob Manfred spoke earlier this week in generalities. He confirmed various contingencies are under discussion but refused to suggest the league is proceeding with any concrete plan. Public health remains the league’s foremost concern.
“Baseball is not going to return until the public health situation has improved to the point that we’re comfortable that we can play games in a manner that’s safe for our players, our employees, our fans, and in a way that will not impact the public health situation adversely,” Manfred told Fox Business Network on Tuesday.
Two ideas leaked during the past two weeks generated the most discussion. According to an ESPN report, the league and players union was “increasingly focused” on sequestering all 30 teams in Arizona, where the regular season would be played among the 10 spring training stadiums, Chase Field and other nearby facilities. Logistics seem hellacious and, in some cases, unfeasible. Presumably, though, teams would remain in their respective divisions.
Another idea seems somewhat more practical but contains a bit of exhaustive realignment. Quoting an anonymous, high-ranking major league official, USA Today reported a possibility of sending teams back to their spring training homes and playing the regular season in both Arizona and Florida.
Doing so would eliminate divisions, temporarily transforming the Astros to a place with four foreign opponents. The realignment outlined in USA Today contained three divisions in both the Grapefruit and Cactus leagues.
The Astros would reside in the Grapefruit League East, joining the Washington Nationals, New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals and Miami Marlins. They are Houston’s four most common spring training opponents, so some familiarity exists with the personnel.
Comparing the stakes, preparation and strategy of regular-season play with spring training scrimmages is impossible, though. Houston hasn’t played the Mets or Marlins during the regular season since 2017. It took two of three from St. Louis at Busch Stadium last season. All remember the Astros’ last meeting with the Nationals.
Whether in the American League West or Grapefruit League East, the Astros distinguish themselves as a clear favorite. Both divisions have a clear cellar dweller — the Mariners in the AL West and Marlins in GL East — and a clog of teams that hover on the fringe. Oakland’s back-to-back 97-win seasons cannot be ignored. Neither can Washington’s wonderful run last year.
The Angels, Mets, Cardinals and Rangers were all projected to win between 78 and 85 games before the season. In February, when a 162-game season was expected, FanGraphs projected a 95win Astros club. None of their nine potential divisional foes eclipsed 89 wins in the same model.
Of course, that calculation came while viewing the team throughout a 162-game season. If baseball happens in 2020, the season will be shortened. Astros manager Dusty Baker intimated this week a shortened season could benefit his club, one that was staring at uncertainty and innings limits within the starting rotation.
In any division, the Astros’ returning lineup would strike fear. In a Grapefruit League East scenario, intrigue lies in whether it could handle elite starting pitching — much more than it would see in the American League West.
Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke are the totality of frontline starters in the AL West. Newly acquired Rangers ace Corey Kluber is a two-time Cy Young winner but missed almost all of last season with injury. The A’s put much hope in two touted rookies — Jesus Luzardo and AJ Puk — to complete a rotation built around Sean Manaea and Mike Fiers. Manaea, like Kluber, missed almost all of last season with an injury.
One everyday starter departed from an Astros offense FanGraphs rated a major-league high 40.8 wins above replacement. Oakland’s hitters were worth 28.5 fWAR in 2019 — the closest of any nine possible foes. The Nationals’ lineup had 26.0 fWAR. Bear in mind, though, their best offensive threat — Anthony Rendon — departed for the Angels this offseason.
Rendon’s departure would not diminish the name recognition in the Grapefruit League East. The Mets have deGrom and unanimous NL Rookie of the Year Pete Alonso at first base. Noted Astros killer Robinson Cano mans second base. In five seasons with Seattle, Cano crushed Houston, accruing an .897 OPS and .521 slugging percentage against Astros pitching.
Washington has World Series heroes Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer fronting its rotation, along with wunderkind outfielder Juan Soto — all of whom were problems for the Astros last October. Cardinals ace Jack Flaherty finished fourth in NL Cy Young voting last season, too.
Facing Flaherty, deGrom, Strasburg and Scherzer with regularity is a daunting task, but one the Astros might encounter during a shortened season, where every regular-season game is magnified.
“This team is so talented that you’d have to give them the nod in any situation,” Baker said.