Azerbaijan, Armenia in new conflict
Nations agree to truce after heaviest fighting in more than 20 years
MOSCOW — More than two decades after a conflict killed about 30,000 people and displaced 1 million others, tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh have exploded again, with both sides engaged in artillery duels, rocket barrages and tank attacks.
A cease-fire declared Tuesday after three days of intense battles raised hopes for restoring calm to the area in the South Caucasus mountains. But fears loom of a possible escalation in fighting, with Turkey strongly backing Azerbaijan and Russia obliged to protect Armenia by a mutual security pact.
Clashes that began over the weekend marked the worst violence since a separatist war ended in 1994 and left Nagorno-Karabakh — officially a part of Azerbaijan — under the control of local ethnic Armenian forces and the Armenian military. Armenian forces also occupy several areas outside the Karabakh region.
Peace talks under the auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, co- sponsored by Russia, the United States and France, have dragged on ever since without producing any visible results.
While Armenia appeared happy with the status quo, energy-rich Azerbaijan, which has lost control of about one-seventh of its territory in the conflict, has been desperate to change the situation.
Both countries blamed each other for the latest hostilities, but many observers believe that Azerbaijan’s military unleashed an offensive aiming to seize some ground in order to make Armenia more likely to discuss a compro- mise in peace talks.
“Baku knows that one of its few tools of pressure on the Armenians is to violate the cease-fire and remind them that the status quo can be shaken,” Thomas de Waal, an expert on the region with the Carnegie Endowment, wrote in a commentary.
Azerbaijani leaders in Baku long have promised to win back the occupied lands, and President Ilham Aliyev may have been forced to act while a reversal in the country’s oil fortunes has tested public support for his government.
The operation in Karabakh was well-received in Azerbaijan. In the village of Gapanli, one of the areas hit hardest by the current fighting, residents enthusiastically welcomed the action against the Armenian forces, hoping Azerbaijan could win back the occupied territories.
“This is our land,” said villager Elmar Abdullayev. “We will stand up for our rights till the end.”
Both Azerbaijani and Armenian forces have used artillery, tanks and other heavy weapons on a scale unseen since 1994. Enemy losses were put in the hundreds, rival claims that couldn’t be independently verified and which were promptly denied by the opposing side. Each party put its own losses in the dozens.
When oil prices were high, Azerbaijan used its petrodollars to upgrade its military, with most of its new weapons, including heavy artillery, rocket launchers and tanks, provided by Russia.
If the hostilities spread, both Russia and Turkey could be pressed to protect their allies. Others warned that the developments could spin out of control.
“While other regional powers inching into the Caucasus, mainly Russia, Iran and Turkey, may try to curb fighting by backing a ceasefire, their own competitions could complicate matters,” the U.S. global intelligence think tank Stratfor said in an analysis.