Why is Europe so divided over migrants?

Answers may be in demographics: Some nations seek to replenish populations, others fear social rifts

As hundreds of Germans held up “Welcome Refugees” signs last weekend, much of Europe watched in bewilderment. “Germany is the only country that is welcoming us,” said Alalie, a 37-yearold from Damascus, Syria, and one of the thousands of refugees who arrived at the main train station in Munich.

Nearly all of the refugees had come from Hungary — a country with restrictive immigration policies and where many said the authorities had treated them inhumanely. But why are there such deep divides within Europe? Why do some countries welcome refugees, while others do everything they can to keep them out?

The reasons are many, but one stands out: demographics. In Germany, for instance, a rapidly aging population is becoming increasingly aware of the need to welcome foreigners. Other countries, where the aging trend is much less severe, have fewer incentives to welcome newcomers.

• Germany welcomes refugees to ease its rapid population decline

Empathy and the country’s Nazi-past — which forced many Germans themselves to flee the war — might explain the country’s enthusiasm for helping today’s refugees. But there is another factor that few would openly acknowledge right away: Germany really needs them.

“What we’re experiencing right now is something that will occupy and change our country in the coming years. We want this change to be positive,” German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Monday. She was referring to a popular argument in the country’s discourse on immigration in recent months: Germany is shrinking rapidly, and the trend is expected to get worse in the coming years. By 2060, there will be only about 68 million to 73 million people in Germany, according to current predictions by the country’s statistical office — compared with about 81 million now.

Already today, Germany lacks young, skilled workers. Companies are unable to fill hundreds of thousands of jobs because they cannot find enough applicants. On Sunday, Dieter Zetsche, the head of car manufacturer Daimler, said in a newspaper interview: “Most refugees are young, well educated and highly motivated. Those are exactly the people we’re searching for.”

European Muslims are indeed on average eight years younger than the rest of the population, a Pew Research Center study found. Daimler and other companies now want to search for applicants in refugee reception centers to fill their vacancies. Meanwhile, a first job portal has been launched on a website that is supposed to connect refugees with potential employers.

• Sweden takes in many refugees, but for different reasons

Such economic thinking makes Germany distinct from Sweden, which has recently taken in the highest number of refugees in Europe per capita, despite having a population that isn’t declining. Its government has historically been among the world’s most accommodating when it comes to refugees, which explains Sweden’s quick reaction in the current crisis. Although the Swedish government allows asylum-seekers to work immediately, chances of finding a long-term job are low. Nearly half of all foreign-born people ages 25 to 64 are unemployed.

“There just aren’t many jobs anymore for the very low-skilled,” Tino Sanandaji, a Swedish economist with the Research Institute of Industrial Economics, was quoted as saying by Al Jazeera English.

• Britain already has one of Europe’s most diverse and stable populations

Britain is among Europe’s demographic exceptions: It is predicted to become Europe’s most populous country by 2060 thanks to immigration and fertility rates that are higher than most of its neighbors, according to the European Commission.

Prime Minister David Cameron has recently focused on a resettlement program for 20,000 additional refugees that would allow in some of the weakest. British commentators have said this strategy puts moral considerations over economic interests, obviously referring to Germany.

• France is cautious because of a persistent rift within its society

Like Britain, France is among the few countries in Europe with a growing population, thanks to immigration and a high fertility rate. What is particularly striking about the country is its nationwide population growth, even in rural areas.

Meanwhile, the country is on persistently high alert: In Paris and in the rest of the country, police officers and soldiers patrol the streets to prevent potential terror attacks. January’s attacks targeting a Jewish supermarket and editors critical of Islam have not helped to bridge the rift between France’s growing immigrant population and its white majority.

• Hungary — and much of Eastern Europe — is missing out on a demographic opportunity

Contrary to France, many Eastern European countries face a population decline. Nevertheless, they refuse to take in more refugees.

Hungary, which has recently built a border fence, has become the most prominent case: The country’s prime minister claimed last week that he was defending European Christianity against a Muslim influx.

“Everything which is now taking place before our eyes threatens to have explosive consequences for the whole of Europe,” he wrote in the op-ed. “We must acknowledge that the European Union’s misguided immigration policy is responsible for this situation.”