Russian forces remain engaged in Syria
Despite withdrawal, sources say Moscow involved less publicly
MOSCOW — Russia’s war in Syria is slowly fading from view here, even as events on the ground give every indication that Russian forces remain heavily engaged.
President Vladimir Putin, when he talks about it at all, tends to refer to Syria as an accomplished victory yet hedges a bit.
“We did indeed withdraw a substantial portion of our forces,” Putin said in response to a question on his live national callin show Thursday. “But we made sure that after our withdrawal, the Syrian army would be in a fit state to carry out serious offensives itself, with our remaining forces’ support.”
A tightrope act
That support, according to numerous military analysts and diplomatic sources, amounts to virtually the same level of engagement since Russia first deployed in Syria in September. The tenor has changed, however. Syria is gradually becoming another more secretive, hybrid war of the sort that fits into Putin’s comfort zone, they said.
Russia’s agenda in Syria at the moment is a tightrope act. It wants to keep enough forces engaged in Syria to ensure it can influence any political transition, so that Damascus remains a client. Yet, it does not want to become visibly mired in a messy, prolonged war, as U.S. officials predicted it would.
“The level of Russian involvement in Syria is relatively high, and includes a wide range of assistance to the Syrian government forces,” said Mikhail Barabanov, a senior research fellow at the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.
Copters instead of planes
He and others suggested that Russia was providing close air support, including attack helicopters on the battlefield; highprecision strikes with missiles like the short-range Iskander; artillery support; special forces backup; intelligence; targeting; electronic warfare and, as seen recently in Palmyra, mine clearance.
Although the bulk of the fighter jets flew home to great fanfare, they were replaced by attack helicopters that are less susceptible to the sandstorms that blow this time of year.
Noting Russian news reports that private security contractors were replacing regular Russian troops in Syria, Alexander M. Golts, a veteran Russian military analyst and a visiting researcher at Upsala University in Sweden, speculated that the bulk of the force could become some kind of paramilitary organization not directly linked to the government — much like what Russia used to fight in southeastern Ukraine.
Putin explained initially that the decision to deploy the military in Syria was a fight against terrorism, but the Russian military mostly attacked moderate forces opposed to President Bashar Assad. Palmyra changed that perception somewhat.
“Moscow can now ask: ‘We took Palmyra from ISIS, and what have you done?’” Barabanov said.
Aid not open-ended
After the capture of Palmyra, the next target is unclear. Raqqa, the capital of the Islamic State, lies 140 miles away, but it is unlikely Russia wants to lead that battle. Aleppo, once Syria’s largest city, is held by a confusing patchwork of forces.
Putin has told a number of visiting envoys that he meant to send a dual message with his March 14 announcement that Russian forces would begin withdrawing, but could also ramp up again instantly, according to Arab and Western diplomats.
The first message was to the opposition — that it would remain in Russia’s cross hairs if it did not contribute to a negotiated settlement. Putin has also specified that he signaled to Assad that the Russian commitment was not open-ended.
One question is whether the intervention has gone too far and whether Assad feels emboldened enough to thwart the efforts that resumed Friday in Geneva to negotiate a political settlement under the auspices of the United Nations.
‘Putin needs Assad’
In Russia, events in Syria have been portrayed as a significant political and military victory, with Putin adroitly reclaiming the old Soviet title of global contender.
“The goal since Russia began the operation was just to show that Russia is a great power, that it is again sitting at the Yalta table solving the future of other countries together with America,” Golts said. “Putin needs Assad as a figure in this chess game. Not as a player in himself, not as an actor, but as a figure.”
In that vein, Assad has been lionized in Russian state television reports as a worthy, even noble ally.
Dmitry K. Kiselyov, the television anchorman who presides over the weekly news show “Vesti,” the main Kremlin propaganda vehicle, could barely contain his enthusiasm for the Syrian leader.
“I should note that Bashar Assad is in a great shape for being 50 years old,” he said. “He is a lean and elegant man. His manner of speaking is emotional and, therefore, infectious. He is courageous. His thoughts are deep and elaborate.”