Despite surges, scientists say world remains in first wave

Australia. Belgium. Hong Kong. Israel. Spain. Vietnam.

Places around the world that fought back coronavirus outbreaks in the spring are reporting record surges in new cases. In the U.S., Texas, Florida and Arizona, along with other states, have become epicenters.

Many countries have celebrated contractions in case numbers, only to see new spikes. According to some public officials, a second swell is around the corner. “I’m afraid you are starting to see in some places the signs of a second wave,” British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said this week.

Not so fast or simple, many researchers warn.

“We are still in the first wave,” said Loren Lipworth, an epidemiologist at Vanderbilt University Medical Center. “As we ease up on restrictions, there is always going to be a resurgence in cases. It’s not that it’s a new wave of the virus.”

A “second wave,” in the context of a viral pandemic, does not have a formal scientific definition. It is most often understood to describe two scenarios: when an outbreak recedes almost entirely before returning or when it ebbs and flows on a seasonal basis. Mutations in the virus may occur along the way, sparking new infections.

David Weber, an epidemiologist and medical director at the University of North Carolina Medical Center in Chapel Hill, said the term has been used to describe trends during past outbreaks, including the 1918 influenza and 2003 SARS outbreak in Toronto.

In those instances, unlike most countries’ coronavirus outbreaks, “they essentially got down to zero” new infections before a second surge, he said.

But few places have banished the virus only to see it return, while many have seen infection levels drop amid lockdowns and rise as economies restart.

“This is going to wax and wane,” he said. “Its worldwide now.”

The idea of a second wave is flawed and could be misleading, because it obscures the continuous threat the virus poses, along with the need to keep stringent measures in place, World Health Organization spokesperson Margaret Harris said during a news briefing Tuesday.

The WHO proposed a different turn of phrase: “One big wave.”

The severity of the ongoing wave is modulated by the adoption of and adherence to policies mean to slow the spread, experts said.

“What is affecting the transmission of this virus is mass gatherings, it is people coming together and people not social distancing, not taking the precautions to ensure they are not in close contact,” Harris said at the briefing.

Weber said he prefers to picture COVID-19 as a wave that grows and shrinks — with perhaps many peaks.

“It’s going to go up and down a bit,” Harris said. “The best thing is to flatten it and turn it into just something lapping at your feet.”