Texans taking analytical approach to rebooting franchise.
Bill O’Brien and the Texans are turning to a more analytical approach to reboot the franchise and take the next step
Believe it or not, there is a plan.
It is why new CEO Cal McNair has bought in so heavily to the new Bill O’Brien-Jack Easterby partnership.
It is why O’Brien — head coach/general manager and previously the Texans’ offensive playcaller — has more power than every coach in the NFL not named Bill Belichick, despite the Texans’ king still seeking his first divisional round playoff win.
And, yes, frustrated and concerned Texans fans, it is ultimately why the NFL team on Kirby Drive traded away All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins and former No. 1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney during a franchise-changing six-and-a-half month span.
This isn’t the Astros’ massive and unprecedented rebuild from the start of the previous decade, which stripped the organization down to its foundation and produced three consecutive 100-loss seasons, then produced three consecutive 100-win campaigns, two World Series appearances and a 2017 world championship*.
The Texans also won’t immediately be confused with the Philadelphia 76ers, Tampa Bay Rays, Washington Nationals, Chicago Cubs or Cleveland Browns.
The Texans are revamping with a 24-year-old franchise quarterback, not rebuilding.
But there is a new master plan. It blends the normal contemporary buzzwords (analytics, projections) with a better understanding of modern athletic value and a renewed emphasis on personal drive and character.
And if the Texans prove about 95 percent of us wrong, it will be because of two primary reasons.
• 1. Deshaun Watson is a Super Bowl-caliber quarterback.
• 2. At a time when almost everyone was yelling mean things at the Texans, they worked through the noise and surrounded D4 with a deep, diverse roster that complimented his strongest traits.
“After studying teams that win in January, win in February, our staff is more convinced than ever that we must be prepared to have layers upon layers of productive players who can build on the tradition that we have established here of winning the AFC South four out of the last five years and to try to get beyond that,” O’Brien said this week during the team’s annual predraft press conference. “We’ve studied. We’ve researched. This time has given myself and our staff a lot of time to reflect. And obviously I know we want to be better. But I think if you look back to — let’s just call it August, the end of last July — I don’t think either myself or anybody involved with the Texans, or even our fans, would have thought that some of the moves that we made would have worked out the way they worked out.”
That’s a fascinating quote, if you know your recent Texans’ history.
It was also part of O’Brien’s opening remarks to the local media, which means that the words were intentional and prepared.
Two above references stood out the most.
• 1. Studying teams that win in January and February.
• 2. Layers upon layers of productive players.
They partly explain why the NFL value that Hopkins represents — talent, reliability, current and future salary cap hits, immediate and long term on-field contributions — became David Johnson and the No. 40 overall pick in Thursday’s draft. And why Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb are new offensive weapons for Watson.
The Texans will soon be paying three core players All-Pro money: Laremy Tunsil, J.J. Watt, Watson.
If Will Fuller plays like a No. 1 wide receiver in the Texans’ post-Hopkins world (and finally stays healthy), he will likely receive a major extension.
Agree with it or hate it, but Hopkins and Clowney didn’t fit into O’Brien’s vision of how the Texans’ roster should be shaped. As Trader Bill keeps churning his rapidly changing 53, the NFL’s information-driven new age is informing the Texans’ decisions more than ever.
“We use Russell Joyner (director of football information systems) and his group quite a bit, relative to everything from the prediction of an injury to the value of a trade, to the value of a contract relative to the player, relative to the market,” O’Brien said. “I would also mention Kevin Krajcovic (director of football administration), who has been tremendous for us in charge of the salary cap. He does a great job for us. We’ve also, if this makes sense, we’ve taken Tim Brog, our director of video production, he’s a very bright guy, so you’re talking about a lot of brain power here. … Before we do anything, there’s layers of research that really they do and they produce that research, they give it to us.”
The new plan obviously only works if O’Brien wins it all. He’s doubled down on himself many times, many ways. He’s entering his seventh season engulfed by criticism and condemnation.
Those of you with a funny bone will joke that’s nothing new. But have you read the fan replies to a general Texans tweet lately? Yeesh. Hopefully the director of football information systems has shown O’Brien how to use the social-media mute button.
“We’re really taking advantage of our tremendous analytics department and making as good of decisions as we can for the team,” O’Brien said. “Sometimes for the fans, that’s hard because — I get it. You see a guy like DeAndre Hopkins, who’s not here anymore. I understand that. DeAndre is a great football player. But that decision, relative to our team, we felt was in the best interest of our team. Not just for next year but moving into the future.”
When the Texans wasted way too much time on too many quarterbacks from 2014-16, they finally got bold and traded up for Watson.
Now, they are supposed to be building their team around Watson, just like reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City constructed the Chiefs around Patrick Mahomes.
There is a plan.
The Texans, at the top, fully believe in what they’re doing.
Now would be a perfect time for O’Brien, Easterby, McNair and Co. to prove an ever-growing chorus of critics wrong.