Caserio facing tough choices
Cornerback or defensive lineman the likely pick at No. 67 — but don’t rule out a QB
Unless general manager Nick Caserio becomes a miracle worker and engineers a Deshaun Watson trade before the draft starts on April 29, the Texans will sit out the first round for the third time in four years.
Barring a trade, the Texans will be spectators until the third round. Caserio has proved he’s not bashful about making deals. At last count, he’s acquired 35 new players through trades and free agency.
It would be more surprising if Caserio traded up rather than down for an additional pick or two. Beginning with the 67th overall draft choice, the Texans have eight picks — a number that could change if Caserio makes more moves.
Everyone knows the Texans have a lot of needs on both sides of the ball for the start of the David Culley era. There are more needs on a defense that’s switching from a 3-4 to a 4-3 under new coordinator Lovie Smith, especially up front and in the secondary.
After doing two mock drafts, I’ve decided to have the Texans taking a cornerback or a defensive lineman who can pressure the quarterback in all of them. I’m leaning toward a cornerback because the position is such a glaring need, despite the additions of four free agents.
The last time the Texans didn’t have picks in the first two rounds was 2018. Brian Gaine was the general manager overseeing his first draft in place of Rick Smith, who traded up to get Watson in 2017.
Stanford safety Justin Reid was projected to go in the second round, but when he slipped into the third, Gaine took about two seconds to select him with the 68th pick.
What Caserio needs in this draft is a player the Texans have projected in the second round dropping into the third as Reid did, corners like Georgia’s Tyson Campbell and Syracuse’s Ifeatu Melifonwu, both of whom should be gone before Caserio makes his first pick. I imagine Caserio will respect his coaches’ opinions when compiling his draft board. Smith should have a lot of input because he’s changing to a new scheme and has many needs.
As I try to analyze the Texans’ needs and what prospects might be available when they pick, I’ve wondered what would Caserio do if there’s a quarterback he likes with the 67th pick, and which position is he least likely to take with that selection?
Let’s start with quarterbacks. Watson is on the roster for now, but Tyrod Taylor and Ryan Finley are expected to be the starter and backup when the season begins.
Watson wants to be traded and could sit out, or he could be suspended by the NFL or placed on the commissioner’s exempt list until his legal issues are resolved.
What might Caserio do if a quarterback he has projected for the second round is available for the Texans in the third? Prospects like Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond, Stanford’s Davis Mills and Florida’s Kyle Trask. Mond, Mills and Trask are rated in the second tier behind five predicted to be firstround draft choices: Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence, Brigham Young’s Zach Wilson, Ohio State’s Justin Fields, Alabama’s Mac
Jones and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance.
I believe Caserio will draft or sign another quarterback. Taylor lost starting jobs with the Browns and Chargers because of earlyseason injuries. Finley played in eight games and started four in two seasons at Cincinnati.
I’m guessing if there’s a quarterback Caserio likes in the third round, he’ll take him. He spent 20 years at New England with a quarterback selected in the sixth round, and that worked out pretty well for the Patriots.
Let’s say Caserio uses his first pick on Mond, Mills or Trask. The rookie would be given time to develop. If he eventually didn’t work out, the Texans could draft another quarterback in 2022 when they have their first- and second-round picks.
I think most of us believe the Texans’ No. 1 pick in 2022 will be at or near the top of the round.
With so much intrigue at quarterback this year, it’s a position that could tempt Caserio in the third round.
Now, let’s move to the position least likely to be addressed with the 67th pick.
It says here that position is running back, a position loaded with veterans. Caserio kept David Johnson with a restructured contract. He signed Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay, each of whom rushed for more than 1,000 yards in 2019.
Even though the Texans lack first- and second-round selections, this should still be an interesting draft because it’s the first time in his career Caserio has been in charge. He’s made moves at a dizzying pace during his 3½ months on the job, so it’s pretty safe to say he won’t be sitting on his hands during the draft.