Deadline arrives on making Rasmus a qualifying offer
The Astros’ offseason won’t start off with an easy choice.
Their first major decision is due by 4 p.m. Friday, when all teams have to decide whether to extend qualifying offers to their free agents. Doing so guarantees draft compensation if the player — outfielder Colby Rasmus ,in the Astros’ case — leaves for another club. It also gives the player the option to return to the club extending the offer, which, under the system in place by MLB, is $15.8 million this year.
Rasmus, 29, was a bargain for the Astros as a free-agent pickup last winter at $8 million for one season. He’s expected to get a multiyear deal on the open market but receiving a qualifying offer would suppress that market some because if another team signs him, it would have to surrender a high 2016 amateur draft pick. Some clubs, particularly those rebuilding, would be reluctant to do so.
Plus, Rasmus’ market may already be restricted without a qualifying offer, because it’s clear how much he enjoys being in Houston. There are also big-name left fielders on the market — i.e. Alex Gordon and Justin Upton — to compete with.
One line of thinking would be the Astros have gotten the most they could have hoped out of Rasmus and might be paying for a level of production he’s unlikely to reproduce in 2016. He hit a career-high 25 homers last season and played in 137 games, more than he had since 2012. He continued his hot hitting in the playoffs, raising his profile.
One win above replacement has been estimated to be worth about $8 million on the open market, and Rasmus in 2015 was worth 2.8 WAR, per FanGraphs’ calculations. So if the Astros believe he’ll be worth close to at least two wins in 2016, then Rasmus’ potential acceptance of the offer would be palatable.
From Rasmus’ perspective, the offer of $15.8 million would come in well above the average annual value teams would pay him on a multi-year deal (a three-year deal at, say, $25 million to $30 million seems plausible), but it would also come without the promise of anything beyond 2016.
From the team’s perspective, Astros ownership also has routinely made very limited resources available compared to most teams, and Rasmus might not be the best application of those dollars. Why risk paying him at that price tag if the front office can find a bargain elsewhere?
The Astros could take comfort in this fact: Since qualifying offers were instituted in the most recent collective bargaining agreement, 34 have been extended, and none have been accepted.
Wouldn’t those odds tell the Astros it’s worth the roll of the dice? But at the same time, Rasmus’ situation doesn’t mirror most.
Whether the Astros offer Rasmus a qualifying offer won’t affect their ability to negotiate with him going forward.
No other Astros free agent would be a logical candidate for a qualifying offer. Free agent Scott Kazmir cannot be offered one because he was traded to the Astros during the season.