Don’t bet on ‘Trader Bill’ standing pat
Dealing down from the 40th overall pick might fit with team’s long-term philosophy, especially in this abnormal offseason
Beginning in the second round, the Texans have seven draft choices, and I expect Trader Bill to wheel and deal.
It’s going to be tough for Bill O’Brien to sit out the first round, of course. He’ll have to keep reminding himself left tackle is no longer an issue after the Laremy Tunsil trade.
“We're in a good position relative to where we were during this time last year,” O’Brien said.
Yes, they are, especially up front with Tunsil, right tackle Tytus Howard and left guard
Max Scharping being added before last season.
Perhaps O’Brien will trade back into the first round, but that would be costly, probably too costly for him.
Before we get into what I believe O’Brien and executive vice president of football operations Jack Easterby will do over the three-day draft — like trading down from the 40th pick in the second round — I think it’ll be shocking if they draft an offensive player with their first selection.
When it comes to Friday and the second round, maybe if a wide receiver or an offensive lineman the Texans have given first-round grades were to drop into the second round, that position might be too good for O’Brien to pass up. More than likely, though, is O’Brien targeting the defense early because of the moves he’s already made on offense.
While subtracting receiver DeAndre Hopkins from the offense, the Texans have added receivers Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb and running back David Johnson, all of whom who should play significant roles if they stay healthy.
While subtracting nose tackle D.J. Reader from the defense, the Texans have added role players in end Tim Jernigan and safeties Eric Murray and Jaylen Watkins. If Jernigan is healthy, he should be a splendid addition to the defensive line. Murray and Watkins have combined for nine seasons and 21 starts — 15 by Murray — in the NFL.
Before Reader left for Cincinnati, the Texans already needed help on the defensive line and in the secondary.
The Texans’ biggest needs are an interior defensive lineman who can rush the passer, a safety and a cornerback. It won’t surprise me if O’Brien uses the 40th overall pick to move down and acquire another pick or two.
“You’re going to draft based on who is the best player for your team when you’re picking at that pick,” O’Brien said Thursday in his pre-draft conference call with the media.
Then O’Brien hinted at what could be his strategy.
“If there’s a bunch of players you think can fit your team, maybe you think about doing some other things within the draft,” he said.
In other words, trading down. Until last week, I thought the first pick would be a defensive end in their three-man front who could play tackle in passing situations and get an inside push.
I don’t expect all of these candidates to be available when the Texans make their first pick — and all could be gone — but TCU’s Ross Blacklock, Auburn’s Marlon Davidson, Missouri’s Jordan Elliott, Texas A&M’s Justin Madubuike and Oklahoma’s Neville Gallimore could fit the Texans’ need.
Now, though, I’m thinking a safety might be the Texans’ first pick. In his conference call, O’Brien mentioned every cornerback and safety on the team who played in the NFL last season, but he omitted one — Tashaun Gipson Sr., a starter last season.
Gipson, who turns 30 in August and is entering his ninth season, missed the two playoff games with a back injury. He missed two games in regular season. Maybe O’Brien is looking for a replacement.
The Texans didn’t re-sign safety Jahleel Addae. Murray and Watkins have primarily been reserves in their careers. I’m sure O’Brien would like to find another talented safety like
Justin Reid, a third-round pick in 2018 who has become one of their better players.
“Safety is another position I think we can add to,” O’Brien said.
The Texans won’t have a shot at the best safeties like Alabama’s Xavier McKinney and LSU’s Grant Delpit. But the others might be available, and there’s a smorgasbord of prospects like Minnesota’s Antoine Winfield Jr., Lenoir-Rhyne’s Kyle Dugger, Southern Illinois’ Jeremy Chinn, California’s Ashtyn Davis and Utah’s Terrell Burgess.
That’s a lot to choose from. Depending on where he picks and who’s available, O’Brien could go with a cornerback first, but he’s got six on his roster who played for the Texans last season.
Murray is listed at safety, but he has experience as a slot corner. Watkins is listed as a defensive back because he’s played safety and corner. That’s eight possible corners with NFL experience.
That makes me think a safety could be the first or second pick. I won’t be surprised if safety, defensive lineman and cornerback are the first three picks.
In the middle and lower rounds, I look for O’Brien to draft an offensive lineman, receiver and running back for that side of the ball.
Something else to watch closely based on what O’Brien said on Thursday: Will he trade picks for veterans, or will he trade picks for 2021 draft choices?
With the coronavirus pandemic causing the NFL to have no on-field coaching, minicamps, OTAs and the possibility training camp will be shortened, rookies this year will be at a disadvantage compared to normal offseason programs.
“With the unique position we're in, I truly believe this is a veteran type of year,” O’Brien said. “I think it's going to be difficult for rookies without offseason practicing on the field and being able to do all the things you do during that fiveweek stretch after the draft and then training camp.
“Who knows when all that will start. I'm not trying to predict that, but I think this year being different than any other year is part of our building the team.”