Deficit looming over state legislators
Up to $20B shortfall in state budget points to a no-frills session
Gambling lobbyists and marijuana advocates are circling around a wounded Texas state government with hopes that the worst financial situation in a decade will push reluctant lawmakers to finally look theirway for billions of dollars in potential revenues.
It is not just the coronavirus pandemic that is clouding the state’s finances, but also a dramatic decline in oil and gas revenues that has the 87th Texas Legislature facing the prospect of needing to patch an estimated $4 billion hole in the current budget. And in the legislative session that begins Tuesday, lawmakers are looking at a $10 billion to $20 billion deficit as they begin building the next two-year state budget.
“Nothing else happens untilwe come to grips with this budget wall,” said state Sen. Paul Bettencourt, R-Houston, chair of the Texas Senate Republican Caucus.
Texas is already relatively unique in American politics in that its Legislature meets once every two years for 140 days. This session will be even shorter. Not only will the budgetmess take up much of the early action, but the pandemic has placed restraints on gatherings that are going to make it harder for the House and Senate to conduct committee hearings and take public testimony on legislation.
While thatmeans fewer chances for the coronavirus to spread in committee hearing rooms, it also
means fewer bills getting heard and even fewer ultimately passing. Over the previous three sessions, lawmakers have filed nearly 7,000 bills per session with over 1,100 becoming law on average.
“We are going to have fewer bills — there is no question,” said state Sen. John Whitmire, a Houston Democrat who is starting his 38th year in the Texas Senate — the longest of any member.
But that limitation comes as COVID-19 and the social unrest from the summer have magnified some of the biggest issues of the day. Delivery of health care, the state’s growing uninsured population, the pandemic response, an antiquated unemployment compensation system, police reform and criminal justice reforms are just some of the issues competing for air.
“It’s all going to make it a really difficult session,” said Whitmire, who also expects a heavy dose of partisanship as Republicans aim to chalk up wins on issues that will please their supporters in the run-up to the 2022 elections.
As for the gambling and marijuana lobbyists, they’re making a spirited run at loosening the state’s strict laws on the basis they would drum up revenue. But first they would have to overcome fierce opposition from the Republican Party of Texas.
The budget
Lawmakers will get more clarity on the financial picture Monday when Texas Comptroller Glenn Hegar releases his revenue projections for the next two years.
“Having been through several multibillion-dollar shortfalls, I want everyone to understand this is going to be difficult,” said Senate Finance Chair Jane Nelson, a Republican from North Texas. “We must maximize federal aid, findmore efficient ways to deliver services and re-establish our priorities.”
But while the exact size of the budget problem isn’t clear yet, there are some near-guarantees in Texas politics.
“Tax increases are completely off the table,” said state Rep. Giovanni Capriglione, a Republican from Southlake who leads the House Appropriations Committee, at a forum organized by the Texas Tribune.
That leaves lawmakers to either slash government services or seek out new revenue.
A top priority will likely be protecting a public school funding increase adopted two years ago that gave pay raises to teachers and
other school employees while also slowing property tax increases for schools. That is expected to cost upward of $13 billion over two years.
“I don’t want those things to go away,” said Sen. Carol Alvarado, a Houston Democrat who chairs the Texas Senate Democratic Caucus.
Pandemic response
The pandemic has highlighted
the state’s lousy track record on health care, said state Sen. Jose Menendez, D-San Antonio. Texas leads the nation in the number of uninsured people, and the state’s lack of sufficient health care facilities in rural Texas has been exposed as health officials have scrambled to find enough beds to take care of coronavirus patients.
“It’s time we expand access to health care for all Texans,” Menendez said.
Nearly 30 percent of Texans under the age of 65 did not have health insurance before the pandemic hit, and the economic fallout resulted in thousands more losing jobs and health care coverage.
But the barriers are clear. Expanding Medicaid coverage would mean embracing the Affordable Care Act, something Republicans have declined to do for more than a decade, concerned that federal funding for the program will erode.
Medicaid already accounts for more than 30 percent of the state budget.
Other pandemic-related issues, such as future funding for the state’s public health system and the state’s vaccine rollout, will compete for time on the Legislature’s crowded agenda.
Social justice
The killing of former Houston resident George Floyd has made the call for police and criminal justice reforms a pressing issue. Floyd, a 46-year-old Yates High graduate, died in police custody as a bystander recorded video of an officer pinning him to the ground, pressing a knee into Floyd’s neck for more than seven minutes.
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott called the death “the most horrific tragedy I’ve ever personally observed.” Abbott in June declared his commitment to work with the Legislature “to make sure that we prevent police brutality like this from happening in the future in Texas.”
Houston Sen. Borris Miles, a Democrat, is among legislators who have filed dozens of bills calling for a host of changes, including ending chokeholds, requiring police departments to better report cases of excessive force and enacting tougher penalties for police who try to cover up abuse.
“Now is the time for Texas to act and pass meaningful police reform legislation,” Miles said.
But the tenor of those debates changed during the 2020 elections, as Republicans seized on calls for “defunding the police,” particularly criticizing the Austin City Council for shifting money fromthe police department to social service programs.
Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick have both made a public show of calling for repercussions for any city and county that cuts police budgets. Abbott said there is still a need for police reforms, but he will fight to keep cities from going too far.
‘Elections matter’
Typically in years before a gubernatorial election cycle when most of the state’s top leaders are up for re-election, the Legislature veers to the right politically, said University of Houston political science professor Brandon Rottinghaus. Republicans still see primary challengers as bigger threats to their jobs than challenges from Democrats, given that it’s been over 25 years since any Democrat has won a statewide office.
That means this is the best chance for Republican leaders including Abbott and Patrick to prove their conservative orthodoxy with red-meat issues such as abortion restrictions, expanding gun rights and pushing back against labor unions.
Already, Republicans have telegraphed some of the issues they want to take up.
In December, a Texas Senate committee held a virtual hearing focused largely on new abortion restrictions.
They’ve also made clear they will rein in powers of local governments run by Democratic officials and toughen restrictions on voting in the name of preventing voter fraud.
Whitmire said Democrats’ missed their best chance to limit those efforts on Nov. 3, Election Day.
Republicans kept their commanding majorities in the House and Senate and have the power to block Democrats on any issue.
“Elections matter,” Whitmire said.