Mexico weighs mixed signals in U.S.

Trump’s threats differ from aides’ reassurances

MEXICO CITY — In the White House, President Donald Trump was telling U.S. chief executives Thursday that the days of being treated unfairly by Mexico — on trade, on immigration, on crime — were over.

“You see what’s happening at the border: All of a sudden, for the first time, we’re getting gang members out,” Trump said, referring to his instructions to increase deportations of unauthorized immigrants. “And it’s a military operation.”

But in Mexico, his homeland security secretary, John Kelly, was saying the opposite, trying to tamp down fears of a military operation and to assure the public that U.S. soldiers would not be used to police the border.

“I repeat: There will be no use of military in this,” Kelly said at a news conference Thursday, appearing with Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. “At least half of you try to get that right, be-

cause it continues to come up in your reporting.”

Trump has a penchant for dropping unwelcome surprises during visits between the United States and Mexico. Last month, on the first day of a trip to Washington by Mexico’s foreign minister, Trump signed an executive order to build a wall between the two countries.

Then, this week, just before Kelly and Tillerson touched down in Mexico, his administration released policies that vastly expanded the potential for deportation of unauthorized immigrants.

Trump is certainly not the only U.S. president to clamp down on illegal immigration. His predecessor, Barack Obama, deported record numbers of immigrants, including gang members. But Trump’s actions and disparaging remarks about Mexico have helped push relations between the two countries to their lowest point in decades.

His steady stream of provocative policies and statements has enraged the Mexican public and left their leaders to consider their own leverage in the event of a meltdown in ties between the two countries, whether on trade, migration or security.

On Thursday, the contradictions between the president and his top staff raised a pressing question: Which version of Washington will come to bear on Mexico in the coming months? Will it be the aggressive approach of the president or the more reassuring stance of Kelly, who will be assigned to oversee some of the proposals likely to antagonize Mexico the most?

“Let me be very, very clear,” Kelly said, assuring Mexicans that the rules for deporting people from the United States had not fundamentally changed — another possible contradiction of his boss. “There will be no, repeat no, mass deportations.”

The statements during the visit offered a startling departure from past trips to Mexico by U.S. diplomats. Four officials — two from Mexico and two from the United States — walked into a large ballroom with grim faces and made carefully worded comments without taking any questions.

It was the kind of cautious staging normally seen after tough negotiations between adversaries, not talks between friendly neighbors. No one suggested that a breakthrough had been made.

“Two strong sovereign countries from time to time will have differences,” Tillerson said.

Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray of Mexico called it a “complex moment in the relationship.”

In the last month, Mexican officials have shown cautious restraint, and even silence, in response to Trump’s threats, often to the frustration of the Mexican people.

Their logic, officials say, is cleareyed: To descend into a fight with the United States would serve no one, least of all the Mexican people who are spoiling for a harder line against Trump.

But that is not to say the Mexicans are without recourse. While they are hoping to avoid a confrontation, the whispers of discontent have started to spread.

The minister of economy has said there will be no trade talks without similar talks on security and migration, twin areas of vulnerability for the United States.

And Videgaray, responding to a directive from Trump broadening the scope of deportations in the United States, has vowed to bring to the United Nations any actions by the United States to send non-Mexicans to Mexico.

Mexico is keenly aware of its leverage in the bilateral relationship: billions of dollars in agricultural purchases by Mexico, a decade of security cooperation to dismantle cartels and intercept drugs destined for the United States, and the detention of hundreds of thousands of migrants passing through Mexico on their way to the United States’ southern border.

On trade, putting aside the supply chains of vehicles and electronics engineered by NAFTA, agriculture is a major vulnerability for the United States. Mexico is an immense purchaser of U.S. farm goods.

The nation is the No. 1 purchaser of U.S. corn, dairy, pork and rice. Mexico purchased nearly $2 billion of corn in 2016 and also bought large amounts of soybeans, wheat, cotton and beef.

Mexico could also leverage its participation in the sharing of intelligence. The vast majority of drugs funneled — and tunneled — through Mexico are not for domestic consumption.