Nation is concerned violence will arise
This weekend, several dozen people will arrive at secret locations in West Virginia and Colorado to ride out the election and its aftermath. If Tuesday’s vote sparks unrest, Drew Miller’s customers at Fortitude Ranch will be secure behind walls patrolled by armed guards.
“Could the election devolve into civil war? Unlikely,” said Miller, the founder of a budding network of members-only survivalist camps. “But look at World War I: Some worthless, lowlevel archduke gets assassinated, and things escalate out of control. I’ve got people who are concerned that all it would take is a close election and some cheating.”
In Portland, Ore., where a right-wing armed group plans to show up at polling places Tuesday with weapons in plain view, some extreme left-wing organizers are preparing to do the same.
“The right is not going to give up their power unless they feel threatened,” said Olivia Katbi Smith, a cochair of the Democratic Socialists of America in Portland. “People are opening up to the idea that a riot is the language of the unheard. Property destruction is not violence.”
On the eve of a presidential election fraught with tension, warning flares are bursting across U.S. skies. From federal and local law enforcement to analysts who track radical groups, concern is high about the possibility that violence could erupt, especially if the vote count drags on for days without a clear winner.
The signals are disturbing: A sharp increase in gun sales. A spike in chatter about civil war in online forums where right-wing extremists gather. An embrace of violent language by President Donald Trump and other leaders. And surveys showing an increased willingness by some Americans to see violence as an acceptable tool against political opponents.
“We’re talking about violence in U.S. elections, and that’s insane,” said Lisa Kaplan, CEO of the Alethea Group, a Washington company that tracks disinformation efforts. “This is a real threat, and we have seen increased confidence among the militias.”
Isolated flare-ups
Even those who take the threat seriously say there is no evidence of any coordinated plan for widespread violence, and that isolated flare-ups are a more likely scenario. Equally important: “The vast majority of Americans across political lines reject violence, no matter what,” said Rachel Brown, executive director of Over Zero, a nonprofit group that focuses on preventing identity-based violence.
Yet Americans are unusually anxious about this election — and about violence in its aftermath. A You Gov poll found 56 percent of voters saying they expect “an increase in violence as a result of the election.”
“Militia groups and other armed nonstate actors pose a serious threat to the safety and security of American voters,” said the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, a nonprofit organization that researches political violence and has tracked more than 80 extremist groups in recent months. A report by the project said Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Oregon “are at highest risk of increased militia activity in the election and postelection period.”
Oren Segal’s job is to track extremists and assess the danger they pose. He monitors their online chatter, traces foreign efforts to distort information that reaches U.S. voters and works with law enforcement to neutralize extremist messaging.
But as vice president of the Anti-Defamation League’s Center on Extremism, Segal says he is struggling: “I don’t want to amplify the voices of extremists because the last thing we want is to help them create fear and anxiety. But people need to know there is real concern, that these are the perfect conditions for extremists to try to create chaos.”
“It’s complicated,” Brown said, “because you don’t want to ignore what’s going on. A lot of these guys are trying to inflate themselves. They want to be seen as big and scary, even if they’re a joke. They’re seeking to create fear. It helps them recruit.”
The International Crisis Group, a Washingtonbased organization that provides early warnings to countries in danger of falling into violent conflict, never expected to issue alerts about the U.S. But early this summer, the ICG did just that, concluding that conflict could arise from the country’s political polarization, the growing presence of armed extremists, the possibility of prolonged uncertainty about the outcome of the vote, and a president who deploys martial rhetoric and refuses to guarantee a peaceful transfer of power if he loses.
Gun sales jump
Nationwide, gun sales have spiked in periods when buyers fear a government crackdown on firearms sales, such as when Barack Obama was elected president in 2008 or after especially horrific mass shootings.
This year, sales have jumped 75 percent above last year’s, soaring beyond the peaks recorded after mass shootings in 2012 (the Sandy Hook Elementary School massacre), 2015 (the terrorist attack in San Bernardino, Calif.) and 2016 (the Pulse nightclub shooting in Orlando, Fla.).
According to a Washington Post analysis of FBI background check data, this year’s first major spike in sales — to 2 million a month, up from less than 1.5 million during the 2016 campaign— came in March, when many states went into lockdown to combat the COVID-19 pandemic. That leaped to 2.8 million purchases in June and was 2.7 million in July as street protests and riots occurred in multiple cities after the police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis.
So far, Americans have bought more than 18 million weapons this year, with big surges in red and blue states alike, the analysis found.
At Schultz’s Sportsmen’s Stop in Pennsylvania’s Armstrong County, northeast of Pittsburgh, the parade of customers covers the ideological waterfront. “Blue-collar, white-collar, andmy customers are from both sides — Republicans, Democrats,” said owner Debbie Schultz, 65. “Doctors, lawyers, people come from all over. People are Googling ‘guns’ and then drive over… from West Virginia. Same thing with New York state.”
Across the country, law enforcement officials have been planning for the election with an unusual focus on potential violence.
Philadelphia’s district attorney, Larry Krasner, expanded a task force that aims to be ready to move immediately against any effort to disrupt voting. In Portland, city officials have discussed imposing a curfew if violence breaks out. In Beverly Hills, Calif., police asked business owners to board up windows on Rodeo Drive as a precaution against election night protests.
Prevention is key
Analysts said the most effective protection against violence, however, is not police preparation but prevention of voter intimidation, a quick vote count, and a consensus among political leaders and news organizations to hold back on declaring a winner until results are rock solid.
“The strongest bulwark against violence is a feeling that the election proceeded cleanly and fairly,” said Stephen Pomper, the senior director for policy at ICG. “If it’s seen as rigged, the risk of violence goes up considerably.”
The ADL’s Segal agreed. “Maybe, just maybe, we get through Election Day and see that there wasn’t really a will to come out and fight in the streets,” Segal said.
If so, “we will have dodged a bullet,” he said, “because our public discussion is in a dangerous place.”