Fight the virus to save the economy
Joe Biden’s victory does not mean the United States economy will succumb to a socialist, eco-dictatorship in January. COVID-19 is the clear and present danger.
The coronavirus has infected more than a million Texans, and another million could fall ill before vaccinations are widely available. Hospital beds are filling up, the death toll is climbing and consumers are sequestering themselves again, taking the wind out of the economic recovery.
President Donald
Trump lied when he said the pandemic would soon end. And he misled Americans when he said we must choose between economic growth and public health. Now that the election is over, let’s get serious about reducing infections and creating jobs.
If we can pull our stuff together for nine months, we could prevent a lot of pain, suffering and loss. If we could set aside our
tribalism and cooperate in the name of humanity, we could get our lives and businesses back.
Don’t be fooled by the limited successes since July. The stock market rallied on Pfizer’s announcement of a vaccine, but the stock market bets on what will happen next year. Stock prices do not reflect what’s happening on Main Street today.
More than 10 million Americans have still not returned to work since losing their jobs earlier this year. Expanded unemployment benefits and $1,200 checks to workingclass Americans helped keep household income steady, but not for much longer.
A good portion of them will exhaust their unemployment benefits at the end of the year. Unless Congress extends additional aid, many families will not make rent in January, when the pandemic is expected to peak.
Businesses are not doing much better.
Corporate earnings among the S&P 500 index were better than expected, but they are down 16 percent compared to last year. Companies are earning the same amount they did in 2018.
The pandemic is devastating small and mediumsized businesses. More than 4,000 companies have filed for bankruptcy protection, up more than 25 percent compared to previous years, according to Epiq, a legal services data provider.
State and local governments are preparing to scale back operations and lay off workers. Texas schools have already eliminated 35,400 jobs and will cut more next year, according to an analysis of employment data by the Pew research group.
The Federal Reserve has kept the nation out of a depression by nationalizing financial markets with unlimited cash support. But the central bank can only do so much for so long without crashing the economy.
We know what to do if only we can cooperate. Economic and health data from South Korea and Japan prove the financial benefits of swift, decisive action to identify the infected, trace their contacts and severely restrict movement during outbreaks.
“What appears to be a trade- off and an antagonism in the short term not only disappears in the long term but actually becomes a synergy,” Stephen Kissler, a researcher in public health at Harvard University, told the Wall Street Journal. “Only by addressing the spread of the virus will we be able to tackle these economic problems.”
The problem is the costs and benefits are not shared equally. Travel, hospitality and leisure businesses and their employees suffer from the closures, while the entire economy benefits from slowing infections.
If we allow the virus to spread like wildfire until a vaccine is widely available, not only will we ruin millions of lives, we’ll hobble the economy and delay the vaccine’s benefits. If the disease is spreading faster than we can provide vaccines, we’ll be running on ice and extending the crisis.
Every state is reporting more infections and hospitalizations. Rising fatalities will follow. We need a national strategy based on science and data, not on gut instincts and political pressure.
Some counties and states will need to lock down, while others can remain open. To business owners who resist closing their doors, there is only one question: How many of your customers and their loved ones do you want to kill or disable?
Congress must simultaneously deliver a targeted relief program to make whole those businesses and workers who must sacrifice for the rest of us. The government should not sacrifice them. Lawmakers can strike a deal where the amount of aid is contingent on economic data rather than set a fixed number.
Lastly, these steps cannot wait for a new president. People’s lives and livelihoods are at stake, and Trump took an oath to protect and defend us. He needs to accept reality and do what’s necessary.
We can see the end of the crisis. The challenge is saving as many lives and businesses as possible to make it to the other side.
If we allow the virus to spread like wildfire until a vaccine is widely available, not only will we ruin millions of lives, we’ll hobble the economy and delay the vaccine’s benefits.