Hispanic electoral clout still lags here
When Adrian Garcia announced his intention to run for mayor of Houston, the timing seemed reasonable. Although Garcia was forced to leave a good job — sheriff of Harris County — he had to trust that his name recognition would add to the growing Hispanic voting strength that pundits, politicos and public officials have talked about for more than a generation.
Now, after finishing a distant third in Tuesday’s election, Garcia faces the realization that Hispanic electoral power in no way matches its strength as a market force.
No matter how many Spanish-language media outlets flourish, and regardless of the ever-growing purchasing power of Hispanic consumers, the truth is that only San Antonio of Texas’ three
biggest cities has produced a Hispanic mayor.
Even in the second-tier cities, including Austin and Fort Worth, the list of mayors includes only one Hispanic name outside of El Paso: the largely forgotten reign of Gus Garcia, who held the job for two years in the state capital. Scouring the city government rolls in Amarillo, Beaumont, Lubbock, Tyler and Waco yields an impressive zero to have reached the top spot.
The Rio Grande Valley, with its low percentage of Anglo residents, has produced its share of Hispanic alcaldes, notably in Brownsville and McAllen. But in the big cities, San Antonio alone has put Hispanics in the mayor’s office — Henry Cisneros, Ed Garza and Julian Castro. Even there, where Hispanic political muscle began to make itself felt more than 30 years ago, a Hispanic surname is no guarantee of success. Longtime state lawmaker Leticia Van de Putte lost a June runoff election to Ivy Taylor.
The lack of mayoral success is somewhat surprising given that Texas has the second-highest Hispanic population and just less than 4 million registered voters.
Then again, the Hispanic community is more diverse and much less monolithic in its voting patterns, historically speaking, than African-Americans.
Sanchez fared better
For all his previous success in city council elections and in grabbing the sheriff ’s seat, Garcia fared much worse than Houston’s first significant Hispanic mayoral candidate, Orlando Sanchez in 2001. Sanchez lost 52-48 in a runoff with incumbent Mayor Lee Brown. Although Sanchez was a Republican, Hispanic voters turned out in great numbers to vote for him.
Hispanic political experts figured it was only a matter of time before Sanchez — or someone — soon would triumph in Houston. One political scientist, Tatcho Mindiola of the University of Houston, called the “phenomenal increase,” of Hispanic voters suggestive that a “benchmark election” had just taken place. It showed, he said, that “we’ve become major players and a force to be reckoned with.”
In the same vein, Hector de Leon, who was then regional director
of the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials, was enthusiastic immediately after Sanchez’s impressive showing and said the “Hispanic community won overall” despite the narrow loss.
But in 2003, with Brown termlimited out of office, Sanchez ran again and was trounced by Bill White. A dozen years later, the Hispanic vote is yet to translate into success in Houston and most other large cities in Texas.
“We have to be careful when we make generalizations,” said Jeronimo Cortina, a UH political science professor. “Local elections are low-turnout elections. And when we think about demographics, one has to remember the Latino population is very young. And we know they do not vote at high rates. That’s a disadvantage for those trying to rely on the Latino vote only.”
At the beginning of the race, it was generally thought that Garcia was a good bet to make the inevitable runoff with acknowledged front-runner Sylvester Turner. That made him a target not only of the other four top-tier candidates hoping to finish in the runner-up spot but also of Turner, who might not have fared as well against him head-to-head.
“He led the Sheriff ’s Office at a tumultuous time and he left when there were (still) a cloud of problems over the jail, and that came back to haunt him in the last stages of the campaign,” Cortina said. “He didn’t have a strong strategy to spin those issues. And once the other candidates started to get traction, they went hard after him.”
Tactical errors, poor timing
Veteran Houston political consultant Marc Campos, who has worked with the King campaign, said things might have turned out differently but for some tactical decisions of the Garcia camp. In any case, Campos said, Garcia’s candidacy showed that Hispanics can raise the money needed to successfully compete.
“Houston is about putting together the coalitions to win, and perhaps because Adrian got in so late, they were already lined up,” Campos said. “Here was an opportunity that was sort of missed. But yes, a Latino or Latina can be elected mayor of Houston. It can be done and will be done. Monday-morning quarterbacking is easy, and people can say if he would have done this or that, he might have been in runoff. If he had made the runoff, he very well could have won it.”
Cortina’s advice to potential Hispanic candidates for mayor. Be patient. Don’t despair.
“I think in the next couple of years, we are going to start seeing the awakening of the sleeping giant,” he said. “But in order to have that, they have to start registering more voters and getting younger people interested. The younger generations are completely disenchanted with the voting process.”
In other words, don’t assume the big increase in the Hispanic population means success at the polls will inevitably follow.
Unlike snack food, selling candidates, especially at the local level, means exciting the natural base and then being able to move beyond it. Campos pointed out that the Hispanic turnout in Tuesday’s election was about 20 percent citywide despite the presence of a well-funded Hispanic candidate with a good personal story.
“It would have been a different deal (in a runoff),” he said. “But 20 percent? You’ve got to do better than that.”