Work needed down on farm
Restocking depleted minor league system is a priority for new GM
GM James Click knows club must restock since veterans reaching crossroads.
Uncertainty shrouds almost all aspects of James Click’s immediate plans for the Astros. Whether he will see a team in either the major or minor leagues play a regular season game this year is in doubt. How much four draft picks will help Houston’s fading farm system is unclear, too.
Despite it all, sustainability remains the overarching goal. Jeff Luhnow spoke of it often and sold Jim Crane on the vision — one where the franchise’s championship window remains open regardless of circumstance.
Click shares the objective, minus the malfeasance committed under Luhnow’s watch. Click’s initial conversations with Crane entailed the “long view” of an Astros organization abruptly approaching a crossroads. Household names are approaching free agency with few proven internal options to replace them.
Houston’s entire starting outfield and starting first baseman will enter free agency after 2020, regardless of whether a season is played. Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Carlos Correa and Lance McCullers Jr. are under club control only through 2021.
The shutdown promises to place the franchise in a precarious economic position, too, perhaps limiting how much Click can patrol the open market for reinforcements or seek high-priced reunions. Talks with player representatives cannot occur while the sport is in a transaction and roster freeze during the shutdown.
While he was still overseeing baseball operations before Click’s arrival, Crane said he “made it clear” to George Springer and his representatives that the team was interested in an extension. Springer and Mookie Betts will be the two most sought-after outfielders on the 2020 free-agent market.
“While those conversations can happen (internally), it’s not necessarily an area of focus right now,” Click said.
One urgent need is upgrading the Astros’ farm system, one outside rankings put among the five worst in the sport.
“There’s just no way to succeed year over year and have sustained success at the major league level unless you just have waves of these kids coming, and not just coming, but ready to contribute and win from day one,” Click said.
“The focus for us is going to be the entire system, but from my vantage point, there is more talent here than has been credited on the public ranking lists.”
Click’s assessment is unsurprising. Teams often balk at outside rankings and adhere to an internal method of valuing their prospects.
Still, the contrasts between what Click left behind and what he now controls are evident. Tampa Bay’s farm system is unanimously regarded as the best in baseball. Baseball America ranks
Houston’s No. 27. MLB.com pegs it 28th.
“As to where (the Astros system) needs to be supplemented or improved or changed, honestly, it’s everywhere,” Click said. “We’re always going to want to have as much talent on hand in the minor leagues as possible. It’s something that obviously was a big part of my job with the Rays, and it obviously had been a big part of the Astros organization over time.”
A trade and two graduations gutted Houston’s system before Click’s arrival.
Luhnow gave away the largest prospect package of his tenure for Zack Greinke last July. Unanimous American League Rookie of the Year Yordan Alvarez passed from prospect to major league power hitter. On the last day of the regular season, Kyle Tucker took his 131st career at-bat, officially exhausting his prospect status, too.
If Tucker had not taken that final at-bat and his prospect label had stayed intact, public perception of the Astros system might be more favorable. Alas, without Tucker and Alvarez, the team has one consensus top-100 prospect — pitcher Forrest Whitley.
His development remains an enigma, derailed by ineffectiveness, injury and a drug suspension. Whitley arrived to spring training in February “not physically ready” to compete for a major league role, according to pitching coach Brent Strom.
“I don’t feel like the system is, I don’t want to say barren, but any time you have outside publications ranking your system in the 20s, there’s room for improvement from the outside,” Click said. “That said, I think if you look at the performance of our players throughout the system, they may not have been first-round draft picks, second-round draft picks or big international signings, but they’re going out there and they’re performing.”
The system has plenty of intriguing pitchers.
Jose Urquidy and Bryan Abreu appeared in the 2019 postseason. Cristian Javier and Brandon Bielak are among the few who appear on the cusp of major league readiness. Jojanse Torres, Jairo Solis, Tyler Ivey, Luis Garcia and Hunter Brown have impressed in the lower minor leagues, appearing toward the middle of most organizational talent rankings.
“They’re doing the kinds of things and developing the kind of skills we know they need to be successful at the major league level,” Click said. “Whether that translates into a high prospect ranking or not is not something we’re concerned about. We’re concerned about arming these kids with the weapons they’re going to need to compete and win at the major league level.”
Tucker and Alvarez were the extent of Houston’s position player prospect capital. Abraham Toro, whom some teams asked about in trade talks during the offseason, is a versatile defender known much more for his bat. But with the Astros’ entrenched infield, he does not have a route to everyday play.
Outfielders are more difficult to find.
The trades of Derek Fisher, J.D. Davis and Jake Marisnick have left the cupboard bare. Of the Astros’ top 20 prospects, according to both Baseball America and MLBPipeline, just two are outfielders — 2019 draftees Jordan Brewer and Colin Barber. Neither has appeared above Class A Advanced.
Both are in desperate need of development and professional experience. The feeling extends to the entire Astros system, one teeming with young talent not yet on the precipice of major league readiness.
But this could be a season with no minor league games to help those young players develop. While a worst-case scenario, a lost minor league season is something the Astros’ technologically innovative player development group “is very well suited for,” Click said.
“Their ability to be creative coming up with ways to keep the players going, keeping them engaged, and keep them developing even when they can’t get game reps, I’ve been very impressed with our player development group and their willingness to think of completely different ways to teach baseball given the constraints of this situation,” Click said.