Osweiler knows how to beat Pats — really
The Texans’ starting quarterback is no Broadway Brock.
He won’t be making a prediction on Saturday night’s divisional playoff game at New England.
Brock Osweiler isn’t stupid. He knows the Texans are 16-point underdogs and have an 0-4 record in Gillette Stadium, including a defeat in the divisional round after the 2012 season.
The last thing anyone wants to do is to incite the Patriots (14-2), who are trying to elevate their playoff record at home to 16-3 since Bill Belichick and Tom Brady became the greatest coach-quarterback combination in NFL history.
Osweiler isn’t poking a stick into the Patriots’ hornet’s nest when he explains how to defeat New England.
Now, don’t laugh, but Osweiler knows how to beat the Patriots. No, really and truly, he does. It’s from experience. But actually doing it is another matter entirely, especially in Foxborough, where playoff hopes usually die in January.
Twice as nice
In 2015, when Osweiler played for Denver, the Broncos defeated New England two times — once in the regular season and once in the playoffs. Both games were played at Sports Authority Field at Mile High.
Unfortunately for the Texans, they’re trying to pull off one of the biggest upsets in the history of sports of any kind where the Patriots are the most comfortable, Gillette Stadium.
When the Broncos earned a 30-24 overtime victory over the Patriots last season, Osweiler was the starter. He completed 23 of 42 passes for 270 yards and one touchdown. He also threw an interception.
In Denver’s 20-18 victory in the AFC Championship Game, Osweiler watched Peyton Manning help beat the Patriots and send the Broncos to Super Bowl 50, where they dominated Carolina.
Whether Osweiler started or cheered for Manning, there was nothing secretive about the way they defeated the Patriots.
“It starts with ball security,” Osweiler said on Wednesday. “Any time you play in Foxobourgh and you’re playing against Tom Brady, he’s going to find ways to score points. He’s going to try and find a way to start the game fast.
“Whether they score the first touchdown or even the first two touchdowns, one thing I learned watching Peyton play a couple of times against Tom, you have to stay patient and believe in your game plan for the full 60 minutes.
“You can’t get down 10 points (or) 14 points and then hit the panic button. You need to stay on course with what you talked about all week.”
This season, Osweiler has been ridiculed for throwing 16 interceptions. He didn’t throw an interception in four games, all on the road.
For the first time this season, Osweiler has gone two consecutive games without a turnover. Coming off the bench at Tennessee and igniting the 27-14 victory over Oakland in the wild-card game, he accounted for four touchdowns, two passing and two running.
So what gives? It’s got to be more than merely being benched for Tom Savage and then returning when Savage suffered a concussion against the Titans.
All about turnovers
“He’s done a good job of understanding what the defense is showing him, the type of play we’ve called,” coach Bill O’Brien said. “He’s done a nice job of taking care of the football. He’s thrown the ball accurately, and he’s done a good job of managing the offense.”
For the Texans to have a prayer of coming close to the Patriots, Osweiler must have a third consecutive game without an interception or fumble. And that’s just to start.
He’s ready to play the Patriots. Preparation has never been an issue with him.
“He’s very prepared,” O’Brien said. “He works very hard at his preparation. He’s got the film at home, he’s got his iPad with him everywhere he goes.”
Osweiler will need every possible advantage, and then he’ll have to play a perfect game, the best game of his career, for the Texans to have any hope.
He knows where to start.
“If you are going to beat the Patriots, especially in Foxborough, you can’t have any turnovers,” Osweiler said. “If you have turnovers, you’re giving Tom additional chances to score points. Sometimes on a short field, and that’s never going to be good for your team.”
What has to be good for the Texans is for their No. 1 defense to force some turnovers, which is going to be difficult considering Brady threw only two interceptions to go with his 28 touchdown passes this season.
Osweiler is coming off his first playoff victory as a starter. He was a cheerleader during the playoffs at Denver.
“I loved it,” he said about the Oakland victory. “I was a little kid. I was having so much fun.
“Having confidence and believing in yourself and your teammates is huge in any game. This game (New England) is no different.”
If the Texans can shock the world, seeing would almost be disbelieving. john.mcclain@chron.com twitter.com/mcclain_on_nfl