Iran balancing regional might, appeal to West
Contradicting actions part of two-track policy
TEHRAN, Iran — Just as opponents of the nuclear deal with Iran had warned, Tehran seems to be moving aggressively to expand its regional influence while working to counter American interests throughout the Middle East.
Yet, just as proponents of the deal had promised, Iran is also opening up, cutting deals with Western businesses, establishing phone links with the U.S., speeding up the internet, welcoming European tourists and relaxing social restrictions on its people.
What would seem to be a puzzling contradiction is in fact a carefully thoughtout, two-track policy being pursued by the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and the circle of leaders around him.
Khamenei regularly issues broadsides against the U.S., promising no softening of Tehran’s stance against the Great Satan, while quietly opening the door to Western capital and expertise.
Duplicating the U.S.
And yet, when President Hassan Rouhani faces attacks from hard-liners, Khamenei almost always has his back, in private.
“Yes, it is part of our new policy to show our strength, but also to reach out to the West,” said Saeed Laylaz, an economist and political analyst close to the government of Rouhani. “Both are aimed at strengthening our country and increasing our influence. A contradiction? We are doing exactly what America has been doing for decades.”
There is little doubt that Iran is exerting greater force in the region. On the battlefields of Syria, Iranian advisers and “volunteers” — often Afghans and Shiite militias — are fighting and dying alongside Syrian government troops to drive rebels out of Aleppo. Near Mosul, Iraq, the Popular Mobilization Forces, another name for dozens of Shiite militias, are taking cues from other advisers, usually associated with the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guards.
Change in politics
With the region in such turmoil, this might seem like an inopportune time to soften restrictions on business dealings with the West and personal freedoms at home. But that seems to be exactly what is happening. The changes are incremental and can be turned back at any moment, but they are unmistakable, analysts say.
The most obvious change is in politics. After dominating for 15 years, Iran’s hard-line faction — a conservative elite of clerics, military leaders and politicians — has suffered a string of defeats.
The hard-liners have lost battle after battle to a group of technocrats and moderates who were the only ones in the country’s small establishment able to talk to the West.
During the 2013 elections, the hard-liners lost to Rouhani, a moderate. Recently, Khamenei ruled out any prospect of a comeback for Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, still the only conservative with a strong following.
For two years during the nuclear talks with the U.S. and other world powers, the hard-liners spoke out against any compromise. They lost. Parliamentary elections? Lost.
The shift stems from Khamenei’s decision to ease Iran away — for now, at least — from a rigid interpretation of its revolutionary ideology and end the isolation that has hampered the economy and frustrated young Iranians yearning to live in a “normal” country.
“In Mr. Khamenei’s view, we should be like China,” said Hamidreza Taraghi, an analyst with close ties to the hard-liners. “Have economic relations with the West, but without their political influence and neo-colonization.”