Experts urge caution in using virus risk tools
For many Americans these days, the mere idea of leaving the house prompts a question: “What’s the risk?” And often, they find that even after scrutinizing data on novel coronavirus cases and poring over public health recommendations, there still isn’t a clear answer.
“The majority of us are going to underestimate the risk if we just leave it to our COVID-fatigued brains to do the math,” said Emily Landon, chief infectious-disease epidemiologist at University of Chicago Medicine. Tools and dashboards may be able to help give people “a much better idea about howmuch risk is associated with the things that they’re going to do.”
But Landon and other experts say people should be cautious when using risk assessment tools and not rely too heavily on a single source, which could create a false sense of security as coronavirus cases continue to surge.
People can find information about the spread of the virus in their communities and nationwide through online data dashboards maintained by states, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, universities such as Johns Hopkins and national media outlets.
Beyond simply tracking cases, some tools are attempting to communicate a clearer sense of the risk associated with individual behaviors, such as gathering with a group of people.
A group of researchers from the Georgia Institute of Technology launched an interactive map that uses realtime data to show the risk of attending events. The research behind the Georgia
Tech map was published this month in the peer-reviewed journal Nature.
The map was developed with the goal of connecting dense data to questions people may be asking themselves, such aswhether they should go to a restaurant or sporting event, said Joshua Weitz, a professor of biological sciences atGeorgiaTech and one of the researchers behind the tool. “It’s hard for people to make sense of that just based on case levels.… Whatwe tried to do is make this intuitive and accessible to all.”
Users of the map tool can choose an event size between 10 and 5,000 people and see what the estimated risk would be that at least one person in attendance is infected, depending on the location. If, for example, someone was thinking of attending an event with 50 other people in the Washington, D.C., area, as of Thursday evening, the map indicated a risk level of about 40 percent.
William Borden, a professor of medicine and health policy at George Washington University, called the map, which drills down to the county level, a “really powerful tool” but urged people to be mindful of the data’s limitations.
For instance, the Georgia Tech map doesn’t tell you your risk of actually contracting the virus at an event, Borden said.
“That’s because your risk depends on a whole bunch of other factors, like is it outdoors or indoors?” he said. “Are peoplewearing masks? Is there distancing? What’s the ventilation? Are people touching objects? There are all these other factors that we have to really pay close attention to in order to reduce our risk of getting COVID-19.”