THE LOWDOWN
The Texans face the Jaguars in their final home game on Sunday. They’ve won nine straight against the Jaguars, but Jacksonville has won four of its last five games. Texans beat writers Brooks Kubena and Jonathan M. Alexander discuss that and more in this week’s preview.
Why should Jaguars play their starters?
Alexander: If I’m Doug Pederson, I’m resting my best players. This game has the stakes of a preseason game. The result won’t affect whether they get in, so why risk injury? He told Jacksonville reporters this week that believes every game matters, and while that’s certainly the case, the most important game is that Week 18 game against Tennessee, which will decide who gets in the playoffs. An argument could be made that the Jaguars are hot right now, having won four of their last five, and resting players could potentially disrupt the momentum. And to some degree, I get that. But the negatives of playing your best players in an otherwise meaningless game far outweigh the positives.
Kubena: The simple answer is to maintain a rhythm. The Jaguars were 2-6 almost midway through the season, and the team’s highly talented roster is finally playing to its potential during a three-game win streak. Trevor Lawrence has the best quarterback rating among starters since Week 9 (108.2) and has thrown for 14 touchdowns and just one interception. Meanwhile, Jacksonville’s defense has forced four interceptions, four fumbles and logged 10 sacks in the last three games. This isn’t a bye week. If the Jags wanted to rest players, they’d have to field a different lineup, and that could possibly throw players collectively off their rhythm. I’m no purist. Meaningless football games exist, although Pederson insisted “there is never a meaningless game.” Jacksonville locks up homefield advantage in the first round simply by being a division champion, and it’s impossible for them to host a playoff game against anyone other than the Dolphins or Chargers. And while maintaining a rhythm is important, the Bengals sat Joe Burrow in the regular season finale last season before their unlikely run to Super Bowl LVI. But the Jaguars aren’t technically a playoff team yet. Pederson wants to be sure they’re still playing like one against the Titans.
How far away are the Texans from winning a weak AFC South?
Alexander: The Texans are not that close to winning the division. The Jaguars have the pieces in place currently to be contenders for the next few years. Lawrence is hitting his stride and that’s dangerous. Pederson is a great and proven coach. The Texans, meanwhile, are still young. Many of their starters are either rookies or are on one- and two-year contracts. There hasn’t been much continuity with this franchise in recent years. The biggest thing is the Texans have to find their quarterback and they haven’t done that. Until the Texans do, and add other pieces, they won’t be able to keep up. General manager Nick Caserio should show urgency. They’ll be in a much better salary cap situation than they were last season and they have a bevy of picks. They also have a couple of tackles up for contracts that they can sign to begin that foundation.
Kubena: Let’s just take a moment and remember how
much of a laughingstock the Jaguars were last year at this time. They’d lost to the Texans twice. They’d fired Urban Meyer. Their entire on-field operation embodied embarrassment and dysfunction. Crazy how productive one offseason can be, isn’t it? Of course, the Jaguars already had a No. 1 overall quarterback on their roster. That helped. They also couldn’t more clearly have known Meyer wasn’t fit to be their head coach going forward. Jaguars owner Shahid Khan wants to win a Super Bowl, just like Cal McNair does, and while it helps when the bar to reach the playoffs is lower, no ownership group is going to alter their pursuit to build exemplary and sustainable success just because mediocrity suddenly suffices in a given year. The Titans were 12-5 last season, and it hasn’t helped them that Ryan Tannehill has already missed four games this year with injuries. The Jaguars also appear to be ascending, so I wouldn’t count on next year’s AFC South playoff picture mirroring this one. For that reason, the Texans are realistically on pace for division contention as early as 2024. But that doesn’t change the franchise’s urgency. McNair wants to field a respectable team and recapture a Houston fan base that once sat on waitlists for season tickets. Caserio knows he must show progress within his six-year contract. When teams like the Jags and Bengals can make turnarounds quickly, the Texans shouldn’t more forgivably afford patience for status quos to develop into something better.
Are the Jaguars a model to follow?
Alexander: The Jaguars were in the perfect situation. They had a great salary cap situation heading into the offseason. They had drafted their franchise quarterback the year before. And they had the No. 1 pick for the second year in a row. So ideally, yes. This would be the model. But the Jaguars had their foundation built before they spent big in free agency. The Texans have got to lock down their two offensive tackles — Tytus Howard and Laremy Tunsil — first, their rookies must continue to develop, and the Texans have got to find their franchise quarterback. They can’t overspend for free agents that haven’t produced consistently just because the Jaguars did it. This will be perhaps the most important offseason for the Texans in recent years. They’ve got to get it right.
Kubena: When the Jaguars hit rock bottom in 2020 with a 1-15 record, they’d lost five games by four points or fewer. They had no security at quarterback with Gardner Minshew, and although Doug Marrone was a veteran coach who’d brought the franchise within one game of its first Super Bowl appearance, neither Marrone or Minshew was around the next season. GM Trent Baalke spent the No. 1 overall pick on Lawrence, used the pick to entice Meyer, and although that coaching decision ended up being disastrous, Baalke spent an NFL-leading $324.8 million on 13 free agents last offseason to supplement the draft picks that helped engineer their playoff season in 2022. No comparison is identical. But the Texans appear to be in somewhat of a blend of Jacksonville’s trajectory. They have a No. 1 overall pick. They need a quarterback. They have the league’s eighthlargest cap space in 2023, according to Over the Cap, and they can sweeten deals with prospective free agents by backloading contracts in future seasons in which the Texans have even more available space. Beyond quarterback, the Texans need significant upgrades at wide receiver and along their offensive and defensive fronts. There aren’t too many elite options at receiver in the free agency market for Caserio to sign a Christian Kirk-Zay Jones type tandem. Perhaps he’d use his wealth of draft picks for a sign-and-trade situation like how the Dolphins secured Tyreek Hill last season. But Houston’s tendency to surrender explosive plays while supplying too few of its own must be addressed.
Will the Texans ruin their chances at the No. 1 pick?
Alexander: I think so. I predicted the Texans to lose to the Jaguars, but I expect them to beat the Colts in their Week 18 season finale. The Colts are just a horrible team right now, and I think the Texans (2-12-1) are playing with confidence and are fairly healthy right now. Meanwhile, the Bears (3-12) don’t appear to have an easy game left. They face the Lions this week and the Vikings. While both games are certainly winnable, especially if the Vikings rest their starters in Week 18, I think the Bears lose out. And if that’s the case, then the Texans, with a win, will end up with the second pick, which really isn’t bad because the Bears aren’t going to draft a quarterback. They may field calls from other teams, but Justin Fields is showing he’s the long-term answer. As long as the Texans end up with one of the top two picks, they are set.
Kubena: I’m certainly less confident that the Bears will win one of their next two games than I am the Texans. The
Bears play the playoff-contending Lions on Sunday, and the Vikings will want to secure more homefield advantages in the playoffs by winning their regular season finale. The Jaguars don’t appear like they’re going to take Sunday’s game against the Texans off. But the Colts are so horrendously bad right now that I can’t see the Texans not finishing their season with at least one more win. Maybe the Texans will tie them again instead. Again, no comparison is identical. But when the Jets won two of their final three games in 2020 under Adam Gase (who was fired after the season), they lost their No. 1 pick to the Jags and selected Zach Wilson No. 2 overall. No GM wouldn’t prefer having full security over who they pick, and the Texans don’t want to be in a position where they must pick a quarterback but not the one they fell in love with. As you said, Jonathan, if the Bears don’t pick a QB at No. 1, they might trade that pick to someone else who will.