Does China steal jobs? It might be losing them

BEIJING — Throughout his presidential campaign, Donald Trump has claimed that China is stealing U.S. manufacturing jobs.

In a speech to the Republican National Convention on Thursday, Trump said “disastrous trade deals” had hurt manufacturing jobs in the United States.

At one point, Trump’s argument had merit. With its large pool of workers who earned much lower wages than their U.S. counterparts, China attracted manufacturers seeking to reduce costs, bolster profitability and keep prices low. Between 1999 and 2011, the United States lost at least 2 million jobs because of a surge in Chinese imports, according to a study published in the Journal of Labor Economics.

In today’s China, however, workers face a more troubled outlook than Trump suggests. They are losing their jobs because of a slowing domestic economy, rising costs and stiffer foreign competition, including from the United States.

As China’s economy has expanded, creating opportunities in many sectors, assembly line jobs are not as attractive as they once were. That has caused managers to raise wages. At the same time, local governments have steadily increased the mandated minimum wage to improve the welfare of working families.

That combination has pushed wages for Chinese factory workers higher. Their monthly pay now averages $424, 29 percent more than just three years ago, the Japan External Trade Organization has estimated. Labor costs in China are now significantly higher than in many other emerging economies.

In a 2015 study, the Boston Consulting Group said the costs of manufacturing in China’s major export-producing zone were almost the same as in the U.S.

Without the lure of large cost savings, more U.S. companies are “reshoring,” or moving factories back. In a separate survey of large U.S. manufacturers conducted by BCG last year, 24 percent said that they were actively shifting production home from China or were planning to do so over the next two years, up from only 10 percent in 2012.