GOING FOR JACKPOT
This retooled roster can contend— if— several key pieces come around as hoped
After a trying offseason, the Rockets could contend for a championship — but only if a lot goes right.
As Rockets and noted casino owner Tilman Fertitta knows well, slot machines sometimes pay off. It does not happen often, but when the numbers line up just right, there are flashing lights and loud noises and someone is very happy.
Fertitta and the Rockets are counting on it.
Their odds are perhaps better than with even “the loosest slots.” But their season, their hopes and possibilities, are dependent on having things fall fortuitously into place to hit the jackpot.
They need one “if” after another tocomethrough. But it is better to have those possibilities, even amid areas of uncertainty both typical and unusual, than to not have that hope at all.
“For me, that’s the expectation,” Rockets coach Stephen Silas said. “There are ifs. But the ifs are based on previous success. The ifs are based on historical perspective. The injury part of ifs is always a part of the NBA. I wouldn’t say the things (thatmust come through) are in any way out of the realm of possibility. It’s our job to make those happen.”
The Rockets’ list of “ifs” is considerable and star-studded, but not built on fantasies.
The Rockets can succeed, perhaps even contend, if:
Guard John Wall and center DeMarcus Cousins prove to be back from their injuries and long, arduous rehabs, to be durable and to be at their familiar All-Star level;
Guard Eric Gordon regains the shooting touch that abandoned him last season and has the sort of healthy season he enjoyed when he first signed with the Rockets;
• Christian Wood demonstrates that his breakthrough season with the Pistons was not an aberration and that he can step up to the needs to defend through starter’s minutes he has never played before;
And most important, and potentially most unpredictable, James Harden makes his peace with being the face of the franchise for another season and plays at his level while also accepting and embracing the changes around him.
All can be considered possible. Some might even be probable. And other things, as with all teams, would have to gowell, too. But especially with the theory that as goes James Harden, so goes the Rockets, kick just one of those legs out from under the Rockets and things could tumble.
“We can be a really good team,” Silas said. “We’re going to strive to do that every single day and get better and better and better. But to be able to pinpointwherewe’re going to be months from now after four preseason games is really hard for me to do.”
Many teams can add up things they need to go right and consider it a pathway to contending. But there are also many that build for the long-term, that deep down knowthat the plan is not to immediately chase a championship or that the odds are far too long to consider.
Any team can hope to have good turn to great. The Rockets, at least for the moment, have great in Harden. Even after an offseason inwhich their coach, Mike D’Antoni, and general manager, Daryl Morey, bolted, after Russell Westbrook got hiswish to be traded and Harden has pushed to be moved, too, the Rockets have been reworked for immediate success rather than a slow rebuild.
They did fill the roster with a few 25-year-olds, most notably Wood. And they did begin to restock some of their almost empty shelves with a pair of first-round picks. But the players they acquired, again most notablyWood, fit with the current strengths and needs of a team thinking shortterm.
“You look at the roster adjustments, the changes that were made this summer,” Silas said. “Those are pointing to a team that’s looking to be successful and not looking to rebuild. Whenever you’re in any kind of early-season situation, your expectations are based on the roster you have at the time and the potential that you see in that roster. So, yeah, I look for special things for this group.”
Though adjustments could add another ‘if’ to the pile. The Rockets might need to get off to a good start, but the changes and the challenges of the preseason could make it more difficult to start fast.
Yet, even amid the uncertainty with the Harden trade saga, there has been reason found for optimism. It will also be a process, with progress slowed by Harden’s late arrival that cost him the entirety of training camp and two preseason games, and Wood’s sore elbow that kept him out of three preseason games.
“We’re going through a lot of new things,” Gordon said. “We’re all learning coach’s system. That’s going to take time. You got a lot of new players. We got to adjust to each other. That’s not going to happen in the nextweek or two. It takes time. Hopefully, we just have a good start for this year and kind of roll on.
“Our expectation is still to find ways to win and still try to find a way to win a championship.”
Silas believes he knows the way. As with the details, a good deal would have to come together. But there is that potential.
“If we’re a top five offensive team and a top 10 defensive team, we should be right there,” Silas said. “Ifwe’re consistent throughout the season as far as not having too many low lows, making sure we’re able to bounce back quickly from adversity, that’s a sign of a contending team.
“We want to be a top offensive team, obviously. But we want to be a very much improved defensive team. I think you see in… the preseason games that’s been a focus of ours. To be a top 10 defensive teamis a goal of ours. Ifwe do so, with the potent offense this organization has had for years, we’ll have a chance to do something special.”
The Rockets astutely seemed determined to get the adversity part out of theway before the season. The challenge with that plan is having those travails end now that the preseason is behind them. If it does, the Rockets can finally see Wood, Harden, Wall and Cousins play in the same game for the first time to develop the cohesion, especially in their latest star-filled backcourt, that comes with time the Rockets have not had.
“I saw the possibilities before we stepped on the floor,” Cousins said. “Those two guys’ track records speak for themselves, just their abilities on the floor. Once they build the chemistry and kind of understand each other’s games a little more, which will take time anyone, two ball-dominant players. Once they get on the same page, the sky’s the limit.”
That’s the general idea. It just takes Wall and Cousins to be healthy and at full strength, Gordon shooting well, Wood excelling and Harden buying in. And then to have the stars align in a few other ways, too.
“I think if everybody settles in, we’re very tough,” Wall said. “We know what James can do. We know what type of player P. J. (Tucker) is. We know what DeMarcus can do. We both have something to prove, have a chip on our shoulder. ChristianWood, this is the first time I think he’s understanding he’s a big key to a team. We need him to a be a big guy. We know what Eric Gordon todo. We loveDanuelHouse, Ben McLemore, all those guys that can make plays for us.
“When you have a guy like JamesHarden, you have a guy like me when I’m back and healthy, the sky’s the limit.”
The Rockets are, at least for now, willing to bet on it.