Some careful analysis
As the Astros prepare to commence with the 2020 schedule Friday night at Minute Maid Park, here is how the club looks heading into the season:
This club still has an everyday lineup that takes a back seat to none, so there will be days when it flexes its muscle and romps.
But if it takes 34 or so wins to make the playoffs in a 60-game season, the Astros will probably need at least a couple of their young pitchers to contribute significantly in the rotation or bullpen. In other words, they don’t have to be Gerrit Cole or Will Harris, but they can’t all be deer in headlights.
STARTING PITCHING
Defending AL Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander, whose 0.80 WHIP last year was the third lowest in modern baseball history, anchors a rotation that begins the season in flux. The 37-year-old ace, coming off the first 300-strikeout season in his illustrious career, would have missed substantial time had the season started as planned, but he is recovered from March groin surgery as has dazzled in intrasquad games.
Zack Greinke is back after going 18-5 (8-1 in 10 Astros starts) as a 35-year-old last season, and Lance McCullers Jr. returns after missing all of last season because of Tommy John surgery. After that come question marks.
Jose Urquidy, who emerged in the national consciousness last postseason, has been absent from summer camp, and newcomer Austin Pruitt has battled elbow inflammation. That makes Josh James and Framber Valdez the likely fourth and fifth starters to begin the season, although pitching coach Brent Strom has left open the possibility of “piggybacking” long relievers at the outset of a game.
Don’t be surprised if Cristian Javier, the organization’s top minor league pitcher a year ago, gets an opportunity here. Nor is it out of the question that Forrest Whitley, still regarded as the organization’s top prospect despite an underwhelming minor league career, gets a chance after making some inroads during summer camp.
BULLPEN
Here are three reasons this has become the team’s chief area of concern: 1) Closer Roberto Osuna reported to camp late and out of shape; 2) Will Harris, the team’s best reliever a year ago, is now with the Washington Nationals; and 3) Joe Smith, signed to a two-year deal in the offseason, looks like he’ll be sitting this season out because of family concerns tied to COVID-19.
It’s imperative that chief setup man Ryan Pressly regain his All-Star form after struggling with a knee injury during last season’s second half. Bryan Abreu could well get the chance to make an impact, and it would be nice if Chris Devenski recaptured the form that made him such a weapon in 2016 and 2017. Brad Peacock, who also is a rotation option, can eat up innings but has been battling shoulder inflammation.
Joe Biagini and Cy Sneed will likely make the roster at season’s outset, as could Blake Taylor, if only because he’s a lefthander. But any of the pitchers in their 2020 player pool (29, not including Smith) could potentially be employed by season’s end, so remember the names Brandon Bielak, Enoli Paredes and Jojanse Torres.
CATCHER
Martin Maldonado, who began the last two seasons elsewhere before landing in Houston, resigned with the Astros and becomes the No. 1 backstop with Robinson Chirinos back in Arlington. A defensive stalwart with one Gold Glove to his credit, Maldonado hit only .202 in 27 games (84 at-bats) with the Astros, but six of his 12 homers came with the club.
Dustin Garneau, who totaled 35 major league games last season with the Angels and A’s, signed a free-agent deal with the Astros in November. Garrett Stubbs is the prime catching candidate for the three-man taxi squad each team can take on road trips.
FIRST BASE
After adjusting his batting stance during the season last year, Yuli Gurriel went from solid to spectacular. In the 50 games of July and August, he hit .376 with 19 home runs, 18 doubles and 60 RBIs. With two months like that in 2020, he’d give the Astros strong reason to re-sign him.
Utility man Aledmys Diaz will be Gurriel’s primary backup, though Kyle Tucker could also see some time at first.
SECOND BASE
Jose Altuve’s .298 average last year kept him just shy of a sixth straight .300 season, but he wasn’t really himself until his knees were full healthy. In 69 games after the All-Star break, he slashed .325/.372/.622 with 21 homers, 59 runs and 49 RBIs. That’s why he remains among the game’s elite second basemen.
It’s likely Altuve would prefer never to get a day off in a 60game season (or 162-game season for that matter). If he does get a breather, Aledmys Diaz or Yuli Gurriel can spell him.
SHORTSTOP
Injury issues have prevented Carlos Correa from firmly establishing himself as one of the game’s top players. That said, the 2015 AL Rookie of the Year did slug .568 with 21 homers and 59 RBIs in 75 games last year. And he has looked fully healthy in summer camp.
Because he can play shortstop quite capably, as was the case when Correa was injured last year, Alex Bregman is the top backup.
THIRD BASE
Alex Bregman is 26 and only getting better. His OPS has progressed annually, going from .791 in his rookie season to .827, then .926, then 1.015 last year. As the MVP runner-up in 2019, he established career highs across his slash line (.296/.423/.592) while totaling 41 homers, 122 runs and 112 RBIs, also personal bests. His MLB-leading 119 walks helped him reach base a major leaguehigh 292 times, 16 more then Mookie Betts and Marcus Semien.
Abraham Toro and Aledmys Diaz back up Bregman.
LEFT FIELD
The consummate professional hitter, Michael Brantley was an All-Star in his first Astros season, producing the second-highest batting average (.311) and slugging percentage (.502) of his career, as well as a career-best 22 home runs. Houston gets only 60 games out of him in the final year of a two-year contract that sets him up for another go-round at free agency.
Aledmys Diaz, Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez back up Brantley.
CENTER FIELD
By George, the Astros hope they don’t have to say bye, George. George Springer enters his walk year as the most dangerous leadoff man in the American League. (Fellow free agent to be Mookie Betts will now be batting first for the Dodgers.) An MVP candidate before a left hamstring strain interrupted his season, Springer nonetheless finished 2019 with a career-best 39 homers and 96 RBIs in 122 games. His slash line (.292/.383/.591) was also full of personal highs.
Myles Straw will back up Springer and serve as the Astros’ top pinch-running option.
RIGHT FIELD
Josh Reddick’s four-year contract expires at season’s end, likely making this his last hurrah in Houston. Last year’s .275/.319/ .409 slash line was a slight improvement over 2018, but it also creates an opportunity for Kyle Tucker, who figures to see his share of time in right.
Tucker, who showed little in a 2018 trial, fared much better in 22 September games last year, slashing .269/.319/.537 while totaling 10 extra-base hits (six doubles, four home runs) in 67 at-bats. He also stole five bases.
DESIGNATED HITTER
Where have you gone, Yordan Alvarez? Last season, he was the AL Rookie of the Year, batting .313/.412/.655 with 27 homers and 78 RBIs in 87 games. But he’s been a summer camp absentee because of a “condition that prevents him from reporting to the field.” When (if?) he’s able to join the club, he figures to fill this role on a regular basis.
Until then, Kyle Tucker gets an added opportunity for playing time. And if new manager Dusty Baker emulates former skipper A.J. Hinch here, look for some of the positional regulars, particularly Michael Brantley, to get the occasional turn.