Demographics will play a big role in immigration reform

New voters, diversity are likely to affect Republican districts

As the debate over immigration reform rages during the current congressional recess, some House Republicans continue to oppose reform for “political” reasons. Unlike with a U.S. Senate or presidential election, where every vote truly does matter, they argue that their gerrymandered districts aren’t affected by immigrants and don’t need to factor this group or their concerns into their political calculus.

The math, however, tells a very different story, and many Republican districts won’t be safe much longer.

A new analysis of immigration trends and demographic composition of U.S. House districts shows that many Republican congressional districts have emerging electorates that care deeply about immigration reform.

Many Republican representatives will see their constituency profiles evolve in the coming years. Asian and Latino youth and newly naturalized U.S. citizens will make up 34 percent of newly eligible voters in 55 Republican-held congressional districts.

Take for example Republican Rep. Ted Poe, of Texas’ 2nd Congressional District. The district, which includes parts of Houston and eastern and northern suburbs, is more than half white. But come time for the 2014 elections, nearly 51 percent of all the newly eligible voters in his district will be either recently naturalized immigrants or Asian or Latino youth who turned 18 before the election and will be eligible to cast a ballot.

Rep. Pete Sessions, a Republican representing Texas’ 32nd Congressional District, is chair of the House Rules Committee, the committee that will determine which immigration bills, if any, are considered by the House. In 2014, almost half of the new voters in Sessions’ Dallas-area district will either be young Asians, young Latinos or new citizens.

Poe and Sessions ignore these demographic shifts at their own political peril.

These patterns are repeated in Republican districts across the country and reflect a larger narrative of American racial and ethnic change. Forty years ago, our country was 83 percent white and 95 percent native-born. Today, those figures have dropped dramatically.

Demographic shifts carry political power. Together, these new voters add up to more than the entire population of the state of Iowa. That would be one interesting straw poll.

In certain states and congressional districts, the impact of these new voters will be even greater. In Texas, for example, these groups will constitute more than half of all newly eligible voters in 2014. In Florida, they will be 45 percent. California tops the list, where young Asians, young Latinos and recently naturalized U.S. citizens will make up 68 percent of the new voters in 2014.

This is not a one-time event. The impact stretches across future election cycles and its influence grows over time.

Some members of Congress are struggling over their vote on immigration reform because safely drawn districts have given many of them the political cover to duck the need to reform immigration. That cover is pulling away, bit by bit, election by election, as American diversity changes the electorate.

Representatives contemplating a vote on immigration reform need to understand all the demographic dimensions of their district. Despite the composition of their current voters, members of the House need to see their electorate not only for what it is, but for what it will be.