Dems see reckoning for GOP in 2022
Party believes a shift to right will lose voters
Two years ago, Texas’ Republican leaders agreed to boost public education spending by billions of dollars, setting aside most of the incendiary social issues that had derailed similar efforts in the past.
But the GOP’s fixation on bread-and-butter issues — seemingly driven, at least in part, by a painful 2018 midterm election — proved to be fleeting. After Democrats fell flat in their lavishly funded attempt to retake the Texas House in 2020, Republicans responded by adopting a parade of conservative priorities this year, including the nation’s strictest anti-abortion law and an overhaul of Texas elections that prompted Democrats to leave the state for over a month to stall it.
While Republicans have touted their string of policy wins over the
After Democrats fell flat in their lavishly funded attempt to retake the Texas House in 2020, Republicans responded by adopting a parade of conservative priorities this year.
last few months, Democrats are already predicting a reckoning in the 2022 midterms, arguing that the state’s hard shift to the right went too far and will fuel Democratic gains at the polls.
“There is such a thing as a Republican who publicly — in their social groups, maybe at church — will profess to be hard-line about something, but when they finally get it, they realize that is not the world that they want,” said state Rep. Diego Bernal, D-San Antonio. “They might be pro-Second Amendment, but they may not like permitless carry. They may be pro-life, but they recognize the dangers of having an outright ban on abortion, especially without exceptions for rape and incest.
“Democrats don’t have to spin those issues. They just have to make sure people are aware of
what’s happened, because they honestly just speak for themselves.”
Even if the Republican policies have created some ammunition for Democratic candidates, the party also faces headwinds next year, including the tendency for a president’s party to lose seats in midterm elections — the same phenomenon that aided Democrats in 2018.
They will also need a major candidate to oppose Gov. Greg Abbott and his $55 million war chest. And the next round of redistricting, a top priority for the legislative session that begins Monday, gives Republicans a chance to shore up some of the seats Democrats are targeting.
Those factors, combined with national issues such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Biden administration’s messy exit from Afghanistan, have muddled the political outlook for Texas heading into 2022, said Renée Cross, senior director of the University of Houston’s Hobby School of Public Affairs.
“We’ve seen throughout history the midterms are traditionally very hard on the party in power,” Cross said. “However, we’ve got all these other variables that I don’t think we’ve really had to deal with before. In our generation, we haven’t had to deal with ending a 20-year war and a pandemic.”
State Rep. Jim Murphy, a Houston Republican who chairs the House GOP Caucus, noted that lawmakers also recently approved less controversial measures such as a one-time pension bonus for retired teachers, an expansion of virtual learning for public schools and extra foster care funding for the Department of Family and Protective Services.
Still, Murphy said Republican lawmakers adopted a more conservative agenda this session largely due to the results of the 2020 elections. He said Republicans returned to Austin with a mandate after Democrats failed to make a dent in the GOP’s statehouse majority.
“The zeal with which Democrats pursued incumbent Republicans really made a difference in how people entered the session,” Murphy said. “Those were tough races, incredibly expensive races. We had never seen that kind of money spent like we saw in the 2020 cycle.
“People understood what they were voting for, and when they made that choice, I think that compelled all of us to say, well, if that’s what they’re expecting, then we better deliver.” Republicans also believe the surge in migrant encounters along the southern border leaves Texas Democrats and President Joe Biden vulnerable on the issue of border security. Abbott has relentlessly criticized the White House’s approach and already blocked two of Biden’s major border initiatives in court.
Abortion law looms large
On top of the abortion and voting bills, Republicans in the Legislature passed laws this year banning “critical race theory,” allowing most Texans 21 and up to carry handguns without a license and forbidding large social media companies from blocking users based on their viewpoints. In the special session, they are again set to consider restricting which teams transgender student-athletes can join, a priority of Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick that has failed to pass multiple times this year.
Yet no issue has stirred as much controversy as Senate Bill 8, the new abortion law that effectively bans the procedure with its strict time limits. It empowers almost anyone to sue an abortion provider or other person who helps someone access the procedure after about six weeks.
The law, which took effect Sept. 1, makes an exception when a pregnancy is life-threatening, but not for those that result from rape or incest.
Though polling on the law itself is limited, a February University of Texas/Texas Tribune survey found that most Texans do not favor such a sweeping ban on abortions, with 81 percent — including 75 percent of Republicans — saying the procedure should either be always allowed or be permitted in cases of rape, incest, when the mother’s life is in danger or “after the need for the abortion has been clearly established.”
By passing the abortion law, Cross said, Texas Republicans jeopardized the support of moderate female voters, including those in the suburbs who supported Biden in the 2020 election after voting for Republicans in the past.
“I think it goes beyond just energizing Democrats. I think it also will energize a lot of women within the Republican Party that are pro-choice,” Cross said. “I really think they went too far. I understand that this is very important to the base, particularly the base of Republican primary voters, but I think in the long run, this is going to push those folks away.”
Days after the law was enacted on Sept. 1, Abbott was asked why the law would effectively force a rape or incest victim to carry a pregnancy to term.
Abbott responded: “It doesn’t require that at all, because, obviously, it provides at least six weeks for a person to be able to get an abortion” — failing to acknowledge that it takes four to six weeks for most women to realize they are pregnant.
Abbott’s comments drew condemnation from Democrats who said it showed a lack of understanding about the law. But he also came under fire from Republicans, including primary opponent Don Huffines, who said Abbott failed to “acknowledge the human value of all unborn children.”
Luke Macias, a Republican political consultant who is supporting Huffines, said GOP candidates should be prepared to clearly explain why they support the new abortion law during the midterms, instead of ignoring the topic or trying to appease moderate voters.
“I think (Abbott’s) answer to that is a perfect example of why he’s not prepared to actually defend this issue at the ballot box. You need to be a tireless advocate for this,” Macias said. “When you have a governor who tells Texans, ‘Don’t worry, rape victims have plenty of time to abort their children before they’re impacted by this law,’ that is literally just dooming more Republicans to having problems down the ballot.”
Abbott’s spokeswoman has not responded to questions about the governor’s remarks.
Public safety issues
While Democrats believe they have found winning issues on abortion and, perhaps, the Legislature’s modest power grid reforms in the wake of February’s winter storm, Republicans see an advantage on border security and the broader topic of public safety.
Earlier this month, the Legislature roughly tripled the state’s border security budget, devoting $1.8 billion to the construction of a barrier along the Rio Grande and ramping up the state’s law enforcement presence in the region. Though the bill mostly passed along party lines, a handful of Democrats who represent border districts broke with their party to support it, citing the massive uptick in migrants crossing the border this year.
In the public safety arena, Republicans also passed bills this year that limit the ability of defendants to be released on cashless bail and punish cities if they reduce their police budgets. Though few elected Democrats have actively embraced calls to “defund” police, members of both parties say Republicans were able to use the issue to exceed expectations in parts of Texas’ suburban and border communities in 2020.
Adrienne Peña-Garza, chair of the Hidalgo County Republican Party, said border residents — many of whom work in law enforcement or for U.S. Customs and Border Protection — are embracing Abbott’s border plan, which includes arresting migrants on state trespassing charges in an attempt to dissuade them from crossing. Democrats say the funds would be better aimed at the ports of entry where the majority of drugs pass through.
“People are relieved,” PeñaGarza said. “There’s people on both sides of the aisle that are seeing that the Biden administration isn’t doing enough about it. And it’s evident that Texas is going above and beyond with this border spending bill to help remedy what the Biden administration has failed to do.”
An August UT/Tribune poll found that 47 percent of Texans approve of Abbott’s plan to spend state funds on a barrier along the southern border, while 39 percent oppose it. In the same poll, 37 percent of Texans said the state was not spending enough on border security, compared with 24 percent who said it was spending too much.
Colin Strother, a Democratic strategist who works for numerous lawmakers in border districts, said most border Democrats are likely safe in 2022, noting that many down-ballot candidates outperformed Biden in the border counties where Trump gained ground last year.
Still, Strother said, candidates elsewhere in Texas and in other states could suffer if Republicans control the messaging on border security.
“The Biden administration needs to get control of the situation on the southern border, not just for those local communities that are very heavily and seriously impacted by it, but because of the sentiment that the stereotype of open borders has nationally,” Strother said. “I believe on our current trajectory, we are going to have a really tough time nationally maintaining our (U.S. House) majority unless something pretty dramatic and drastic happens.”