Death toll could swing number of seats states send to D.C.

The human loss from the coronavirus will not be reflected in the 2020 census because of a matter of timing, which could save a congressional seat for New York but cost Alabama one.

Because the start of the pandemic in the United States and the April 1 reference date used for the census fell so close to each other last year, the deaths that began in mid-March will not show up in the state population figures that determine political representation in Congress.

The timing will paper over the losses from the virus, which has killed around 44,000 people in New York state, including concentrations in some New York City neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. Alabama has reported around 8,000 virus-related deaths.

New York still is projected to lose at least one seat, but the quirk in the calendar should ensure that the state gets the last of the 435 congressional seats by a margin of more than 20,000 people, and that would save it from losing a second congressional seat, said Kimball Brace, a redistricting expert at Election Data Services.

“When you get to that last seat or two, any little change could have an impact,” Brace said.

The once-a-decade headcount of every U.S. resident determines the number of congressional seats, and Electoral College votes, each state gets. Redistricting experts estimate that 10 congressional seats will shift among 17 states when the Census Bureau releases apportionment numbers by April 30.

The April 1 reference means people were required to use that date in answering census questions. If the reference date had been July 1, Alabama would keep its seventh seat by a more than 6,200-person margin. But that would cost New York a second seat, reducing its number of representatives in the House from 27 to 25, according to Brace’s analysis. By the start of July last year, New York had experienced more than 32,000 virus-related deaths.

Both Brace and William Frey of the Brookings Institution predict that Texas will gain three seats, Florida two seats, and an extra seat each will go to Arizona, Colorado, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon.

On the flip side, Alabama, California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and West Virginia each stand to lose a congressional seat, according to Frey and Brace, though Brace estimates that New York could lose up to two seats.

Other states have close margins for either gaining or losing a seat. Montana’s seat gain would be by fewer than 5,000 people, and Rhode Island is expected to lose a congressional seat by fewer than 17,000 people, according to Brace.