Hot stove still waiting to heat up
Bullpen, catching depth on the agenda at winter meetings
As baseball’s winter meetings near, the Astros’ roster needs remain the same as when general manager Dana Brown outlined them at the onset of the offseason. Relief pitching, a backup catcher and, perhaps, a starting pitcher are the priorities, Brown has said. Each is still unsettled.
Houston’s offseason activity so far has included the selection of Joe Espada as manager and a reported restocking of its scouting department after former scouting director Kris Gross left for a role with the Mets. With those areas addressed, Brown may now be freer to turn fuller attention to the roster.
League-wide, the first month of the offseason passed in relative quiet on the transaction front. Pending situations with several star players — including Shohei Ohtani’s free agency and whether the Padres will trade Juan Soto — likely played a part, and a flurry of activity could follow their eventual resolution.
Whether that will happen in Nashville, where team executives will convene for the meetings beginning Sunday, is unknown. But for the Astros, whose pursuits appear, at least, to be lower-profile, it provides an opportunity to further define how to bolster the necessary on-field areas this winter.
Here are several topics to bear in mind as the Astros’ brass heads to Nashville:
The payroll question
Houston saw three of its six most-used relievers in 2023 hit free agency in Hector Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek, who combined for 185 innings last season. While the Astros could look in-house for some bullpen fortification, Brown indicated at the GM meetings they would explore adding at least a seventh- or sixth-inning leverage arm to help bridge the gap to set-up man Bryan Abreu and closer Ryan Pressly.
The Astros also seek a backup for Yainer Diaz, who will assume primary catching duties next season. And Brown last month said he would be open-minded about acquiring a starting pitcher if such a player “falls in our lap and we can make it fit financially.”
Unclear is whether Houston will have the financial room to address all those areas through free agency. As the roster stands now, Cot’s Contracts and FanGraphs both project the Astros’ payroll next season to already be within $5 million of the first competitive balance tax threshold of $237 million for 2024.
While owner Jim Crane has not stated an intent to stay under the luxury tax, the Astros have exceeded the tax threshold only once in Crane’s tenure.
A few early signings offer a partial glimpse into this offseason’s pitching market. Reliever Joe Jiménez, who posted a 3.04 ERA in 59 outings for Atlanta in 2023, signed a three-year, $26 million deal to stay with the Braves prior to hitting free agency. Reliever Emilio Pagán, who had a 2.99 ERA with the Twins last season, signed a one-year, $8 million deal with the Reds with an $8 million player option for 2025.
Atlanta also signed Reynaldo López, who had a strong 2023 season as a reliever, to a threeyear contract with a $30 million guarantee. López will make $4 million in 2024, the Braves said in their announcement, on the type of backloaded deal the Astros could explore given their financial picture this winter.
Starting pitching is also expected to be pricey due to demand. The Astros, who return rotation depth, aren’t expected to eye the top of the market, yet even less-coveted names carry a cost. Luis Severino and Lance Lynn are veterans aiming to rebound with new teams; Severino signed a one-year, $13 million deal with the Mets and Lynn a one-year, $11 million deal, with a 2025 club option, with the Cardinals.
A veteran backup catcher should be less costly. Still, if room for Houston’s payroll to grow is limited, it will be Brown’s task to make the pieces fit.
Trade possibilities
One way to address needs and potentially mitigate the impact on payroll is exploring trade options. The Astros do have rotation depth that may expand if starters Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia return at midseason in 2024 from injuries, as anticipated. That depth, and the demand for starting pitching, could make it reasonable for the Astros to consider dealing from that group to fortify other roster areas.
As a counter, Brown has talked repeatedly of the importance of having rotation depth to navigate the season and, ideally, playoffs. And moving one or two pitchers from that group to the bullpen could be another, economical way to obtain relief help.
Houston ended last season with an outfield logjam that left Jake Meyers the odd man out in center field. Meyers’ name has surfaced in trade deadline rumors in recent years. Still, Brown recently mentioned Meyers as part of the projected outfield mix for next season. And if paring payroll is an aim, the effect of trading Meyers, who is not yet arbitration-eligible, would be minimal.
In recent days, multiple national analysts have suggested the Astros might listen to trade inquiries about third baseman Alex Bregman. The idea of Houston trading Bregman, a franchise cornerstone with no obvious replacement in waiting, appears highly unlikely. That the Astros would at least gauge interest, though, is not without reason.
Bregman is entering the final season of his current contract. He and Jose Altuve are both set to become free agents after the 2024 season. Brown, at the GM meetings, said the Astros would “look into talking to both” players about potential extensions this winter. Agent Scott Boras, who represents both players and has a track record of clients testing the open market, said at the GM meetings talks had not begun.
If the Astros aren’t certain they will extend or re-sign Bregman, who is set to make $30.5 million in 2024, there is rationale in listening if teams inquire about him. In a hypothetical trade, the Astros could create payroll space, address roster needs and improve their farm system. However, the Astros are built to and expect to contend in 2024. And trading their star third baseman would appear to conflict with that goal.
Brown has yet to publicly address the Bregman speculation, but it will no doubt be a topic of discussion at the meetings.
Rule 5 draft
The Astros may not be too focused on this annual event — they last selected a player in the major-league portion of the Rule 5 draft in 2017. But multiple Astros prospects could be of interest to other teams.
Houston added only one player to its 40-man roster, outfielder Kenedy Corona, prior to the deadline to protect players from Rule 5 eligibility. Those left unprotected included shortstop Shay Whitcomb, who hit 35 home runs between Double- and Triple-A in 2023, tied for most in the minor leagues.
Whitcomb was one of three Astros minor-leaguers Baseball America named as a potential Rule 5 draft selection next week. Outfielder Justin Dirden, who struggled at Triple-A last season after a breakout in 2022, and outfielder Colin Barber, who played in 2023 at Double-A, were also named by the outlet.
Rule 5 eligibility, of course, indicates some question about each prospect by his current organization. A player selected in the major-league Rule 5 draft must remain on his new team’s active roster for the full ensuing season or be offered back to his former team. This year’s draft will be held Wednesday.
The Astros had two vacancies on their 40-man roster as of Friday, spots they may prefer to preserve for other potential acquisitions.